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美元升值 是受到中国政策影响?

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小编摘要:法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的分析师目前热衷于这个观点:中国让美元对人民币下跌,希望把越来越大的大宗商品进口价格压力挡在国门之外。

美元升值


阴谋论总是讨人喜欢。
People love conspiracy theories.
其中一个已经在外汇市场流传数月,没有完全熄灭的迹象。目前它正在经历一次小小的复兴。
One in particular has been doing the rounds in FX land for months, with no sign of fizzling out. Right now, it's having a mini revival.
论调是这样的:
The theory goes as follows:
中国正在买进欧元,从而蓄意阻止人民币升值过大。它的确是在允许人民币对美元升值,让华盛顿很开心。但通过购买欧元,却让人民币的贸易加权汇率保持相对疲软,给美元造成重击。
China is buying euros in a deliberate effort to stop the yuan from rising too far. Sure, it's keeping Washington sweet by letting the yuan climb against the dollar. But it's bashing the buck hard by buying euros, keeping the yuan relatively weak on a trade-weighted basis.
法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的分析师目前就热衷于这个观点。
The analysts at BNP Paribas are keen on this idea right now.
该行外汇分析师3月21日致客户报告说,中国让美元对人民币下跌,希望把越来越大的大宗商品进口价格压力挡在国门之外。也就是说,大宗商品价格正在上涨,所以中国在允许人民币升值,从而使得这些进口产品价格更低。
'China fixes [the dollar] lower [against the yuan] trying to hold increasing commodity import price pressure at the border,' the bank's currencies analysts said Monday in a note to clients. Translation: commodities prices are rising, so China is letting the yuan climb, to make those imports cheaper.
但巴黎银行接着说,中国似乎还没有准备接受人民币的整体强势,这意味着中国人民银行的外汇储备管理者将继续购买欧元。再给那些未掌握外汇研究报告阅读窍门的人们解释一下:中国仍旧希望保持人民币的整体疲软,所以它将继续购买欧元。
But, the bank continues: 'China seems to be not yet ready accepting general yuan strength, suggesting that the People's Bank of China reserve managers will remain on the euro bid.' Again, a translation for those uninitiated in the dark art of reading currencies research: China still wants to keep the yuan generally weak, so it will keep on buying euros.
巴黎银行说,在七国集团已经联手对日圆展开大规模干预的情况下,中国不可能非常容易地买到日圆,来从一个方面压制人民币汇率,所以这种购买欧元的行为可能会加速。
Now that the grand G-7 coordinated intervention on the yen has taken place, China can't very easily buy Japanese yen to help keep the yuan under pressure, so this euro buying is likely to accelerate, the French bank added.
这样的说法可能是对的,也可能是错的。到底是对是错几乎无法肯定,不过它与交易大厅内一直流传的一些闲言絮语差不了多远。只要欧元在没有明显诱发因素的情况下对美元上涨,交易员就归因于中国。很多市场观察者对这种想法不解,他们指出,虽然有存在了很久的欧洲债务危机,目前欧元对美元强势的其他原因还有很多种。至少欧洲央行(European Central Bank)很有可能在三周之内加息。如果美联储今年做同样的事情,美元也会受益。需要说明的是,巴黎银行也认为中国的购买并不是欧元走强的唯一原因。
This may or may not be true. It's close to impossible to tell for sure, although it chimes with persistent trading-floor chatter. Whenever the euro runs higher against the buck, with no obvious trigger, traders blame China. Many market watchers are nonplussed by this idea, pointing out that there's a good number of other reasons for the euro to be strong against the dollar right now, despite the long-running European debt crisis. After all, European Central Bank interest rates are set to rise within three weeks. We'll be lucky if the Fed does the same this year. To be fair, BNP Paribas doesn't think this is the only reason for euro strength, either.
但如果这种说法是对的,市场中最大的谜语之一──美元奇怪地走软──就得到了一定程度的解释。在投资者担忧的事情至少要写满两页的情况下,困难时期常被当作避风港的美元居然没有明显走强。
But if it is true, it goes some way towards solving one of the biggest riddles in the market: the curious case of the weak dollar. With investors' worry lists running into at least two pages, it's weird that the dollar--usually a safe retreat in times of stress--is not significantly stronger.
将此归因于中国或许是步入了歧途。但欧元的坚挺或多或少地有些奇怪。而在外汇市场,二加二至少会等于五。
Pinning this on China may be misguided. But the euro's resilience is somewhat odd. And two plus two makes at least five in the currencies markets.
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2011-04-01 11:37 编辑:icetonado
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