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麦当劳还能火下去吗?

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小编摘要:过去3年里,麦当劳股票价格增长了近40%。但是,这种势头还会持续多久?有几大因素可能阻止这家全球最大的汉堡连锁店的增长势头。

McDonald's has long been the darling of Wall Street, posting increases in same-store sales for 30 consecutive quarters since early 2003. Even during the depths of the recession in 2008, same-store sales rose by 6.1%.

Time and time again, the fast-food global chain has found success by being something to virtually everyone. It tweaked its menu beyond its core offerings of burgers and fries, grabbing all kinds of new customers, from the health conscious with its latest oatmeal breakfast to the cost conscious with its dollar menu items. And watch out Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) -- McCafe's specialty coffee drinks now satisfy those who want more than just a standard cup of Joe.

Next Monday, when McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500) announces its earnings for the last three months of 2010, analysts expect the chain's winning streak to continue. Wall Street expects the chain will end the fourth quarter at about $1.15 per share, up 12% from the same period a year ago.

Shareholders have reaped the benefits -- McDonald's stock has risen nearly 40% in the past three years. But how long will the run last? While Wall Street overwhelmingly maintains a 'buy' position on the stock, some analysts are beginning to point to factors that could start to work against the world's largest burger chain.

Here are three headwinds to watch for in 2011.

Rising food prices: Higher food commodity and energy prices have recently pushed up wholesale and retail food prices. The US Department of Agriculture predicts that prices will continue to accelerate during the first half of 2011, leading to a 2% to 3% rise in food price inflation for the year. McDonald's and other big burger chains have largely been unaffected so far, but that might soon change.

In a report last week, RBC Capital Markets analyst Larry Miller said McDonald's will raise prices by 2% to 3% to help offset its higher food costs. McDonald's declined to comment, citing a quiet period ahead of earnings next week. However, the chain's CFO Pete Bensen told analysts in October that while prices for beef and other ingredients were rising, the burger chain could deal with the increase.

But it may be too early to conclude that the Golden Arches will survive the inflationary pressures unscathed. Rising food prices could be a risk for McDonald's, says analyst Andy Barish of Jefferies and Company, even though the chain is largely safeguarded from such volatility because the vast majority of its operating profits, about two-thirds, come from franchises and royalties. While individual franchises might have a harder time dealing with rising prices given the sensitive demand of cost conscious consumers, it could eventually hurt profits of the overall chain if prices rise to levels where it makes it difficult for franchises to expand.

Barish doesn't see any major disappointments in sales or earnings this year, but rather a gradual slowing of earnings growth. He expects McDonald's to post 16% earnings growth in 2010, followed by 10% growth in 2011.

Limitation of beverages over burgers: McDonald's increasingly diverse menu has helped it become the nation's best-performing restaurant company during the economic slump. The chain realized quickly that consumers have lots of options when it comes to food and drink and they want the option to stop at McDonald's for snack time as opposed to just regular meals. Creative drinks are the product du jour at the chain, with everything from fruit smoothies and specialty coffee drinks.

But beverages might only take the company so far. The Wall Street Journal recently cited a company email that disclosed that McDonald's peak lunch-hour business has been flat for five years. And the few analysts taking a bearish view of McDonald's 2011 outlook say real growth of the company's core business -- the burgers and fries part -- is overstated.

Howard Penney, restaurant industry analyst with investment research firm Hedgeye and a Fortune contributor, believes the chain has expanded too broadly into beverages, and the plan will eventually catch up with the company -- helping send U.S. same store sales to negative levels during the second, third and fourth quarters this year. Much of McDonald's success in beverages has come from specialty coffees such as lattes, which are sold at relatively higher prices. Penney says year over year sales growth of the pricier beverages has flattened.

"McDonald's makes a lot of its money on fries and beverages," Penney says. "So selling beverages is good but it makes operations more complex. It takes more to make a latte than to pour a Coke. To continue peak service time you have to add labor."

Return on investment: Some franchises worry that their investments will not pay off, according to an October McDonald's franchisee survey by Janney Montgomery analyst Mark Kalinowski, who maintains a buy rating on the stock. A poll of franchisees shows some concern that corporate demands to redo stores and sell more coffee cost too much and might not pay off in the end.

One franchisee writes: "Very concerned about reinvestment issues and whether the Corporation is paying a fair share of McCafe, upgraded technology platforms ..." According to the Wall Street Journal, the McCafe machines cost $100,000 to install, with McDonald's covering just $30,000 of that.

The criticism might appear typical for any large corporation with a significant franchise business, but if the concerns by some franchise owners begin to snowball, McDonald's could face a problem that no amount of caffeine can fix.


长期以来,麦当劳(McDonald's)始终是华尔街的宠儿。自2003年初,该公司的同店销售额连续30个季度保持增长;即使在2008年经济衰退最为严重时,其同店销售额仍然增长了6.1%。

这家全球性快餐连锁公司采取的策略是:让几乎每个人的生活都离不开麦当劳;并且凭此屡战屡胜。其菜单在核心产品汉堡包和炸薯条的基础上,不断推陈出新,并以此吸引了各式各样的新客户:最近推出的燕麦早餐,就是针对注重养生的人群;而那些价格只有几美元的单品,瞄准的则是省吃俭用的人的腰包。此外,为了防止被星巴克(Starbucks)抢走生意,它又开发了McCafe特种咖啡饮品。现在,即使那些不满足于一杯普通咖啡的客人,也有了光临麦当劳的理由。

本周一,麦当劳公布了2010年最后一个季度的收入。此前,业内分析师曾预测,其营业收入会继续增长。华尔街也预计,2010年第四季度结束时,麦当劳的股价会达到每股1.15美元,比一年前同期增长了12%。

股东也跟着获益:过去3年里,麦当劳股票价格增长了近40%。但是,这种势头还会持续多久?尽管华尔街在对这只股票进行评级时,“买入”依然占了压倒性的优势,但是,已有一些分析师表示:有几大因素可能阻止这家全球最大的汉堡连锁店的增长势头。

以下是麦当劳2011年需要小心提防的三大不利因素。

食物价格不断上涨:最近,由于农产品和能源价格上涨,食品的批发和零售价格也均随之上扬。美国农业部(The US Department of Agriculture)预计,2011年,上述产品价格会继续保持增长之势,并会引发食品价格上涨,年度涨幅将达2%~3%。迄今为止,麦当劳以及其他大型汉堡连锁店基本毫发未损。但是,这一形势可能很快就会发生改变。

在上上周提交的一份分析报告中,加拿大皇家银行资本市场公司(RBC Capital Markets)分析师拉利?米勒指出,由于食品成本上涨,麦当劳会将其出售的食品价格提高2%~3%。麦当劳在公布去年第四季度收入之前,拒绝对此发表评论。但是,去年10月,该公司首席财务官彼得?本森曾对分析师们表示,尽管牛肉和其他配料价格已经开始上涨,他们自有办法消化、解决这一问题。

尽管如此,现在就说麦当劳在此通货膨胀压力下,依然能够毫发无损,未免有些为时尚早。Jefferies and Company公司分析师安迪?巴里什指出,麦当劳运营利润中的绝大部分——近三分之二均来自特许加盟费,这使其很大程度上免受变化无常的市场因素的影响,但即便如此,食品价格上涨仍然会给麦当劳带来不小的风险。由于注重节省的消费者对于价格上涨异常敏感,诸家特许加盟店在处理涨价一事时,必定是左右为难。尽管如此,如果价格上涨到一定程度,以致特许加盟店难以再进一步扩大规模时,最终势必会影响到整个连锁店的利润。

巴里什还表示,麦当劳今年的销售额和利润依然会继续增长,但是收入增长的幅度会逐渐放缓。他预计,2010年,麦当劳利润涨幅为16%;2011年,利润涨幅会降至10%。

饮料相对于汉堡的局限性:由于提供的饮食日益多样化,麦当劳得以在经济衰退中,成为全美绩效最佳的餐饮企业。该公司很快认识到,消费者可以选择的饮食不计其数,他们希望,除了一日三餐,其他时间还能到麦当劳喝点东西,吃块点心。因此,该公司推出了现在十分流行的创新性饮品。这些饮品,从水果冰沙到特色咖啡饮品,无所不包。

但是,增加饮品种类,对于提高公司收入的贡献毕竟有限。《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)最近曾援引该公司的一封电子邮件,信中披露,5年来,麦当劳午餐高峰时段的生意始终不太景气。此外,有几名分析师认为,麦当劳2011年前景不容乐观。他们指出,事实上,该公司的核心业务,即汉堡和薯条业务的增长被高估了。

霍华德?潘尼不仅是投资研究机构Hedgeye公司的餐饮业分析师,也是《财富》杂志的特约作者。他认为,麦当劳扩充饮品业务的力度不免有些过猛,最终可能会物极必反,影响到整个美国的同店销售额,使后者在今年的第二、三、四季度呈现负增长。迄今,麦当劳饮品业务的成功,主要源于拿铁类咖啡等特种咖啡业务;而这类饮料的定价往往比较高。潘尼还表示,这些价格相对高昂的饮品的销售额年同比增长已经趋平。

“麦当劳靠薯条和饮品大赚其钱。”潘尼表示:“销售饮品虽然赚钱,但同时也增加了运营的复杂性。与倒杯可口可乐相比,冲泡一杯拿铁咖啡的时间要长多了。这样一来,在服务高峰时段就得增加人手。”

投资回报:美国证券评级机构Janney Montgomery的分析师马克?卡里诺斯基对麦当劳股票的评级依然是“买入”。去年10月,他曾针对麦当劳的特许加盟店进行了调研。调研报告显示,麦当劳要求特许加盟店重新装修店铺,扩大咖啡销量,对此,一些加盟店担心此举成本过高,自己的投资可能收不回来。

一家加盟店写道:“对于以下问题非常担心:再投资问题;在增设McCafe鲜煮咖啡业务,升级相应技术平台一事上,麦当劳的投资份额是否合理……”据《华尔街日报》报道,添置McCafe咖啡机需要花费10万美元,而麦当劳只承担其中的3万美元。

对于任何一家以特许加盟业务为主的大型企业而言,这类批评之辞可能都已司空见惯。但是,如果特许加盟店店主的担心开始迅速蔓延,那麦当劳届时面临的头痛问题可能喝多少杯咖啡都无法解决。

标签:麦当劳 挑战
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2011-01-28 15:05 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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