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中美双方为通胀斗嘴:都是你的错!

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小编摘要:金钱问题往往是这种关系紧张的源头;特别是通货膨胀。双方都不想为此负责,而宁愿等着对方妥协。这场“懦夫博弈”如何收场会左右今年下半年全球经济的命运。


假如美国和中国是在交往的男女,现在他们和对方说的会是:这是你的错,不关我的事。
If the U.S. and China were dating, this is what they would be saying to each other right now: 'It's not me, it's you.'
金钱问题往往是这种关系紧张的源头;特别是通货膨胀。双方都不想为此负责,而宁愿等着对方妥协。
As so often, money worries are the source of tension in this relationship; in particular, inflation. Neither party wants to accept responsibility for it, preferring instead to wait for the other to cave.
这场“懦夫博弈”如何收场会左右今年下半年全球经济的命运。
How this game of chicken plays out will define the global economy in the second half of this year.
对中国来说,大宗商品涨价很大程度上源自美联储(Federal Reserve)通过量化宽松和零利率政策持续对抗通胀乏力的行动,削弱了市场对美元的信心。
To Beijing, rising commodity prices owe much to the Federal Reserve's continuing campaign against disinflation through quantitative easing and zero interest rates, undermining confidence in the dollar.
而量化宽松虽然推高了金融资产的价格,美国房价仍停滞不前,失业率虽有所缓解但仍较高。对美联储来说,经济复苏依然脆弱,闲置产能抵消了通胀压力。
While QE has boosted financial-asset prices, though, U.S. house prices remain moribund and unemployment, while improving, remains high. For the Fed, the economic recovery remains fragile and spare capacity counteracts inflationary pressure.
在原材料涨价问题上,美联储反过来将矛头指向中国巨大的胃口。照这个观点,中国的经济仍与固定投资和出口紧密相连,并受到人为压低的人民币汇率推动。人民币升值会促使中国出口竞争力减弱,有助于中国向消耗较少资源的消费和服务型经济过渡,还会减轻以美元计价的大宗商品的成本压力。
The Fed in turn points the finger at China's rampant appetite when it comes to rising raw materials prices. Under this argument, China's economy remains too wedded to fixed investment and exports, abetted by an artificially depressed yuan. A higher yuan would help make Chinese exports less competitive and encourage a shift towards a less resource-intensive consumer and services economy, as well as easing the cost of dollar-denominated commodities.
若中国不同意这一点,中国通胀就是合情合理的结果,也对美国有好处,因为通胀会削弱中国出口的竞争力。
If Beijing won't countenance that, then Chinese inflation is the logical outcome and is also useful to Washington, as it makes Chinese exports less competitive.
两种立场都有一定道理。美国经济衰退结束后近两年仍在实施量化宽松政策,这着实引人注目。美国实际利率升高会为大宗商品价格降温,特别是在与其他国家央行同时上调的情况下,许多央行也在实施宽松的货币政策。
Both positions have some merit. It is remarkable that QE continues nearly two years after the end of the U.S. recession. Higher real U.S. interest rates would take some heat out of commodities prices, especially if raised in tandem with central banks elsewhere, many of which are also running loose monetary policy.
然而,若美国能被冠以冒通胀之险来提振就业的罪名,那中国也同样难辞其咎。早在量化宽松之前,中国就已经长期将人民币与美元挂钩,并在金融危机后向经济注入大量刺激资金。
Yet if the U.S. can be accused of playing with inflationary fire to bolster employment, so is China. Beijing's long-standing linkage of the yuan to the dollar and enormous injection of stimulus into the economy in the wake of the financial crisis both predate QE.
近期诸如施压联合利华(Unilever)暂缓涨价的措施显示出中国在不使用传统货币措施的情况下抑制通胀的复杂举措。
Recent measures, such as pressuring Unilever to postpone price increases, demonstrate the acrobatics required by Beijing to cool inflation if traditional monetary methods aren't used.
Lombard Street Research的乔伊列娃(Diana Choyleva)说,中国不愿大幅加息或允许人民币快速升值,原因是那样会损害大型出口行业和与政府关系紧密的借款人。价格控制虽然在短期内有效,但会在中期刺激消费和加剧供应短缺,从而使通胀更严重。
China is unwilling to raise rates sharply or let the yuan appreciate quickly because that would hurt big export industries and state-controlled borrowers with close ties to Beijing, says Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street Research. And price controls, while effective in the short term, encourage consumption and supply shortages in the medium-term, stoking inflation.
因此中国的压力看起来很大。中国缓慢取消了金融危机期间实施的刺激措施,现在正艰难地利用循序渐进且往往是非常规方法来遏制涨价。美联储的政策以及中东骚乱等事件对供应的冲击也加剧了压力。
So the pressure on China looks intense. Slow to withdraw the stimulus deployed during the financial crisis, Beijing now struggles to contain rising prices with gradual, often unorthodox, methods. Fed policy and supply shocks like Middle Eastern turmoil compound the pressure.
另外,与美国不同,由于人口结构的变化,中国正努力应对工资通胀,并且依然面临房价上涨的风险。
And, unlike America, China is grappling with wage inflation due to demographic changes and still faces the risk of elevated property prices.
在中国,生活成本大幅增加在历史上往往与社会动乱相关联。因此,中国陷入了两难境地,一方面担心通货膨胀对收入的挤压太厉害,另一方面担心高利率或人民币升值会损害经济增长并增加失业率。
Sharp jumps in the cost of living have been associated historically with social turmoil in China. Beijing is, therefore, caught between fear of inflation squeezing incomes too hard and higher rates, or a stronger yuan, hurting growth and boosting unemployment.
决策者目前所采取的政策方针让看好大宗商品的投资者高兴了,却难为了美联储,美联储不得不以总体通胀只是暂时现象的借口搪塞。
The current course of policy makers pleases commodity bulls while making life difficult for the Fed, which must explain away headline inflation as a temporary phenomenon.
不过,随着通货膨胀成为中国日益明显和迫切的危机,预计中国会先退一步。
But, with inflation a more clear and present danger in China, expect Beijing to blink first.
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2011-04-12 10:59 编辑:icetonado
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