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在地震与海啸之后 核泄漏危机中的日本

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小编摘要:从客观能力上讲,日本大概比几乎其它任何一个国家都能更好地应对上周的地震和海啸,尽管人员伤亡惨重,核事故的后果也相当可怖。但从经济上讲,日本的情况几乎糟糕到极点。

 

从客观能力上讲,日本大概比几乎其它任何一个国家都能更好地应对上周的地震和海啸,尽管人员伤亡惨重,核事故的后果也相当可怖。但从经济上讲,日本的情况几乎糟糕到极点。
Objectively speaking, Japan is probably more capable than almost any other country to respond to the earthquake and tsunami last week. Despite heavy casualties, the consequence of nuclear accidents is also quite terrible. But economically speaking, the situation in Japan is almost worse to the extreme.
首先,灾难推高了本已高估的日元汇率,这或者是因为投资者和保险公司都在把资金汇回国内,或者是别人在押注他们会这么做。遭遇停电和工厂被淹的出口商,还将不得不面对其产品价格竞争力下降的局面。
First, the disaster has pushed the already over-valued yen exchange rate, either because investors and insurance companies are conducting the repatriation of funds, or because some people else bet they will. Experiencing power outage and flooded plants, exporters will have to face the declining price competitiveness of their products.
其次,日本央行(BoJ)挽救经济的能力有限。新西兰基督城地震过后,新西兰央行降息50个基点,但日本利率已经为零。日本央行可能(实际上也会)增加其资产购买,并出手干预汇市,以防日元升值太多,尽管它上一次试验后一种手段时,效果持续时间不长。
Second, the Bank of Japan’s ability to save the economy is limited. After the earthquake of Christchurch in New Zealand, New Zealand Central Bank cut interest rate by 50 basis points, while Japan's interest rate has been zero. Bank of Japan may (actually will) increase its asset purchases and intervene in currency markets to prevent the over-appreciation of the yen, even though the effect did not last long when it adopted the latter measure last time.Third, the Japanese government will need to rebuild the affected areas. After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Japanese government spent 3% of the gross domestic product (GDP) to counter the disaster. In theory, this should bring a useful short-term boost to Japanese in-deflation economy (Any GDP growth will come from any replacement of lost assets, so it should not be overemphasized.) But Japan is already the most indebted in all developed countries with every national saddled with average 5.2 million yen in debt. Therefore, Japanese government should reduce rather than increase spending.
第三,日本政府将需要重建灾区。1995年神户地震过后,日本政府拿出了国内生产总值(GDP)的3%。从理论上讲,这应该会对日本处于通缩的经济带来一次有用的短期刺激(GDP的任何增长都将来自替换损失的资产,因此不应过分强调)。但日本已经是发达世界中负债最重的国家,平均每位国民背负着520万日元的总债务。日本政府应减少、而非增加开支。
But Japan still harbors a glimmer of hope. This extraordinary event will at least lead rival politicians of Japan to put down divergences and work together to figure out a budget. In addition, As 94.5% of Japan's government bonds were sold to domestic investors, the spread of risk should be limited; As long as Japanese investors do not feel panic about the domestic financial situation, it counts little whether some other places in the world feel panic or not. Japan is able to overcome this terrible tragedy on the condition that its economic, political and social dimensions are consistently united.
但日本还有一线希望。这个非常事件至少会促使日本敌对的政界人士暂搁分歧,合力出台一份预算。此外,由于日本94.5%的国债出售给国内投资者,蔓延风险应该有限;只要日本投资者不对本国的财政状况感到恐慌,世界上其它地区是否恐慌并不重要。日本能够度过这场可怕的悲剧,但它必须在经济、政治和社会层面都团结起来。
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2011-03-18 09:24 编辑:icetonado
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