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经合组织:明年全球经济增长4.25%

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Growth in the world’s largest economies is likely to be slower in 2011 than this year but should pick up again by 2012, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said in its latest forecast.
经合组织(OECD)在其最新预测中表示,2011年全球最大型经济体的增长速度很可能会低于今年,但到2012年时它们的增速应该会再度回升。

It said gross domestic product growth in the 33 membercountrieswaslikely to slow to 2.3 per cent in 2011 from 2.8 per cent this year, before recovering in 2012. Within the eurozone, GDP is likely to hold steady next year after expanding 1.7 per cent in 2010.
经合组织表示,2011年,该组织33个成员国的国内生产总值(GDP)增长很可能会从今年的2.8%减速至2.3%,而后在2012年再度加速。今年欧元区的GDP增长将为1.7%,2011年的增速很可能会与今年持平。

Globally, growth was forecast at 4.25 per cent in 2011 and 4.5 per cent in 2012.
该组织预测,2011年全球经济增长将为4.25%,2012年将为4.5%。

However, the OECD warned that global imbalances remained severe, and in some cases were widening again, posing risks to the recovery.
但该组织警告说,全球失衡仍很严重,而且在某些方面正再度扩大,对复苏构成风险。

Low interest rates were creating abundant liquidity, much of which was flowing towards emerging markets countries where both expected growth rates and interest rates were higher. But it warned that some countries were taking unilateral steps to protect their domestic economies and that “protracted unilateral action of this sort is likely to have little – or even counterproductive – effects and risks triggering protectionist moves”.
低利率正在制造充裕的流动性,其中很大一部分流向新兴市场国家。经合组织预计,新兴市场国家的经济增长率和利率都将走高。但它警告说,某些国家正在采取单边措施来保护国内经济,“长时间展开这类单边行动可能不会收到什么效果,甚至会适得其反,而且还有可能引发保护主义行动。”

The organisation noted that such protectionism could reflect unhappiness over the inability to reach an international consensus on how to address imbalances.
该组织指出,这类保护主义或许反映出,相关国家对国际社会无力就如何解决失衡达成共识感到不满。

It said there was a need for fiscal consolidation in many countries as part of the rebalancing effort and said this should begin in 2011. Automatic stabilisers such as a safety net for the unemployed should be used as other spending is cut.
它表示,作为再平衡努力的一部分,许多国家有必要进行财政巩固,并表示这一进程应于2011年启动。在削减其它支出的同时,这些国家应当采用一些自动稳定机制,例如为失业人士提供的安全网。

The OECD warned that there were significant risks to the recovery, including fragile financial markets, continuing household balance sheet deleveraging, sovereign debt problems and tensions in foreign exchange markets.
经合组织警告说,经济复苏面临一些重大风险,包括脆弱的金融市场、家庭部门资产负债表持续的去杠杆化、主权债务问题以及汇市的紧张局势。

“Most of the risks are interrelated and if they were to materialise, could generate feedback loops between asset prices, private sector balance sheets and demand and financial sector outcomes,” the OECD said.
该组织表示:“上述大多数风险是相互关联的,如果这些风险真的成为现实,那可能会在资产价格、私营部门资产负债表和需求、以及金融部门业绩之间形成反馈回路。”

标签:经合 全球 组织
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2010-11-19 13:06 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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