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G20峰会:各国淡化解决全球经济失衡预期

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Governments have played down expectations of a big breakthrough in resolving global economic imbalances from the G20 leaders’ meeting this week in Seoul after clear divisions emerged over currencies and current account deficits.
各国政府淡化了外界对于本周20国集团(G20)首尔峰会将在解决全球经济失衡方面取得重大突破的期望。此前,各方在汇率和经常账户赤字问题上暴露出明显分歧。

On Wednesday Barack Obama, US president, reiterated the need for countries with current account surpluses – a category including China and Germany – to increase domestic demand rather than relying on exports.
美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)周三重申,经常账户盈余的国家(此类国家包括中国和德国)需要增加国内需求,而非一味依赖出口。

A plan agreed at an October meeting of G20 finance ministers “commits us all to pursue policies to reduce the risk that unsustainable external imbalances will re-emerge”, he said.
奥巴马称,G20财长10月份开会时达成的一项计划“使我们每个国家都承诺推行相关政策,以减小不可持续的对外收支失衡再度出现的风险。”

But experts said the meeting would end without a clear map about how to get there. Eswar Prasad, formerly a senior International Monetary Fund official, said: “The summit will highlight areas of general agreement, even if those lack specifics, and paper over areas where there are deep fractures among the G20.”
但专家们表示,此次G20峰会结束时将拿不出一份如何实现上述目标的清晰路线图。国际货币基金组织(IMF)前高级官员埃斯瓦•普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示:“峰会将强调各方达成一般共识的领域——即便那些共识缺乏具体细节——同时掩饰G20国家之间存在深刻分歧的领域。”

A proposal floated last month by the US to set numerical targets or “indicative guidelines” for current account imbalances is being rested for this particular match to avoid injury. In avoiding open confrontation with China, Washington is playing the long game, reckoning that pressure may be counterproductive to the internal debate under way in Beijing.
美国在上月曾提议设定经常账户失衡的数值目标,或称“指示性指引”。该提议将在本次峰会上被搁置,以免造成不和。为避免与中国公开对抗,美方正从长计议,认为施压可能对中方内部正在展开的辩论起到反作用。

The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, is keener on letting the renminbi appreciate and more open to the idea of setting current account targets, but for the moment other voices within the Chinese government have dominated. How long that will continue is anybody’s guess, most likely including that of the White House.
中国央行比较愿意让人民币升值,也更愿意接受设定经常账户目标的想法,但就目前而言,中国政府内部的其他意见占了上风。这种局面将持续多久,外界(很可能包括白宫在内)不得而知。

In the meantime the US has had to cope with a counterattack from Beijing and Berlin, which last week inveighed against the US Federal Reserve for further monetary easing, which they said was worsening imbalances and destabilising the world economy. Wolfgang Schaüble, Germany’s finance minister, provocatively described US policy as “useless”, arousing surprise and concern from some other G20 officials – especially since finance ministers generally refrain from commenting on the actions of their own or others’ central banks.
与此同时,美国必须应对中国和德国的反攻。中德上周猛烈抨击美联储(Fed)进一步放松货币政策,它们表示,此举将加剧失衡,破坏世界经济稳定。德国财长沃尔夫冈•朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Schäuble)不客气地将美方政策形容为“毫无用处”。此言引起G20其它一些国家官员的意外和担忧,尤其是因为各国财长通常回避就本国或他国央行的行动置评。

Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, on Wednesday made what appeared a coded criticism of China and Germany, telling a London press conference: “I hope that at the G20 meeting this weekend that we will get a co-operative message rather than some of those that we have been getting in the last few days and weeks.”
英国央行(BoE)行长默文•金(Mervyn King)周三发表了似乎是在含蓄批评中国和德国的言论,他在伦敦一个记者会上表示:“我希望我们将从本周末的G20会议上听到一种合作的信息,而非我们在过去几天和几周听到的某些言论。”

Ousmène Mandeng, a former IMF official now at Ashmore Investment Management in London, expressed the frustration of many with the underperformance of the grouping. “The aim seems to be to damp expectations,” he said. “But should it be? At this juncture one would think that the G20 needs to demonstrate leadership.”
IMF前官员、现供职于伦敦安石投资管理公司(Ashmore Investment Management)的Ousmène Mandeng,表达了许多人对于G20表现不尽人意的失望情绪。“目标似乎是压低期望,”他表示。“但应该这样做吗?在当前这个节骨眼上,人们会认为G20需要展示领导力。”

Earlier this week Robert Zoellick, World Bank president, startled many with his suggestion that currency values be determined with reference to gold. Monetary affairs are generally the provision of the bank’s sister institution, the IMF.
本周早些时候,世界银行(World Bank)行长罗伯特•佐利克(Robert Zoellick)提出,各国汇率应参照金价确定,此言令许多人震惊。货币事务通常是世行的姊妹机构——IMF负责的领域。

“Zoellick’s [plan], a wrong proposal from the wrong institution I think, illustrates that there is quite a lot of appetite for ideas but also that there is a vacuum on idea leadership,” said Mr Mandeng.
“我认为佐利克的计划是来自错误机构的一项错误提议,它显示出各个方面都非常愿意提出创意,但也说明在领导创意方面存在真空,”Mandeng表示。

In other areas, actions are either being postponed or implemented partially and at a country level. The G20 is likely to defer decisions on whether large financial institutions should be made to hold more capital, given their threat to the financial system, and people familiar with the process say many decisions are being left to national regulators.
在其它领域,行动或被推迟、或被在国家层面部分实施。G20很可能将推迟决定是否要求大型金融机构持有更多资本(鉴于它们对金融体系的威胁),同时熟悉相关进程的人士表示,许多决定将被留给各国监管机构自己作出。

In trade, although the G20 communiqué is likely to restore the ritual call for a conclusion to the Doha round” of multilateral trade talks, Indian and Brazilian negotiators have said they will not give ground to the US to get to a deal.
在贸易方面,虽然G20公报很可能照例再次呼吁完成多哈回合多边贸易谈判,但印度和巴西谈判代表已表示,他们不会为了达成共识而对美国作出让步。

Recently the European Union did improve considerably the preferential access it offers to exports from poor countries by relaxing the “rules of origin” that determine how many imports those economies can use, but other countries have declined to offer more concessions.
近期欧盟确实大幅改善了其给予穷国出口的优惠准入待遇,放宽了有关那些经济体能够使用多少进口部件的“原产地规则”,但其它国家迄今拒绝作出更多让步。

The summit will have some good news: reform of the IMF’s governance, which will give more votes and more seats on the executive board to emerging market countries. But that deal was concluded among the G20 weeks ago and confirmed by the IMF board last Friday, so will be a success to reflect on rather than to announce.
本次峰会将有一些好消息:改革IMF的治理,这将使新兴市场国家在IMF执行董事会得到更多投票权和更多席位。但那个协议早在几周前就在G20国家之间达成,并在上周五得到IMF董事会证实,因此这将是一项值得回味(而非有待宣布)的成功。

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2010-11-11 22:57 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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