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人类很难摆脱的有害思维习惯

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人类的思想真是个奇妙的东西。知觉(cognition),思考的过程和表现,让我们能快速处理大量的外界信息。例如,当你睁开你的双眼,你的大脑就承受着外界刺激的不断炮击。你可以有意识的专注的在想一件特定的事情,但是你的潜意识却在处理着成千上万的想法。不幸的是,我们的知觉并不完美,时常做出一些错误的判断,心理学中把这种现象称为认知偏差(cognitive biases)。这会在每个人的身上演绎着,不论年龄、性别、教育、智力或者任何其他因素。它们中的一些声名远扬为人们所熟知,有一些则鲜为人知,但是它们都很有趣。可以确定每个人都觉得有些在自己身上发生过,那么现在,在你将来犯错之前,先有个清楚地认识吧!
The human mind is a wonderful thing. Cognition, the act or process of thinking, enables us to process vast amounts of information quickly. For example, every time your eyes are open, you brain is constantly being bombarded with stimuli. You may be consciously thinking about one specific thing, but you brain is processing thousands of subconscious ideas. Unfortunately, our cognition is not perfect, and there are certain judgment errors that we are prone to making, known in the field of psychology as cognitive biases. They happen to everybody regardless of age, gender, education, intelligence, or other factors. Some of them are well known, others not, but all of them are interesting. I am sure everyone will find that one has happened to them, (I myself have been prone to several) and now will recognize when they are making an error in the future.
赌徒谬论(Gambler’s Fallacy)
10 Gambler’s Fallacy
赌徒谬论认为未来的种种可能性会因过去的事情而改变的思考方式,然而事实并非这样。确定的概率,就像抛掷一枚硬币结果是人头,是不会变的,人头朝上的概率永远是50%,和你在前十次里抛出的是反面没有关系。认为概率会有变化是常见的偏见,尤其在赌博的时候。比方说,我正在玩轮盘赌,过去的四盘都在黑色一边停下,难道这盘就要在红色的一边停下吗?显然错了!在红色处停留的概率还是47.37%。这听起来似乎很理所当然,但是就是这个偏见让许多赌徒输了大把的钱,天真的认为概率会改变。
The Gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality, they are not. Certain probabilities, such as getting a heads when you flip a (fair) coin, are always the same. The probability of getting a heads is 50%, it does not matter if you’ve gotten tails the last 10 flips. Thinking that the probabilities have changed is a common bias, especially when gambling. For example, I am playing roulette. The last four spins have landed on black, it has to be red this time right? Wrong! The probability of landing on red is still 47.37% (18 red spots divided by 38 total spots). This may sound obvious, but this bias has caused many a gambler to lose money thinking the probabilities have changed.
反应性(Reactivity)
9 Reactivity
反应性是人们在发现自己被观察时呈现不同外在表现的趋势。上世纪20年代,霍山工作室做了一项研究,观察不同的灯光是否会对工人的产出造成影响。他们的发现令人难以置信,调节灯光会引起产量的飙升。不幸的是,研究结束后,产量有降到的平常的水平。这是因为产量的改变并不是由于灯光的不同,而是因为工人们被观察着。这就阐述了反应性的一种形式,当个体察觉到自身被观察时就会有意识的改变自己的行为方式,让自己看起来更优秀。这种反应在研究中是个很严重的问题,必须在“双盲实验”实验中得到控制。(“盲”指的是接受研究的人员被隐瞒了实验的相关信息,使不影响实验结果)
Reactivity is the tendency of people to act or appear differently when they know that they are being observed. In the 1920s, Hawthorne Works (a manufacturing facility) commissioned a study to see if different levels of light influenced worker productivity. What they found was incredible, changing the light caused productivity to soar! Unfortunately, when the study was finished, productivity levels decreased to their regular levels. This was because the change in productivity was not due to the light levels, but to the workers being watched. This demonstrated a form of reactivity; when individuals know they are being watched, they are motivated to change their behavior, generally to make themselves look better. Reactivity is a serious problem in research, and has to be controlled in blind experiments (“Blind” is when individuals involved in a research study are purposely withheld information so as not to influence the outcomes).
幻想性视错觉(Pareidolia)
8 Pareidolia
幻想性视错觉是指一个人把随机遇到的声音或图像都认为非常重要。看见了天上的云朵像只恐龙、耶稣、熔炉,或是在磁带倒播时听出了别样的信息,这些都是幻想性视错觉的显著例子。幻想性视错觉的基本因素是外界的刺激是中性的,没有任何象征性的意义,所有的额外含义都是感受者所强加的。
Pareidolia is when random images or sounds are perceived as significant. Seeing clouds in the shapes of dinosaurs, Jesus on a hot pocket, or hearing messages when a record is played backward are common examples of pareidolia. The common element is that the stimulus is neutral, it does not have intentional meaning; the meaning is in the viewer’s perception.
有趣的例子:罗夏墨迹测验(译者:Rorschach inkblot test,就是让被试者通过一些对称的不规则墨迹建立起自己的想象世界,在无拘束的情景中,显露出其个性特征的一种个性测试)就是利用幻想性视错觉来接近人们的精神状态。参与测验的人被要求看一组模糊的图片,并要描述出他们所看到的内容。通过分析他们的回答可以发掘出一些潜在的想法。
Interesting Fact: the Rorschach Inkblot test was developed to use pareidolia to tap into people’s mental states. Testees are shown images of ambiguous pictures, and asked to describe what they see. Responses are analyzed to discover the testee’s hidden thoughts.
自验预言(Self-fulfilling Prophecy)
7 Self-fulfilling Prophecy
自验预言倾向于获取结果来验证已有观点行为。自验预言是个让预言自身变成真实的一个预测。比如说:我认为我将在学校里表现非常糟糕,于是我就不那么努力地去面对我的作业与学习,结果我就真的表现糟糕,不出我所料。还有一个常见的例子就是人际关系,我认为我和朋友的关系就要搞砸了,于是我就开始有了不同以往的作为,有意地脱身离开。正因为我的反差,我确确实实的把关系搞砸了。这正是巫师使用一个强力工具,他们把一个想法植入你的脑海里,结果你就真的让人发生了,因为你认为它会发生。
Self-fulfilling prophecy is engaging in behaviors that obtain results that confirm existing attitudes. A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that causes itself to become true. For example, I believe that I am going to do poorly in school, so I decrease the effort I put into my assignments and studying, and I end up doing poorly, just as I thought. Another common example is relationships; I think my relationship with my significant other is going to fail, so I start acting differently, pulling away emotionally. Because of my actions, I actually cause the relationship to fail. This is a powerful tool used by “psychics” – they implant an idea in your mind, and you eventually make it happen because you think it will.
有趣的例子:经济衰退就是一个自验预言。因为经济衰退是指两个季度的GDP的下降,只有在衰退中度过六个月之后你才会知道你正处在一个衰退之中。不幸的是,GDP下降的苗头一出现,媒体就报道可能会有一个经济衰退,然后人们开始恐慌,开始了一系列的连锁反应并最终导致了大衰退。
Interesting Fact: Economic Recessions are self-fulfilling prophecies. Because a recession is 2 quarters of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decline, you cannot know you are in a recession until you are at least 6 months into one. Unfortunately, at the first sign of decreasing GDP, the media reports a possible recession, people panic and start a chain of events that actually cause a recession.
晕轮效应(halo effect)
6 Halo effect
晕轮效应是指个体或积极或消极的特征会弥散到他个人其他部分的感知的一种趋势。这种思考偏差在雇员的表现评估中常有发生。比如说:我有一个员工,Biff,过去三天中都迟到了,我注意到这个现象,并推断Biff这个家伙有点懒惰并且对他的工作不太关心。Biff的迟到是有许多的原因,有可能他的车坏了,可能是他的保姆当天没来,或是天气实在糟糕。问题是,正是由于这个Biff不能控制的消极因素,我就推断Biff是个坏员工。
The Halo effect is the tendency for an individual’s positive or negative trait to “spill over” to other areas of their personality in others’ perceptions of them. This bias happens a lot in employee performance appraisals. For example: my employee, Biff, has been late to work the past three days; I notice this and conclude that Biff is lazy and does not care about his job. There are many possible reasons why Biff was late, perhaps his car broke down, his babysitter did not show up, or there has been bad weather. The problem is, because of one negative aspect that may be out of Biff’s control, I assume that he is a bad worker.
有趣的例子:体态吸引力模板( Physical Attractiveness Stereotype)就是指人们认为有吸引力的个体拥有一些社会生活想要寻求的特质,比如幸福、成功、智慧。于是乎,当一个有吸引力的人被赋予了优先的待遇如好工作好收入时,这种想法就成了一个自验预言。
Interesting Fact: The Physical Attractiveness Stereotype is when people assume that attractive individuals possess other socially desirable qualities, such as happiness, success and intelligence. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy when attractive people are given privileged treatment such as better job opportunities and higher salaries.
群集心态(Herd Mentality)
5 Herd Mentality
群集心态是指人们趋向于采纳多数人选择,跟随多数人的行动,可以感觉更加安稳,避免冲突。这种心态也称为暴徒心态,也就是它最常见的一种形式--压力均分。群集心态揭示了卫生时尚就是如此流行。服饰、汽车、爱好、风格,所有这些都该有一伙人认为这些事很潇洒,并且身体力行。
Herd mentality is the tendency to adopt the opinions and follow the behaviors of the majority to feel safer and to avoid conflict. Also known as “Mob Mentality,” this is, at its most common form, peer pressure. Herd mentality explains why fads get so popular. Clothes, cars, hobbies, styles, all it takes is a group of people who think something is cool, and it catches on.
有趣的例子:过去一些极不吸引人也没人会认为它会流行的一些事,现在却大行其道,因为群集心态。像跳伞裤、宠物石、鲻鱼、锥形胸罩、扎染、海猴还有80年代(顺便指出,就是上面那张图片里的年轻人)。
Interesting Fact: things that are unattractive, or that would never seem cool or popular now have had huge followings due to herd mentality. Examples include parachute pants, pet rocks, mullets, cone bras, tie-dye, sea monkeys, and the 1980s (by the way, that is an ’80s guy in the picture above).
对抗(reactance)
4 Reactance
对抗是指人们趋向于做出别人所要求的反面,为了抵抗一种内心察觉出的,要限制你的选择自由的尝试。这在叛逆的青少年中最为常见,但是任何出于担心自由和选择权受到威胁而抵制权威的尝试都可以称作对抗。事实上,个体没有必要做出特定的举动,即便有时“他们无法完成”这个事实在潜意识里催促着他们。
Reactance is the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice. This is common with rebellious teenagers, but any attempt to resist authority due to perceived threats to freedom and/or choice is reactance. The individual may not have a need to do the specific behavior, however the fact that they cannot do it makes them want to.
有趣的例子:“抵抗心理”是人们试图通过抵抗来影响人们的一个尝试。试着让一些人(特别是小孩)去做你要求所做的反方向,这样他们就会出于抵触做出你真正要求的事情!
Interesting Fact: “reverse psychology” is an attempt to influence people using reactance. Tell someone (particularly children) to do the opposite of what you really want, and they will rebel and actually end up doing what you want.
双曲贴现(Hyperbolic Discounting)
3 Hyperbolic Discounting
双曲贴现是指人们宁愿要金额较小的眼前酬劳也不要金额较大的日后报酬。有很多的研究是有关决策的,一个决策的过程会受到很多因素的影响。有趣的是,这个延迟时间的长短在选择时是个很大的因素。简单的说,绝大多数的人都愿意今天拿20美元,而不愿意在明年的今天收到100美元。正常情况应该是在当下选择更大的一笔钱,因为美元每天都在贬值。可以假设利率是9%,在这种利率条件下,一个理性的人会很淡定地选择现在的91.74美元,或者一年后的100美元。然而,有趣的是在现在就可以到手和等待明天收获之间,我们究竟愿意少拿多少?你是想现在得到50美元,还是一年后的今天获得100美元呢?现在只能拿40美元呢?你的底限是多少呢?
Hyperbolic discounting is the tendency for people to prefer a smaller, immediate payoff over a larger, delayed payoff. Much research has been done on decision-making, and many factors contribute to the individual decision making process. Interestingly, delay time is a big factor in choosing an alternative. Put simply, most people would choose to get 20 dollars today instead of getting 100 dollars one year from today. Normally it makes sense to choose a greater amount of money immediately than less in the future, as the value of a dollar is worth more today than it is tomorrow. Assume that the interest rate is 9%, at this interest rate, a rational person would be indifferent to taking $91.74 now, or $100 a year from now. However, it is interesting how much less we are willing to take immediately rather than wait, would you rather have $100 a year from now, or $50 immediately? How about $40 immediately? Where do you draw the line?
承诺升级(Escalation of Commitment)
2 Escalation of Commitment
承诺升级是指人们趋向于继续支持他们先前并不成功的尝试,在人们所做的所有决定中,不可避免的会出现一些失败的。很明显,在这种情况下,逻辑的做法就是改变决定尝试逆转这一切。但是,许多时候有些人总是强迫着自己不仅要恪守最初的决定,还要继续在这个决定上做更大的投资,只因为他们已经打了水漂的花费。比如说,你用了半生的积蓄做一门生意。6个月后,这桩生意明显已经很不成功了,理智的做法就是长痛不如短痛,放弃这桩生意。但是,这时由于已经损失了的积蓄,你决定放手一搏为你的项目投入更多的钱,企图这些富余的资金能扭转你的生意。
Escalation of commitment is the tendency for people to continue to support previously unsuccessful endeavors. With all the decisions people have to make, it is unavoidable that some will be unsuccessful. Of course, the logical thing to do in these instances is to change that decision or try to reverse it. However, sometimes individuals feel compelled not only to stick with their decision, but also to further invest in that decision because they have sunk costs. For example, say you use half of your life savings to start a business. After 6 months, it is evident that the business is going to be unsuccessful. The logical thing to do would be to “cut your losses” and drop the business. However, due to the sunk costs of your life savings, you feel committed to the business and invest even more money into the project hoping that the additional cash will turn the business around.
安慰剂效应(Placebo Effect)
1 Placebo Effect
安慰剂效应是指一个原本没有效用的但是被认为有治愈功能的物质最后却产生了所要达到的结果。这在医疗领域中最为常见。让患小疾的人们服用糖片,在疗效报告中我们就可以观察到安慰剂效应。安慰剂到现在仍然是个科学谜题。有个理论化的说法指出安慰剂会引起“期望效应”(在充满不确定性的情况中,所期望的就是最有可能发生的),患者希望这些小“药片”能治愈他们的毛病,于是他们就痊愈了!但是,这还是无法解释为什么毫无药效的糖片就能缓解症状。
The Placebo effect is when an ineffectual substance that is believed to have healing properties produces the desired effect. Especially common with medications, the placebo effect has been observed when individuals given a sugar pill for a real ailment report improvement. Placebos are still a scientific mystery. It is theorized that placebos cause an “Expectancy Effect”, (In cases of uncertainty, expectation is what is most likely to happen) individuals expect the pills to cure their ailments, so they feel cured. However, this does not explain how the ineffectual pills actually cause a reduction in symptoms.
有趣的例子:“安慰剂”这个术语是在当结果让人满意的时候才使用的,当结局不尽如人意时,有个术语叫:反安慰剂(Nocebo)。
Interesting Fact: The term “Placebo” is used when the outcomes are considered favorable, when the outcomes are negative or harmful; the term is “Nocebo”
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2010-12-08 20:34 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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