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我每年都会带着孩子们参观波士顿红袜队(Red Sox)的春季训练营,这个周末,我又带着两个儿子去了佛罗里达州的麦尔斯堡。在追着界外球跑或是找球员讨要签名之余,我们也花了一些时间,讨论未来会变成什么样子。最后我们列出了一张颇有争议的单子,我们称之为“2030年的10大预测”。
I spent this weekend with my two sons in Ft. Myers, Florida as part of our annual pilgrimage to the Red Sox spring training camp. While not chasing after foul balls (thanks, Youk!) and autographs, we spent some time talking about what the future might look like. We ended up making a provocative list of what we called "10, 2030" -- 10 predictions for the year 2030.
For context, my sons are 8 and 11. Looking back 19 years ago (1992), I realize that I had my first cell phone, dial up access to bulletin boards, a love affair with email and was doing consulting for AT&T on Apple's first mobile computing device, the Newton. In short, nearly 20 years ago, the fingerprints of the future were evident in the present. Similarly, my sons are seeing fingerprints of the future in what they see, read and hear about today. Trying to focus on the right things to extrapolate from, and having some fun with it, provided us with great entertainment.
So here are their top 10 predictions for the year 2030:
(1)我的三个孩子中,将有两个开上电动车——这个比例也是整个美国汽车市场的缩影。孩子们深信,届时石油将成为历史。不过根据国际能源委员会(International Energy Association)和《经济学人》杂志(The Economist)的说法,在未来的20年里,美国的石油需求并不会减少太多。
1. Two out of three of my children, as a reflection of the entire U.S. car market, will own an electric car (they are convinced oil will be a thing of the past, although according to the International Energy Association and The Economist, oil demand in the U.S. will shrink only modestly in the next 20 years)
2. School classrooms will be converted into all digital environments where individual student desks will be converted into desk/tablet computers with a touch screen per child linked to SmartBoards and the Internet with a host of available applications.
3. Advanced techniques in genomics will results in a cure for both cancer and ALS (others I'm sure, but those are the diseases my sons were most focused on due to our family history)
4. Super-fast, high speed trains will finally be installed on the Northeast Corridor, allowing Boston to NY travel to take 2 hours and NY-DC a mere 1.5 hours. My sons seem to think magnetic technology is the state of the art. I'm not sure where they got this factoid, but it sounded good to me.
5. Commercial travel to the moon will be possible and relatively common for super-rich thrill-seekers. Sort of like private jet travel today.
6. Voice-controlled, self-driving cars will be prevalent. Perhaps not even brought to you by Google.
7. No one will carry wallets any more -- all wallet functionality (payment, coupons, identity) will be embedded in your mobile device
8. No wires anywhere -- wireless power/electricity, wireless Internet, high bandwidth data will result in the taking down of telephone polls in large parts of the country. A corollary to this one is that my sons don't think hardly any homes will have landline, wire telephones any more.
9. Hover boards will be sold commercially -- still high-end devices, but useful for urban transportation as an alternative to bicycles. This one struck me as a stretch, but they're quite convinced of it, and they haven't even seen this hilarious AliG clip.
10. A woman will be elected president of the United States. I pointed out to them that there would only be four elections (not counting 2012 - sorry Sarah Palin) between now and 2030 for an American female head of state to be elected, but they were bullish on this one as well.
Here were a few that we discussed but were ultimately rejected as plausible, but not likely by 2030:
(1) 人类登陆火星。
1. Humans landing on Mars
(2) 悬浮汽车(就是可以在路面上空高速飞行的汽车)。
2. Hover cars (i.e., cars that floated above roads at high speeds)
(3) 被变成飞机的汽车
3. Cars that converted into airplanes
(4) 家用机器人包揽家务活,比如刷盘子、洗衣服、换尿布等。
4. Home robots that do household chores -- dishes, laundry, changing diapers
(5) 在其它星球上发现生命。
5. Life discovered on another planet
(6) 出现像纸一样薄的弹性屏幕,这种屏幕的设计就像一本书,你可以用电子墨水在屏幕上写字。不过它像Kindle电子阅读器一样,是一款电子产品,而且可以无线下载。
6. Electronic ink on flexible, paper-thin screens that mimic a book -- but, like a Kindle, download wirelessly and electronic
At one point, I mentioned to my sons that I might blog about their predictions because I thought they represented an interesting window into the future. My oldest got concerned and objected, "But Dad, what if we want to invent some of this stuff and people steal our ideas?"
本文作者Jeffrey Bussgang是风险投资机构Flybridge Capital Partners的普通合伙人
Jeffrey Bussgang is general partner at venture capital firm Flybridge Capital Partners.
标签:2030年 预测
2011-03-23 09:47 编辑:kuaileyingyu