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经济学家调高2011年美国增长预期

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The proposed fiscal deal between Republicans and Democrats will provide a big boost to growth in 2011 because the compromise gives both parties what they wanted and adds the cost to the deficit.
美国共和党和民主党之间就财政问题达成的妥协将在2011年大幅推动经济增长,这一妥协让两党都达到了目的,成本则记入财政赤字。

The result is an extra fiscal stimulus of $1,000bn during the next two years rather than letting the Bush-era tax cuts expire.
妥协结果是在未来两年再增加1万亿美元财政刺激,而非让布什时代的减税措施到期失效。

Economists expected some or all of the cuts to be kept, but a big surprise is the 2 per cent cut to employee payroll taxes for 2011 that Barack Obama, president, extracted from Republicans, that will save about $2,000 for some families.
经济学家本来预期减税措施会部分或全部保留,但巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)迫使共和党人同意的雇员薪资税在2011年削减2%的举措出人意料,此举能为一些家庭节省约2000美元。

“In all, this proposal would add $185bn in stimulus in 2011 beyond what we have been assuming, not including the corporate tax provisions,” said economists at Goldman Sachs.
高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家称,“这项提案在2011年将比我们预期的刺激规模还能再增加1850亿美元,这尚不包括涉及企业所得税的条款。”

That extra purchasing power is enough to prompt economists to make substantial upgrades to next year’s growth forecasts.
额外提升的购买力足以让经济学家对明年的增长预期作出大幅上调。

“We estimate the package will add 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in 2011 and 0.2 percentage points in 2012,” said Bricklin Dwyer, economist at BNP Paribas in New York.
法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)驻纽约经济学家布里克林•德怀尔(Bricklin Dwyer)说:“我们预计这套方案能将2011年的GDP增长提升0.3个百分点,2012年提升0.2个百分点。”

Michael Feroli of JPMorgan said the boost to consumption would lift his 2011 growth forecast from 3 per cent to 3.5 per cent.
摩根大通(JPMorgan)的迈克尔•费罗利(Michael Feroli)表示,对消费的促进作用能将2011年的经济增长预期从3%提高到3.5%。

The added short-term stimulus will reduce the chances that the Federal Reserve has to expand on its $600bn programme of asset purchases next year, but is unlikely to cut it short. The Fed’s outlook for 2011 was already more optimistic than that of many market forecasters.
新增的短期刺激将降低美联储(Federal Reserve)明年被迫扩大6000亿美元资产购买计划的可能性,但不太可能提早结束该计划。美联储对2011年的展望已经比许多市场预测者更为乐观。

The Fed has called for more spending now, combined with action to reduce the medium-term deficit. Having got the first, it will eagerly await progress on the second.
美联储呼吁加大支出,同时采取措施削减中期赤字。美联储的第一项愿望已经达成,今后将急切期待第二项愿望有所进展。

The biggest part of the package is extending the Bush-era tax cuts for all income groups at a cost of about $800bn during the next two years. Including the highest earners will increase consumption only modestly, because they tend to save extra income, but may add 0.2 percentage points to growth next year.
这套方案中最重要的部分是延长布什时代出台的为所有收入阶层减税的措施,这将在未来两年中带来将近8000亿美元的财政负担。收入最高的阶层倾向于储蓄额外收入,因此纳入这一人群能够增加的消费可能有限,但仍能使明年的经济增长率提高0.2个百分点。

The payroll tax holiday will cost about $120bn and should provide a reasonable boost to consumption because it is spread across the income range.
薪资税“减税假期”的成本将达到大约1200亿美元,但由于涵盖所有收入阶层,应当能适度地推动消费。

The deal cuts taxes on individuals, however, rather than employers, so it will benefit those already in work rather than directly encouraging companies to create new jobs.
不过,削减的税收针对个人而非雇主,所以能让有工作的人受益,但不能直接鼓励企业创造新的就业岗位。

Finally, the deal extends unemployment insurance throughout 2011 at a cost of $60bn, and extends increases to tax credits included in the 2009 stimulus.
最后,这项妥协还以600亿美元的成本延长了2011年全年的失业保险,并延长了2009年刺激计划中增加税收抵免的措施。

标签:美国
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2010-12-08 20:28 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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