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中国央行加息成热点 各路分析师诉观点

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小编摘要:中国央行在周二清明节假期宣布自周三起上调基准利率,将一年期人民币存贷款利率分别上调0.25个百分点。与此同时中国还在继续和通胀做斗争。


  

中国央行在周二清明节假期宣布自周三起上调基准利率,将一年期人民币存贷款利率分别上调0.25个百分点。与此同时中国还在继续和通胀做斗争。下面是各大金融机构分析师对此次央行加息的看法:
China's central bank raised benchmark interest rates Tuesday, a national holiday, lifting one-year yuan lending rate and the one-year yuan deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point each as the country continues to battle inflation. Analysts weigh in:
Capital Economics的Mark Williams:中国央行选择在今天加息有点让人吃惊,因为近几天来高层官员对相关问题的看法较为温和。但此次加息也并非完全出人意料。宣布加息可能会令市场担忧紧缩政策给中国经济增长带来的影响,但这些情绪不应被夸大。 此次一年期存贷款利率分别上调25个基点符合过去几个月来实施的逐步紧缩政策,不会大幅拖累经济。一年期贷款基准利率上调至6.31%,相对于经济增速来说仍然偏低。制约信贷增长的主要因素是银行可放贷资金的规模,不是贷款利率。
The timing of today's interest rate hike in China is something of a surprise given more dovish comments in recent days from senior officials, but the rate move is not entirely unexpected. The announcement may cause jitters about the impact tightening will have on Chinese growth. However these should not be overplayed. The latest increases of 25 basis points for one-year deposits and loans are in line with the gradual policy tightening that has been underway over the last few months and will not do much to slow the economy. The benchmark one-year lending rate now stands at 6.31%, still low relative to the pace of economic growth. The constraint on credit growth is the amount that banks can lend rather than the rates they charge. ? ' Mark Williams, Capital Economics
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)王庆:本次加息暗示将于下周初公布的3月份CPI的涨幅可能超出市场预期。目前我们对3月份CPI的预测是同比上涨5.2%。加息也意味着中国有关部门对潜在增长势头的可持续性充满信心。在我们看来,本次加息再次表明,提前实施的紧缩性货币政策和到目前为止货币发行和信贷增长的大幅放缓对上半年抑制高通胀来说是个好兆头。
This rate hike suggests that the March CPI that is to be released early next week may have surprised to the upside. Our current CPI forecast is 5.2% year-on-year for March. It also suggests that Chinese authorities are confident in the sustainability of underlying growth momentum? ? This rate hike underscores once again the front-loaded monetary tightening, which, together with the rather substantial slowdown in money and credit growth so far this year, bodes well for peaking of the headline inflation rate by mid-year, in our view. ? ' Qing Wang, Morgan Stanley
高盛(Goldman Sachs)乔虹和宋宇:我们相信,自年初以来实施的一揽子紧缩政策的整体力度足以为总需求增长降温,进而降低潜在通胀压力。由于从本质上讲,大部分紧缩措施往往是行政手段,是根据数量变化做出的,因此以价格为基础的政策工具(比如加息和人民币升值)应该被采用,因为我们相信此类政策工具分配资源的效率更高。不过话虽如此,由于加息幅度不大,我们相信利率上调25个基点更多地是在释放一种信号。展望未来,由于普遍预计CPI同比上升,我们估计政府在今年上半年将大致维持推行紧缩政策的立场。随着潜在通胀压力的降低,或许会有一些政策微调。
We believe the magnitude of the overall policy tightening package since the start of the year has been large enough to cool down aggregate demand growth sufficiently to lower underlying inflationary pressures? ? Given the nature of the most of the tightening measures tend to be administratively and quantitatively based, price-based tools which include interest rate hikes and currency appreciation should be welcomed as we believe they tend to be more efficient in resource allocation. Having said that, we believe the 25-basis point hike is more a signaling tool than anything else because of its small magnitude? ? Going forward, we expect the government to broadly maintain its tightening policy stance in the first half of 2011 given the expected elevated year-on-year CPI, though there might be some subtle adjustments as underlying inflationary pressures come off. ? ' Helen Qiao and Yu Song, Goldman Sachs
华侨银行(OCBC)Tommy Xie:今天加息对我们来说意味着三件事情:首先,继3月18日上调存款准备金率之后,今日加息意味着中国的紧缩路径不太受日本核危机的影响;其次,3月份CPI有可能超过5%;再次,中国的货币政策可能倾向于在上半年提前收紧。由于增长势头强劲,我们预计一季度中国经济增速仍将强力维持在9.7%。然而受紧缩政策影响,随后几个季度的增长步伐可能逐渐放缓。因此,中国在增长速度仍然很快的时候选择加息以对抗通胀就显得更有道理了。
Today's rate hike suggests three things to us. First, together with one reserve requirement ratio hike on 18 March, today's move signals China's tightening path is less affected by Japan's? ?nuclear crisis. Second, headline inflation is likely to be above 5% in March. Third, China's monetary policy may lean towards front loaded tightening in the first half of the year? ? Thanks to the strong growth momentum, we expect China's growth to remain strong in the first quarter at 9.7%. However the growth pace is likely to slow gradually in the next few quarters as a result of tightening measures. Therefore, it may make more sense for China to tighten sooner rather than later to fight inflation when the growth rate is still high. ? ' Tommy Xie, OCBC
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2011-04-07 14:10 编辑:icetonado
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  • tianjin35 说:

    中国人民银行、住建部、财政部公布《关于完善职工住房公积金账户存款利率形成机制的通知》,决定自2月21日起,将职工住房公积金账户存款利率,由现行的按照归集时间执行活期和三个月存款基准利率,调整为统一按一年期定期存款基准利率执行。 http://imgur.com/fI9hGoU http://imgur.com/EsRaRQu http://imgur.com/vgsh9ZX

    2016-02-19 03:27 回复 支持(1) 反对(0) 沙发
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