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2030年10大预测

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小编摘要:这些点子来自于两个孩子,他们通过现在所看到、读到和听到的东西,看到了未来的发展轨迹。

 

 

我每年都会带着孩子们参观波士顿红袜队(Red Sox)的春季训练营,这个周末,我又带着两个儿子去了佛罗里达州的麦尔斯堡。在追着界外球跑或是找球员讨要签名之余,我们也花了一些时间,讨论未来会变成什么样子。最后我们列出了一张颇有争议的单子,我们称之为“2030年的10大预测”。
I spent this weekend with my two sons in Ft. Myers, Florida as part of our annual pilgrimage to the Red Sox spring training camp. While not chasing after foul balls (thanks, Youk!) and autographs, we spent some time talking about what the future might look like. We ended up making a provocative list of what we called "10, 2030" -- 10 predictions for the year 2030.
需要指出的是,我的两个儿子一个8岁,一个11岁。回首19年前,那时我已经有了自己的第一部手机,可以通过拨号上网登陆BBS,我也很痴迷电子邮件,而且当时苹果公司推出了它的第一款移动计算设备——“牛顿”(Newton),我那时正为美国电话电报公司(AT&T)提供关于这款设备的咨询服务。总而言之,在差不多20年前的时候,已经可以明显看出未来的发展轨迹。同样,现在我的儿子们也通过他们所看到、读到和听到的东西,看到了未来的发展轨迹。我们尝试关注正确的东西,并据此兴致勃勃地对未来进行推测,这给我们带来了很多欢乐。
For context, my sons are 8 and 11. Looking back 19 years ago (1992), I realize that I had my first cell phone, dial up access to bulletin boards, a love affair with email and was doing consulting for AT&T on Apple's first mobile computing device, the Newton. In short, nearly 20 years ago, the fingerprints of the future were evident in the present. Similarly, my sons are seeing fingerprints of the future in what they see, read and hear about today. Trying to focus on the right things to extrapolate from, and having some fun with it, provided us with great entertainment.
以下就是我们对2030年的10大预测:
So here are their top 10 predictions for the year 2030:
(1)我的三个孩子中,将有两个开上电动车——这个比例也是整个美国汽车市场的缩影。孩子们深信,届时石油将成为历史。不过根据国际能源委员会(International Energy Association)和《经济学人》杂志(The Economist)的说法,在未来的20年里,美国的石油需求并不会减少太多。
1. Two out of three of my children, as a reflection of the entire U.S. car market, will own an electric car (they are convinced oil will be a thing of the past, although according to the International Energy Association and The Economist, oil demand in the U.S. will shrink only modestly in the next 20 years)
(2)学校教室将转变成全数字环境,学生的课桌将变成桌面电脑或平板电脑,每个学生都有一个触控式屏幕,所有学生的电脑都会与互联网和智能黑板(SmartBoards)连接,而且还可以使用大量应用程序。
2. School classrooms will be converted into all digital environments where individual student desks will be converted into desk/tablet computers with a touch screen per child linked to SmartBoards and the Internet with a host of available applications.
(3)基因科学的先进技术,将使人类找到治疗癌症和肌萎缩侧索硬化症(ALS,俗称渐冻人——译注)的方法(当然还有其它疾病。不过由于我们的家族病史,因而这两种疾病是我的孩子们最关心的。)
3. Advanced techniques in genomics will results in a cure for both cancer and ALS (others I'm sure, but those are the diseases my sons were most focused on due to our family history)
(4)速度超快的高速列车终将行驶在美国的“东北走廊线”上,这样一来,人们只需2小时便可从波士顿乘火车到达纽约,从纽约到华盛顿更是只需一个半小时。我的孩子们似乎认为磁悬浮是目前最先进的技术,我不知道他们从哪儿听说的,这其实并不确切,不过在我听来还不错。
4. Super-fast, high speed trains will finally be installed on the Northeast Corridor, allowing Boston to NY travel to take 2 hours and NY-DC a mere 1.5 hours. My sons seem to think magnetic technology is the state of the art. I'm not sure where they got this factoid, but it sounded good to me.
(5)到2030年,商业月球旅行将成为可能,而且对于那些想寻找刺激的超级富豪来说,月球之旅也会成一桩比较平常的事,就像今天有许多富人乘私人飞机出行一样。
5. Commercial travel to the moon will be possible and relatively common for super-rich thrill-seekers. Sort of like private jet travel today.
(6)用声音控制、可自动驾驶的轿车将变得非常普遍。这些轿车甚至可能不是谷歌(Google)生产的。
6. Voice-controlled, self-driving cars will be prevalent. Perhaps not even brought to you by Google.
(7)不会有人再带着钱包出门了。钱包的所有功能(如装钱、装优惠券、装身份证……)都会嵌入到你的移动设备中。
7. No one will carry wallets any more -- all wallet functionality (payment, coupons, identity) will be embedded in your mobile device
(8)到处都看不到电线了。无线电源、无线网络、高带宽数据的盛行,将使美国大部分的电话线杆被拆除。当然,我的孩子们也认为,到时候几乎不会再有任何家庭使用固话、有线电话。
8. No wires anywhere -- wireless power/electricity, wireless Internet, high bandwidth data will result in the taking down of telephone polls in large parts of the country. A corollary to this one is that my sons don't think hardly any homes will have landline, wire telephones any more.
(9)滑板将用于商用——它仍将是高端的设备,不过它可以作为自行车的替代品,用于城市运输。孩子们的这个点子有点“雷”到我了,不过他们却深信不疑——而且他们甚至没有看过讽刺笑星阿里?G的这段搞笑视频。
9. Hover boards will be sold commercially -- still high-end devices, but useful for urban transportation as an alternative to bicycles. This one struck me as a stretch, but they're quite convinced of it, and they haven't even seen this hilarious AliG clip.
(10)美国将选出一位女总统。虽然我告诉他们,从现在开始到2030年只有四次大选了——我没有算上2012年,在这里向有意在2012年参选总统的萨拉?佩林说声抱歉——不过孩子们还是很看好女性当选总统。
10. A woman will be elected president of the United States. I pointed out to them that there would only be four elections (not counting 2012 - sorry Sarah Palin) between now and 2030 for an American female head of state to be elected, but they were bullish on this one as well.
以下还有几个预测,我们虽然讨论过,但最终还是否决掉了,这些预测尽管可圈可点,但似乎不会在2030年前发生。
Here were a few that we discussed but were ultimately rejected as plausible, but not likely by 2030:
(1) 人类登陆火星。
1. Humans landing on Mars
(2) 悬浮汽车(就是可以在路面上空高速飞行的汽车)。
2. Hover cars (i.e., cars that floated above roads at high speeds)
(3) 被变成飞机的汽车
3. Cars that converted into airplanes
(4) 家用机器人包揽家务活,比如刷盘子、洗衣服、换尿布等。
4. Home robots that do household chores -- dishes, laundry, changing diapers
(5) 在其它星球上发现生命。
5. Life discovered on another planet
(6) 出现像纸一样薄的弹性屏幕,这种屏幕的设计就像一本书,你可以用电子墨水在屏幕上写字。不过它像Kindle电子阅读器一样,是一款电子产品,而且可以无线下载。
6. Electronic ink on flexible, paper-thin screens that mimic a book -- but, like a Kindle, download wirelessly and electronic
我曾经跟孩子们提起过,要把他们的这些预测发到博客上,因为我觉得它们代表了一个有趣的看未来的窗口。我的大儿子十分担忧,并表示反对:“爸爸,如果我们想发明这里面的某些东西,但是别人先偷了我们的点子怎么办?”
At one point, I mentioned to my sons that I might blog about their predictions because I thought they represented an interesting window into the future. My oldest got concerned and objected, "But Dad, what if we want to invent some of this stuff and people steal our ideas?"
本文作者Jeffrey Bussgang是风险投资机构Flybridge Capital Partners的普通合伙人
Jeffrey Bussgang is general partner at venture capital firm Flybridge Capital Partners.
标签:2030年 预测
10
2011-03-23 09:47 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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