在线词典,在线翻译

美国房价精彩分析

所属:财经报道 阅读:2944 次 评论:0 条 [我要评论]  [+我要收藏]

小编摘要:尽管美国房市迎来了一系列积极向好的数据,但要指望市场复苏还为时尚早。

Home affordability has returned to pre-bubble levels, making it perhaps one of the most sensible times in years to buy a home. In 47 of the 74 markets tracked by Moody's Analytics, housing affordability has returned to or surpassed the average reached between 1989-2003.

Nationally, at the end of September (the latest data available), the ratio of home prices to annual household income had fallen to 1.6, well below the historical average of 1.9 between 1989 and 2003 – the year that lax lending and heavy speculation helped the housing boom take off. Certainly this is a positive development, laying the foundation for a housing recovery.

But will a return to affordability spur a home-buying frenzy?

"Based on incomes, this is as affordable as it gets," Moody Chief Economist Mark Zandi told The Wall Street Journal today. "If you can get a loan, these are pretty good times to buy."

Zandi might sound bullish, but even he stopped short of forecasting a buying frenzy. And for good reasons. Even while it has become one of the cheapest times in a while to buy, a litany of obstacles remains.

Here are three major hurdles to a new boom in housing:

It's still cheaper to rent in most cities. While it is more affordable to buy, consider the competition: It's actually still cheaper to rent in most American cities these days, according to Moody's price-to-rent ratio, which is the price of a typical home divided by the annual cost of renting that home.

Demand for rentals has been surging for some time, partly driven by record foreclosures that have put former owners in search of new places to call home. Zandi told Fortune in January that he expects the price-to-rent ratio to flip later this year, where consumers might finally find it cheaper to own again in most cities.

At this point though, renting is generally the better option. Nationally, Moody's price-to-rent ratio stood at 14.85 at the end of September, above the 1989-2003 average of 12.

Prices are expected to drop further. Even if buying becomes the better option over renting, potential buyers will probably continue holding out. Most economists believe that home prices are projected to fall further this year -- by an estimated 5% to 10% -- before prices hit bottom later this year or early next. Others predict declines as high as 30%.

This isn't very surprising, as record foreclosures have helped dramatically drive down prices. Though foreclosures have slowed some recently, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz told Bloomberg Wednesday that he expects another 2 million foreclosures in the U.S. this year. This is on top of the 7 million since the economic crisis of 2008.

Already, home values have fallen by 26% since their peak in June 2006, according to Zillow.com, an online real estate database. Indeed, further declines would make home purchases more affordable, but potential buyers are likely waiting in the sidelines for the day when prices hit bottom.

Mortgage hurdles remain. But even when home prices hit bottom, there's the uncertainty of getting financing for the big purchase. After a period of easy lending during the boom years of 2003 to 2006, many major banks learned the hard way to tighten lending standards. With unemployment expected to stay at a relatively high 9% or more, and with many having seen their household wealth spiral, it will probably take some time before buyers can get approved for new loans.

And then there's the uncertainty over the cost of home loans. Even though the U.S. Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at nearly zero for some time now, rates for new mortgages have steadily risen as relatively more upbeat economic data helped prompt investors to sell-off safer investments found in U.S Treasuries. Because mortgage rates are closely linked to the yield on the 10-year Treasury notes, rates have risen.

The recent rise in rates might have helped spur a modest flurry of new mortgages initially, as buyers waiting in the sidelines saw it as their last chance to lock in record-low rates. But it's unlikely that new mortgages will flourish if rates continue to rise. Just last week for instance, the number of people applying for home loans dropped as rates jumped. The Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday that its overall mortgage application index fell 5.5% from the previous week. What's more, the refinance index dropped 7.7%, while the home purchase index decreased 1.4%.

This comes as the rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.13% from 4.81% last week, according to the survey. The rate on the 15-year fixed loan rose to 4.29% from 4.13%.


目前,美国的住房购买能力已回到泡沫前水平,现在可能是数年来最佳的购房时机。在穆迪分析(Moody's Analytics)追踪的美国74个市场中,有47个市场的住房购买能力已回到或超过1989-2003年间的平均水平。

截至2010年9月末(可用最新数据),全美范围内的房价与家庭年收入之比已经降至1.6,明显低于1989-2003年间1.9的历史平均水平。正是在2003年,信贷宽松,投机盛行,助长了地产市场热火朝天。这的确是个积极的发展动向,将为住房市场复苏奠定基础。

不过,住房购买能力回升会激起购房狂潮吗?

穆迪公司首席经济学家马克?赞迪日前对《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)表示:“从收入水平看,目前房价已经够低了。如果你能贷到款,现在就是买房的大好时机。”

赞迪可能听起来是看涨行情的,不过即便他也没有预言将出现购买狂潮。他的谨慎有着充分的理由。因为尽管目前已经是一段时期以来美国房价最便宜的时候,但还是有很多障碍横亘在前。

美国住房市场回暖的三大障碍如下:

美国大多数城市里,租房仍然比买房更便宜。尽管买房变得更便宜了,但考虑到根据穆迪公司的房价租金比来看,目前,大多数美国城市中租房仍然更便宜。这一比值是用一幢代表性房屋的房价除以其年租金而得。

一段时期以来,美国租房需求一直猛涨,创纪录的止赎案例数量在一定程度上充当了推手。这一状况迫使原来的房主去寻找新的安身之所。1月,赞迪告诉《财富》杂志,他预期今年晚些时候房价租金比会下降,那样的话,消费者可能会发现,在美国大多数城市里,买房又一次变得比租房更便宜。

但在当前,租房是个更好的选择。2010年9月底,穆迪发布的全美房价租金比是14.85,高于1989-2003年间的平均数12。

美国房价预计会继续下降。即便买房会是比租房更好的选择,潜在的购房者可能还是会继续持币观望。大多数经济学家相信,今年年末或明年年初,美国房价将会触底,在这之前,今年房价会继续下降——估计降幅为5%到10%。还有人预测降幅会高达30%。

这些预测并不让人惊讶,因为创纪录的止赎数量已使美国房价急剧下降。尽管最近止赎已经放缓,但诺贝尔奖得主、经济学家约瑟夫?斯蒂格利茨本周三向彭博社表示,他预计美国今年还会有200万桩止赎。而自2008年经济危机爆发以来,美国已经有700万例止赎。

据房地产数据库网站Zillow.com的数据,美国房屋价值已从2006年6月的峰值跌去26%。的确,房价进一步下挫会使购房变得更易负担,但潜在购买者可能会静待房价触底的那一天。

房贷困难犹在。不过就算是到了美国房价触底那一天,要买大房子也难确保能获得贷款。在2003-2006年房价飞涨时期实施宽松借贷后,许多主要银行都吸取教训,收紧了借贷标准。随着美国失业率预计高踞9%或更高,以及许多人已亲眼目睹自己的家庭财富大涨大跌,购房者要获得新的贷款,可能得等上一阵了。

房屋贷款的成本也存在着不确定性。虽然美联储至今已经在相当一段时期内将利率保持在接近于零的水平,新的房贷利率却持续上升。因为,近来相对乐观的经济数据促使投资者抛售了美国国债中比较安全的投资品种。而由于房贷利率与10年期美国国债的收益率紧密挂钩,因此这一利率已经上涨。

而近期利率上涨可能已催生了一定量的新房贷,因为那些束手静待的买家把这看成是他们锁定创纪录低利率的最后机会。不过,如果利率继续上涨,新房贷不见得会继续增多。以上周为例,利率一提高,申请房贷的人数就下降了。美国抵押贷款银行家协会(Mortgage Bankers Association)周三表示,其房贷申请总体指数比起前一周下跌了5.5%。此外,再融资指数下降了7.7%,而房屋购买指数下降了1.4%。

该调查还发现,上周,30年期固定利率房贷的利率从4.81%上升至5.13%,随后上述指数就出现了下跌。而15年期固定利率贷款的利率则从4.13%上升到4.29%。
标签:美国 房价
0
2011-02-14 15:11 编辑:kuaileyingyu
分享到:
关注海词微博:
发表评论:
表达一些您的想法吧!已有0条评论>>
登录,再发表评论
文明上网,理性发言!
您可能还感兴趣的文章:
  • [生活杂谈]房价重归理性

    A straightforward way of determing whether a house is fairly priced is to compare it to what that house would rent for. It's kind of like a PE ratio. As this chart from Whitney Til
  • [社会热点]美国房价3年来首次上涨

    US house prices showed their first monthly gain in three years in May, offering another strong sign the stricken residential real estate market is stabilising. Home prices unexpec
>>精华推荐阅读
热门评论文章