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Lex专栏:日本天灾过后谁最倒霉?

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小编摘要:日本的快速反应团队表现卓然。地震发生后仅仅几个小时,日本央行就开始向市场注入资金:到本周二,日本银行存款量达到了历史最高水平。与此同时,日本财务省就汇率干预问题促成了一项罕见的国际共识,帮助稳定了日元


日本的快速反应团队表现卓然。地震发生后仅仅几个小时,日本央行就开始向市场注入资金:到本周二,日本银行存款量达到了历史最高水平。与此同时,日本财务省就汇率干预问题促成了一项罕见的国际共识,帮助稳定了日元。如今,日本面临着一个更加艰巨但同样重要的任务:巩固复苏。
Japan’s rapid response team has distinguished itself. Within hours of the earthquake the central bank was pumping cash: by Tuesday this week, lenders’ deposits stood at an all-time high. The Ministry of Finance, meanwhile, brokered a rare international consensus on currency intervention, helping to steady the yen. Now comes a more laborious, but equally vital task: cementing recovery.
对于制造商而言,此次地震对7个都道府县电力和分销网络造成的破坏,远比神户大地震时更为集中于当地的破坏更为严重。神户大地震后,贸易放缓持续了几个季度。摩根士丹利日本三菱UFJ金融集团(MUFG)估计,日本第二季度折合成年率的国内生产总值(GDP)收缩程度将达到12%,这一估计似乎不是太离奇。对于保险公司而言,影响是巨大的,但是还能应付。非寿险公司的巨灾损失准备金约为最初损失估值的两倍,而国内大型寿险公司面临的额外索赔总额可能还不到它们2009年赔付金额的1%。在截至3月份的一年,大型银行如果提高贷款损失准备金的话,其利润可能会略有下降。地区性银行受到的影响会更为严重,但它们放贷出了名的少,这能为它们提供一些保护。在日本东北部地区最大的银行——仙台的77银行(77 Bank),去年9月底,该行贷款占资产的比例不到60%。
For manufacturers, the damage to power and distribution networks across seven prefectures is much worse than the more localised disruption of the Kobe quake, after which trade slowed for a few quarters. Morgan Stanley MUFG’s estimates of gross domestic product contraction – an annualised 12 per cent in the second quarter – do not seem too outlandish. For insurers, the impact looks material, but manageable. Non-life insurers have catastrophe loss reserves about double most early estimates of losses, while the extra claims faced by the big domestic life insurers may total less than 1 per cent of the claims they paid in 2009. Profits at the mega-banks may come in a little weaker in the year to March, if they boost loan loss reserves. Regional banks will be hit harder, but should be protected by their notoriously limited lending. At Sendai’s 77 Bank, the largest in the Tohoku region, loans were less than 60 per cent of assets at the end of September.
然而,国家财政受到的影响会更为严重。重建和投资必然会降低企业储蓄率——瑞银(UBS)估计,第四季度,日本企业储蓄为GDP的8.4%,接近几十年来的最高水平。确实,这是一个渐进的过程,即便是政府债券收益率大幅上升,可能也需要数年时间,才能逐渐转化为票据利率的大幅上升。但底线是,企业在弥补损失产能上每多花一分钱,就会少花一分钱购买日本政府债券。正如以前经常发生的那样,如果不看空日本政府的话,似乎很难做多日本。
State finances, however, will feel the impact more keenly. Reconstruction and investment necessitates a fall in the corporate savings rate, which on UBS calculations stood at 8.4 per cent of GDP in the fourth quarter, close to a multi-decade-year high. Yes, that is a gradual process, and even a steep rise in government bond yields could take several years to work its way into a significantly higher interest-rate bill. But the bottom line is that every yen spent by companies on replacing lost capacity is one not spent on a Japanese government bond. As often before, it seems hard to go long Japan, without going short the government.
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2011-03-30 14:29 编辑:icetonado
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