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迎战石油危机

所属:财经报道 作者:Michael Levi 阅读:2894 次 评论:0 条 [我要评论]  [+我要收藏]

小编摘要:埃及上月的动荡令苏伊士运河面临被关闭的风险,这让石油交易员们惊慌。眼下,占全球石油产量约2%的利比亚似乎也处在内战边缘,进一步加剧了市场的不安情绪。随着油价突破每桶100美元,世界必须对油价的进一步波动做好






埃及上月的动荡令苏伊士运河面临被关闭的风险,这让石油交易员们惊慌。眼下,占全球石油产量约2%的利比亚似乎也处在内战边缘,进一步加剧了市场的不安情绪。随着油价突破每桶100美元,世界必须对油价的进一步波动做好准备——如果沙特阿拉伯或其它国家的石油生产中断,世界有可能陷入一场真正的危机。
Turmoil in Egypt spooked oil traders last month, threatening to close the Suez Canal. Now Libya, which accounts for about 2 per cent of global production, seems on the brink of civil war, creating further disquiet. With prices above $100 a barrel, the world must prepare for further oil price volatility – and the threat of a genuine crisis if production is disrupted in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere.
这一形势促使政治活动家和政客们匆忙翻出自己的老一套说辞。一些人呼吁扩大本土石油生产;还有人主张发展石油替代品。但两种办法都不会有太大效果。替代品的确有潜力可挖,但需要数十年时间才能达到有意义的规模。扩大本土石油生产更加没有指望:新增供应不会让消费者免受全球油价大幅波动的影响,而增加产出也只会是一个缓慢的过程。两种办法都值得考虑,但我们还需要一个短期危机管理计划。
The situation has sent activists and politicians scrambling for their usual answers. Some call for more domestic production; others urge alternatives to oil. But neither will make much difference. Alternatives have potential, but will take decades to arrive at scale. Expanding domestic production is even less promising: new supplies don’t insulate consumers from big changes in world prices, and increase output only slowly. Both are worthy, but we need a plan plans for short-term crisis management too.
此类计划的着眼点,必须是对战略石油储备采取协调做法。这些储备可以起到抵御全球市场动荡的缓冲器的作用,这意味着,如果石油供应减少,或运输路线中断,就动用储备,以稳定全球市场。但问题在于,人们仍不清楚在哪些情况下可以动用这些储备。当前形势还没走到这一步,而国际能源机构(IEA)负责人向市场保证,必要时可以动用储备。如果动乱蔓延至沙特阿拉伯,释放储备无可非议,但对于影响不那么严重的扰乱,政策就有些模糊。
Such plans must begin with a coherent approach to strategic petroleum reserves. These can be used as a buffer against global disruptions, meaning that if supply drops, or transit routes are disrupted, stocks are released to calm world markets. The problem is, it is unclear which circumstances justify their use. The current situation does not merit it, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) reassured markets they could be used, if needed. If unrest spread to Saudi Arabia a release would make sense, but policy is muddled on more moderate disruptions.
沙特阿拉伯产量下降,对市场的冲击会尤其严重。该国被卷入动荡的可能性非常低,但考虑到后果的严重性,即使概率很低也不应忽视。由于邻国巴林仍一团混乱,不安定局面蔓延至沙特阿拉伯的可能性有所增加。但如果日产量约200万桶的阿尔及利亚继利比亚之后也停产怎么办?IEA必须划定行动底线,以阻止市场先行恐慌。
Curtailing Saudi production, in particular, would be a huge shock to markets. The probability of such contagion is very small, but even these limited odds matter when the consequences are grave. With neighbouring Bahrain still roiling, the chances of unrest spreading to the desert kingdom have increased. But what if a production shutdown in Libya was followed by Algeria, which produces about 2m barrels a day? The IEA must decide what its breaking point will be, to deter pre-emptive market panic.
较富裕的石油消费国也必须加大努力,敦促中国和印度加入新的全球石油储备协调释放体系。单个国家的储备在应对油价波动方面的能力都是有限的,因此西方——由经合组织(OECD)出面——通过IEA来协调其储备的释放。但随着石油需求转向亚洲,应对供应冲击的责任也必须随之转移。但没有人真正清楚,中国领导人对于中东目前的危机会做出何种反应。人们也不清楚,他们将如何应对油价的大幅上涨(而不是中国石油进口的实际中断)。
Wealthier oil-consuming states must also redouble efforts to bring China and India into a new global system for co-ordinating releases. Any single country’s stockpile has limited power to respond to changes in price, so the west (via the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) co-ordinates its release through the IEA. But as oil demand shifts to Asia, so responsibility for responding to shocks must also move with it. However no one really knows how the Chinese leadership, in particular, will to respond to current dramas in the Middle East. How they would react to a significant price spike, rather than a physical disruption of shipments to China, is also unclear.
争取中国和印度合作的努力至今未能成功,部分原因在于两国都不是OECD成员国。若要加入该组织,两国还必须让本国的石油市场变得更加透明。或者,各方应发展一种新的合作机制,就积累和释放储备的基本规则达成广泛共识。这也许可通过20国集团(G20)来协调。储备管理也应该与(中国反对的)透明度要求区别对待。
Efforts to co-opt China and India have so far been unsuccessful, in part because neither are members of the OECD. To participate both would also have to be more transparent about their own oil markets. Instead, a new co-ordination scheme should be developed, with broad agreement on the basic rules for accumulating and releasing stocks, possibly co-ordinated through the group of 20 leading nations. Stockpile management should also be separated from transparency demands, to which China is averse.
还有必要对石油市场的投机活动采取新手段。2008年油价飙升至每桶147美元,促使G20正彻底修改相关规则。不过,当时油价飙升是由经济因素——尤其是中国需求的激增——推动的,而不是地缘政治冲击。可以理解的是,回应也聚焦于如何最有效地应对未来的类似情况。
New approaches to oil market speculation are also needed. The G20 is currently overhauling rules in response to the 2008 oil price spike, which saw prices rise to $147 a barrel. However this was driven by economic factors – particularly surging Chinese demand – not a geopolitical shock. The response has, understandably, focused on how to deal most effectively with similar circumstances in the future.
不过,一旦沙特阿拉伯或伊朗的石油供应中断,可能会引发不同类型的投机活动。在这种情况下,投机者将对难以预料的政治变化(而非稳定的经济动态)做出反应。随着惊慌的交易员囤积石油,作为保险措施,波动可能会进一步加剧。考虑并准备针对地缘政治压力异常大的时期的投机活动出台新的特别限令,无疑是明智之举。
The type of speculation that would follow disruptions in Saudi Arabia or Iran, however, could be different. In such cases speculators would be responding to hard-to-anticipate political changes, rather than steady economic developments. Their moves could therefore add to volatility, as panicked traders hoard oil as an insurance policy. It would be wise to consider and prepare for exceptional new restrictions on speculation during such moments of extraordinary geopolitical stress.
这些措施都无法取代全球能源经济长期转型的必要性。但即便有这些更加全局性的想法,也不应忽视应对当前问题的短期措施。我们不知道,刚刚全球化的经济将如何应对一场猛烈的地缘政治油价危机。但我们应该在付出沉重代价才找到答案之前做好准备。
None of these measures replaces the need for a long-term transformation in the global energy economy. But such broader thinking must not crowd-out short-term measures to cope with present problems. We don’t know how our newly globalised economy will respond to a sharp geopolitical oil price shock. But we should prepare, before we find out the hard way.
本文作者为美国对外关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)高级研究员
The writer is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
标签:迎战 石油危机
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2011-02-25 14:25 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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