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中国工人薪资涨幅仍旧低于预期

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小编摘要:2011年的工资增幅为9%至15%。这比2010年10%的工资增幅略高,但比20%至30%这一许多人曾经预期的涨幅要低。


工人短缺和劳动力成本不断上扬会意味着中国出口奇迹的终结吗?今年还不会。
Will a shortage of workers and rising labor costs spell the end of China's export miracle? Not this year.
二月,深圳一家电子工厂新招募的农民工在排队。渣打银行(Standard Chartered)今年第一季度对87家制造业公司进行的调查显示,工人的工资在不断上升,但却不是许多人所害怕的大幅飙升。中国2010年出现的制造业公司罢工浪潮以及许多省份大幅上调最低工资标准使许多人担心,中国劳工的低成本时代正在结束。
A first-quarter survey of 87 manufacturing firms by Standard Chartered shows wages rising, but not the surge many feared. The wave of strikes at manufacturing firms in 2010 and sharp minimum-wage rises in many provinces stoked fears the age of low-cost Chinese labor was ending.
尽管中国一半以上的人口仍居住在农村,但30年来的经济发展以及劳动人口的日渐老化,却使能从农村转移到工厂工作的年轻力壮劳工越来越少。
Despite the fact that more than half of China's population still is living in the countryside, 30 years of development and an aging work force have depleted the supply of young, able-bodied workers ready to move from farm to factory.
但渣打银行的调查显示,2011年的工资增幅为9%至15%。这比2010年10%的工资增幅略高,但比20%至30%这一许多人曾经预期的涨幅要低。
But the Standard Chartered survey shows 2011 wages rising by 9% to 15%. That is a little higher than 10% wage increases reported in 2010. But it's less than the 20% to 30% rises many had expected.
鉴于中国的劳动力总数超过7.9亿,仅对87家制造业公司进行的调查可能涵盖面还是太小。但中国央行的家庭工资期望值调查也显示,今年的工资水平只有温和增长,增幅略低于上年同期。
A survey of 87 firms might seem thin, given the 790 million-strong labor force. But a survey of household wage expectations by the central bank also points to moderate increases, slightly down from the same time last year.
中国劳工观察(China Labor Watch)的李强估计,制造业农民工的工资水平继去年上涨10%后,今年将增长15%。中国劳工观察是一个调查中国出口行业工人状况的组织。由于中国没有关于农民工工资的官方数据,能得到些这方面的调查和估计数据就不错了。
Li Qiang of China Labor Watch, an organization that investigates worker conditions in China's export sector, also estimates wages for migrant workers in manufacturing will rise 15% this year after 10% in 2010. With official wage data on the migrant work force nonexistent, surveys and estimates are as good as it gets.
对中国经济来说,工资增幅低于预期短期看是好事,长期而言却是坏事。至少眼下,这意味着工资对通胀压力的推动作用会小些,而出口商的成本压力也会得到控制,人民币升值和原材料价格高企目前已经把出口商搞得苦不堪言。过去一年中,纺织品生产商不得不消化高达150%的棉花价格涨幅。
For China's economy, lower-than-expected wage rises are a short-term blessing and a long-term curse. For now, it means a smaller contribution to inflationary pressure and contains costs for exporters, already facing a squeeze from yuan appreciation and pricey raw materials. Textile producers are absorbing a 150% rise in cotton prices over a year.
但中、长期而言,出口商的所得就是工人的所失。工资水平的温和上涨对于增加工人实际收入、实现中国政府让海外需求与国内需求实现再平衡的目标都起不了多大作用。
Longer term, exporters' gains are workers' losses. Tepid wage increases will do little to put more money in workers' pockets or fulfill Beijing's aim of rebalancing from foreign to domestic demand.
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2011-03-30 14:26 编辑:icetonado
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