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小编摘要:在担任了20年《波士顿环球报》(The Boston Globe)周日版的商业专栏作家、做了8年经济评论网站Economic Principals之后,我已经读过了许多提供投资建议的书。在我看来,那些最有价值的投资著作,是那些其作者早期对

After nearly 20 years as Sunday business columnist at The Boston Globe, and another eight as proprietor of Economic Principals -- a site that covers the lives, times and ideas of economists -- I have seen my share of books offering investment advice. The most valuable, it seems to me, are those whose authors came up with a thesis about the markets early and then kept refining and updating their ideas during the incredible expansion of financial markets that has occurred since 1975. Three of these, whose first editions appeared in 1982, 1978 and 1973, respectively, are already classics. The fourth seems destined to achieve that status.

Your Money and Your Life: A Lifetime Approach to Money Management

By Robert Z. Aliber.

I am a great fan of the walk-around-the-pond-with-a-companionable-friend format. This new version of a 1982 book began when the benefits office at the University of Chicago asked Aliber to speak to retiring faculty about financial planning.

He discovered that many of them (at least those not involved in serial marriages) were millionaires, the result of generous pensions, rising real estate prices and the bull market in stocks. "After my presentation, I would get calls -- let's have lunch," he writes. This book collects a couple of dozen such conversations and organizes them under three headings: decisions involving expenditure, investment and financial planning. Wondering whether to buy a new car or one that has been slightly used? Whether to go for public or private education? To rent or buy? To load up on insurance? To annuitize or not? Curious about how to construct a bond ladder? Anxious about senior health care? Aliber is full of wisdom on all these counts and more.

Retired now after 39 years as a professor at Chicago's Booth School of Business, he is author of The International Money Game, as well as the inheritor who has turned Charles P. Kindleberger's classic Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises into an ongoing text.

Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises

By Charles P. Kindleberger

This book first appeared in 1978. The author, professor of international economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wanted to remind his readers about a phenomenon that the efficient markets craze of the 1970s deemed impossible: "bubbles," meaning price changes that would grow large before they inevitably burst. He did so by illustrating the '70s counter-fad -- Hyman Minsky's mathematical (and largely unfathomable) model of financial fragility -- with a wealth of historical examples dating all the way back to the Tulip manias of the Dutch Republic. "Some time in the next five years you may kick yourself nor not reading and re-reading Manias, Panics and Crashes," blurbed Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson. Kindleberger revised the book three times, then turned it over to Aliber, who has updated it twice, inevitably diluting Kindleberger's distinctive kinetic, astringent style as he incorpoated his own views.

A paperback version of the canonical fourth edition goes for nearly $50. The latest version, in which Aliber becomes the lead author, is due out this spring.

A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing

By Burton G. Malkiel.

It was Princeton University professor Malkiel who pioneered the reader-friendly walk format, starting in 1973. Then the idea that markets were so quick to incorporate the latest information in prices that there could be no exploitable trading strategy was new. This "efficient-markets hypothesis (EMH)" led directly to the proposition that you would do better buying and holding a basket of stocks representing the market as a whole than by investing in professionally-managed mutual funds. It was startling at the time; the first index fund had yet to appear.

Nearly 40 years later, the basic insight seems pretty well clear: most individual investors do better buying a piece of the overall market than by trying to outsmart it. In the opening pages of this tenth edition (now so thoroughly revised as to include a history of bubbles, a review of new investment technologies, and a guide to all kinds of investments and tax strategies), Malkiel lets the numbers make his case. If you had put $10,000 into an S&P 500 Index fund in 1969 and reinvested dividends you would have a portfolio worth $463,000 today, as opposed to the $258,000 return from an average actively-managed mutual fund. Even in the last 10 years you would have done well if you had followed Malkiel's injunction to regularly rebalance your portfolio. His suggested index fund portfolio for "aging baby boomers" (containing bonds, U.S. stocks and those of various other nations, and shares of real estate investment trusts) doubled during the years 2000-2010, while an index of U.S. stocks alone actually lost a little value.

The Evolution of Technical Analysis: Financial Prediction from Babylonian Tablets to Bloomberg Terminals

By Andrew W. Lo and Jasmine Hasanhodzic.

The search for patterns in market trading turns out to be one of the truly durable passions of humankind. Andrew Lo, a distinguished finance professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Hasanhodzic, an MIT PhD in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science who builds quantitative investment strategies for Alpha Simplex Group, apparently had some time on their hands, because Evolution of Technical Analysis is a light-hearted yet thorough and penetrating tour of quantitative analysis of markets from Mesopotamian times to the high-tech present.

Technical analysis -- attempts to predict future prices by looking for patterns in the past -- has a bad reputation in modern economics, they note; many of its terms seem abstruse or outmoded: "It is easy to see how a discipline that involves eye-balling charts for patterns with names like 'head and shoulders' and 'cup with a handle' might seem at first blush more akin to astrology than science," they write. (Fundamental analysis, the alternative to technical analysis among investors, fares better in popular opinion because its reasoning is essentially economic.)

In fact, insights into human psychology have remained much the same from ancient Athens to Charles Dow, founder of Dow Jones, to today's "quants," who search for bargains in the form of various cognitive biases (overconfidence, overreaction, loss aversion, and herding, to name the most widely known). High-speed traders can accentuate the wizards' edge. Malkiel's obituary for technical analysis -- "under scientific scrutiny, chart-reading must share a pedestal with alchemy" -- was premature, they say. "As long as humans, not robots, make markets, bubbles and crashes will be a reality." And behavioral economics -- the logical extension of technical analysis -- offers some hope of damping the swings.

在担任了20年《波士顿环球报》(The Boston Globe)周日版的商业专栏作家、做了8年经济评论网站Economic Principals之后,我已经读过了许多提供投资建议的书。在我看来,那些最有价值的投资著作,是那些其作者早期对金融市场进行了论述,而后随着1975年以来金融市场的惊人扩张,不断地对书中的观点进行修改和更新的书籍。有三本这样的书已经成为了经典之作,它们的第一版分别出版于1982、1978和1973年,而第四本这样的著作注定也将成为经典。

《金钱与人生:一种终身理财方式》(Your Money and Your Life: A Lifetime Approach to Money Management)


我非常喜欢这种宛如与老友漫步湖畔、谈天说地的叙述方式。作者艾力伯之所以为这本1982年的旧作推出了新版本,还要从芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)的福利办公室邀请艾力伯为该校退休员工做理财讲座说起。


艾力伯在芝加哥大学布斯商学院(Booth School of Business)担任教授长达39年,现在已从该校退休。他还著有《国际货币游戏》(The International Money Game)一书,并且将查尔斯?P?金德伯格的经典之作《狂躁、恐慌与崩溃:金融危机的历史》(Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises)推出了最近版本。

《狂躁、恐慌与崩溃:金融危机的历史》(Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises)


本书于1978年第一次出版。作者金德伯格是麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)的国际经济学教授。他提醒读者们警惕“泡沫”现象,这种现象在70年代有效市场理论的拥护者看来是不可能发生的。“泡沫”现象指的是,价格变化将像泡沫一样越来越大,但终究难免破裂。金德伯格利用大量的历史案例佐证了海曼?明斯基(Hyman Minsky,诺贝尔奖得主,经济学家——译注)的金融脆弱性数学模型。明斯基的这个模型十分高深复杂。金德伯格所举的例子一直回溯到17世纪荷兰的“郁金香泡沫”时期。诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗?萨缪尔森赞誉道:“在未来五年内的某个时候,你可能会因为没有反复读过《狂躁、恐慌与崩溃》这本书而自责不已。”金德伯格三次修订此书,后来艾力伯接手了这项工作。艾力伯曾两次对它进行更新,在融入自己的观点的同时,也不可避免地淡化了金德伯格特有的尖刻、有力的风格。


《漫步华尔街:股市历久弥新的成功投资策略》(A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing)



近40年之后,马尔基尔的基本观点在现在看来已经十分清晰了:对于大多数个人投资者来说,投资于总体市场的收获要强于试图通过投机取胜。本书经多次修订,内容已经彻底更新,它的新版本包括了各次经济泡沫的历史、对新投资技术的回顾、对各种投资和税收策略的指导等。在本书的第十版的开篇几页,马尔基尔用数字阐述了他的观点:如果你在1969年向标准普尔500指数基金(S&P 500 Index fund)投资了1万美元,并将红利收入也进行了再投资,那么你现在将拥有一个价值46.3万美元的股票投资组合,不过如果你将这笔钱投入到一个中等活跃的共同基金里,那么你现在的收益只有25.8万美元。哪怕是在过去的10年里,只要你听从了马尔基尔的劝告,经常重新调整你的证券组合,那么你也会“收成不错”。他为“老去的婴儿潮一代人”所建议的指数基金组合(包含了债券、美国及其他各国的股票,以及不动产投资信托)在2000年至2010年间翻了一番,尽管其中的一个美国股市指数实际上稍有下跌。

《技术分析的进化:金融预测——从巴比伦石碑到彭博社的终端设备》(The Evolution of Technical Analysis: Financial Prediction from Babylonian Tablets to Bloomberg Terminals)


事实证明,对市场交易模式的研究总是会吸引人们的热情。安德鲁?卢是麻省理工学院的一位声名卓著的金融学教授;哈桑霍德齐克则是麻省理工学院的一名电子工程学和计算机科学博士,并为Alpha Simplex集团打造了量化投资策略。他们二人显然有大把时间,因为《技术分析的进化》一书堪称一次轻松、深刻、彻底的旅程,本书对市场量化分析的研究从美索不达米亚时代开始,一直到高科技的现代。


事实上,从古代的雅典人,到道琼斯(Dow Jones)的创始人查尔斯?道(Charles Dow),再到今天从各种认知偏差(如过分自信、过度反应、损失厌恶和羊群效应等最广为人知的认知偏差)中寻找商机的“数量分析专家”,他们对人类心理的研究方法并没有什么不同。高速交易者可以利用这种不对称优势获益。马尔基尔曾经宣告了技术分析的死亡——“在科学的严格检验下,读图表的技术分析法将与炼金术一起走下神坛。”本书的两位作者认为马尔基尔的论断言之过早了。他们表示:“只要构成市场的是人,而不是机器人,泡沫和崩溃就会存在。”而行为经济学作为技术分析的延伸,也许可以为减轻这种震荡带来希望。
2011-02-17 12:29 编辑:kuaileyingyu