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人民币的国际化道路

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小编摘要:人民币国际化并非痴人说梦的想法。尤其是考虑到中国如今是世界第二大经济体,而且规模还在不断增长之中。不过面对当前在一些亚洲国家中正掀起的人民币国际化热潮来说,现实多少有些沉重而无奈。从商业的角度来讲,美

人民币“国际化”的话题又一次成为“每日热议”。中国政府正在以招标的方式第二次发行以人民币计价的海外主权债券。星期一(指12月6日,译者注),中国央行将符合条件以人民币进行外贸结算的内地企业数目从365家扩大到67359家。上个月,汇丰银行再次重申他们令人紧张的预测——在未来3到5年内,中国与发展中经济体一半的贸易金额将会以人民币计价而不是美元——这一数字相当于当前中国贸易总额的55%而且还在不断增长中。而现在,以人民币结算的贸易数额低于(当前中国贸易总额的)3%。
The "internationalization" of China's currency, the yuan, is again the topic du jour. Beijing is taking bids this week for its second offshore sovereign bond issue denominated in yuan. On Monday,the central bank expanded the number of mainland companies eligible to settle foreign trade in yuan to 67,359 from 365. HSBC last month reiterated its breathless prediction that within three to five years, half of China's trade with developing economies- said trade accounts for 55% of China's total trade and growing- will be denominated in yuan instead of dollars. Right now, less than 3% of that trade is in yuan.
如果我们再谈到商人们在与中国进行跨境交易时愿意使用人民币呢?你会认为这是在开玩笑吧。
And the businesses that will use yuan for their crossborder transactions with China? Funny you should ask.
乍看起来,使用人民币进行结算给中国公司带来的好处是至少是显而易见的。以本国货币进行交易可以减少与外国人交易时的风险,尤其是考虑到中国政府可能会恢复让人民币升值的可能性。不过除了这点好处外,几乎没有什么明确的说法表明使用人民币交易可以给中国公司或是外国公司的商业交易带来收益。
The benefits to Chinese companies,at least, are supposed to be obvious. Trading in their own currency would allow them to shunt foreign-exchange risk to someone else, especially if Beijing resumes yuan appreciation. Yet despite that advantage, there is hardly a clear-cut argument in favor of using the yuan for trade for any company, foreign or Chinese.
宏观上可见的主要障碍就是:人民币缺乏可兑换性。无论是美元、欧元还是日元,它们做为交易现金的价值体现在一旦公司收到款后即可随意使用在每一处——在全球范围内用于支付供应商的货款,在任意地方用作虚拟投资之用,或是自由兑换为种类繁多的他国货币。
The chief roadblock is macro:the yuan's lack of full convertibility.The great virtue of the dollar,euro and yen as trade currencies is that companies can do anything with those monies after they receive them as payments - including paying other suppliers around the world, investing virtually anywhere,or converting freely among a range of other currencies.
随着中国政府快速扩张人民币的贸易用途,商业公司开始逐渐发现人民币除商业贸易外的其他用处。中国政府不仅建立海外主权债券市场提供人民币投资机会,而且还有了更多的举措,比如今年早些时候允许香港的银行投资于境内银行间债券市场——这让香港银行能为海外客户们提供更好的投资机会,让他们有机会从商业贸易所积累下的人民币中获得更好的回报。不过由于中国政府为防止货币投机活动而设立了繁复的外汇管制,人民币的投资机会依然有限。
But as Beijing expands apace the opportunities to trade with the yuan, it is moving more slowly to open avenues for companies to do anything with yuan other than trade. Creating an offshore market in sovereign bonds will help, as will Beijing's move earlier this year to allow Hong Kong banks to invest yuan in the onshore interbank bond market---which lets those banks offer their offshore customers better returns on the yuan they accumulate through trade. But thanks to onerous exchange controls to thwart currency speculation, yuan options still are limited.
资本控制对于人民币国际化还有商业上的影响。(全球)大约98%的外汇交易中,至少有一个交易方使用的是美元、欧元或日元;(全球)85%的外汇交易是全部使用美元进行。伦敦的资本经济咨询公司(CapitalEconomics)的马克·威廉斯(MarkWilliams)在一项研究中指出,因为这些货币的市场(指美元、欧元或日元,译者注)如此巨大,公司在进行货币进出交易时能得到最好的利率。比如说,当你需要把巴西的货币雷亚尔转为南非的货币兰特,比直接兑换更有效的方法就是先把雷亚尔兑换为美元,再把美元兑换为兰特。
Capital controls have other business implications, too. Some 98% of foreign-exchange trades involve the dollar, euro or yen on at least one side of the transaction;85% of the total involve the dollar. Because the markets in these currencies are so large,companies trade in and out of them at the best possible rates,notes Mark Williams of Londonbased Capital Economics in a research note. In fact, if you need to convert Brazilian reals into South African rand, it's probably most cost effective to trade reals into dollars and then dollars into rand than to try to make the exchange directly.
人民币想要国际化,首先就要把货币市场做大,使人民币的资金流动池尽可能地深。可是,当前接受人民币作为交易现金的外国公司却只能在相对狭窄的海外市场上进行兑换,他们被切断在中国境内的广阔市场之外。威廉斯指出,这会让那些看上去是最热衷于接受人民币的发展中国家的公司非常担忧,因为他们自己国家的货币交易市场相对来说也很小。
China's yuan-internationalization efforts would benefit from making the available pool of yuan liquidity as deep as possible. But foreign companies that accept yuan as payment are punished by being able to exchange those yuan only on the relatively thin offshore markets; the vast onshore pool is cut off to foreigners. Mr.Williams points out that this will be a particular concern for the developing-world companies that are supposed to be the most enthusiastic adopters of the yuan,since their home currencies are also relatively thinly traded.
还有其他一些特别的问题。比如汇款,中国的银行通常在内部进行分工,一个部门负责国内帐户的人民币汇款结算,另一个部门负责国内公司与外国公司间的外汇结算业务。这两个部门的操作方式不同,负责国内业务的部门使用中国自己的结算系统来汇款,负责国外业务的部门则通过环球同业银行金融电讯协会(SWift,Societyfor Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication)的网络与对应的国外银行进行银行间通讯。
There are other practical problems.For money transfers, Chinese banks typically divide the labor internally between one department that handles clearing for transfers of yuan between domestic accounts and another department that handles transfers of foreign currencies between domestic companies and foreign companies. The two operate differently: The domestic unit uses China's own national clearing system to transfer money, while the foreign unit works with correspondent banks and the international SWift network for interbank communications.
海外人民币交易会让银行的工作变得混乱。因为涉及到人民币,因此负责海外交易的部门会认为应该是由负责人民币汇款的国内部门来承担责任。但由于钱是汇到国外去的,因此负责国内汇款的部门也会认为应当是由负责海外交易的部门来承担责任。光是责任认定就能耽误处理时间了。
Offshore yuan transactions confuse things. Because they involve yuan, the dpartment responsible for overseas transactions might assume the domestic yuan-transfer unit should take charge. But since they're transfers to overseas accounts, the department that usually handles domestic transactions assumes these operations should be the responsibility of the office that handles foreign deals. The resulting confusion can lead to processing delays.
时间也是个主要的考虑因素。由于全球美元市场的宽广深厚,美元汇款可以在数分钟内结算完毕,即使是跨境交易亦是如此。人民币的结算则要花更长的时间,还有更多的不确定因素在里面。例如,中国用那些反洗钱监测条款管理着人民币汇款业务?如果交易因某些原因而失败了会发生些什么事?在美元市场上,不仅是对于这些问题有明确的条款规定,对于其它很多问题都会有明文说明。而人民币市场则做不到这一点。
Time is a major consideration.Because the world's dollar market is broad and deep, dollar transfers can clear within minutes, even across borders. Yuan clearing takes longer, and involves greater uncertainty. For instance, what rules govern anti-money laundering surveillance on yuan transfers?And what happens if a transaction fails to clear for some reason? In the dollar market, clear rules are in place for both these, and many other, questions.Not so, yet, with the yuan.
要处理好这些问题需要时间——银行需要投资更新他们的信息化管理系统,培训职员。这对于中国公司而言,意味着比传统的美元交易要付出更高的交易成本。因此,中国公司是否愿意在近期内使用人民币进行海外贸易还是个未知数。
Fixing these problems will take time- and capital investment by banks in upgraded IT and staff training. That means higher transactions costs for Chinese companies,too, compared to tradi tional cross-border trade in dollars. This raises questions about whether Chinese companies themselves will be interested in using yuan overseas in the near term.
人民币国际化并非痴人说梦的想法。尤其是考虑到中国如今是世界第二大经济体,而且规模还在不断增长之中。不过面对当前在一些亚洲国家中正掀起的人民币国际化热潮来说,现实多少有些沉重而无奈。从商业的角度来讲,美元仍有充足的理由成为当之无愧的“货币之王”。
The idea of an international yuan is not crazy. China is the world's second-largest economy and still growing fast. But a hefty dose of realism is in order amid all the yuan-internationalization mania now sweeping some corners of Asia. The dollar is still king from a business's perspective, and for good reason.
标签:人民币 国际化
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2010-12-23 23:29 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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