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中国在人口普查——十年一次

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大约有600万中国人已经被调动起来参与到为期十天的全世界最大人口普查中。由于从农村移到城市的移民潮使得这次人口普查变得异常复杂。关于这次统计的准确数字的辩论将不会停止。
Just the one, promiseSOME 6m people in China have been mobilised to conduct a ten-day survey of the world’s largest population. The census is complicated by surging numbers of migrants from rural to urban areas. Debates over the accuracy of the counts will not be laid to rest.
自社会主义以来,这是中国第六次全国性的人口普查。上一次还要追溯到2000年,那一次因为对国内移民潮的松懈管理使得(普查)变得很棘手。调查显示,自从那时起,从农村出来并到城市工作超过六个月的人数已经增长了85%,达到了145,000,000。
This is China’s sixth nationwide census as a communist country. The previous one, in 2000, was already fiendishly hard because of a loosening of controls on internal migration. Surveys suggest that since then the number of people who have moved out of the countryside and taken up urban residence for more than six months has grown by 85%, to 145m.
这些人通常是不告诉政府他们已经移居的,就是为了避免所有的政府机构以及可能涉及的登记新住处所需要的费用。移民特别害怕暴露多余孩子的出生触犯了中国的《计划生育法》的相关规定。
Such people will often not tell the authorities they have moved, in order to avoid all the bureaucracy and possible costs involved in registering a new residence. Migrants are particularly fearful of revealing any children born in violation of China’s frequently strict family-planning regulations.
目前政府官员正在努力让这些移民相信,普查采取的个人信息是保密的,甚至是来自政府其他部门。然而,官方媒体报道称,许多人逃避人口普查人员。初步统计的数据在四月份公布于众。不可避免的未被统计又将作何处理呢,这是个问题。
Now officials are trying to convince people that personal data gathered by census takers will be kept secret, even from other government departments. Still, state media reports that many are evading the enumerators. Preliminary data are due to be released in April. The problem will be how to handle the inevitable undercounting.
2000年的人口普查工作者称大约有1.81%的人未被统计。官方认为该结果处在可以接受的范围。为了填补那些未被统计的人数,他们又在总数的基础上增加了2200万,这样总人口数便是12.7亿。许多那些未被统计的儿童被称为所谓的“黑孩”,这些孩子的出生违反了相关规定,该规定是限制城市夫妇只生一孩。根据抽样调查,政府估计截止到2009年底人口已经达到13.3亿。
In 2000 the census takers reported an undercount of 1.81%. Officials deemed this to be within acceptable limits. To compensate, they added more than 22m notional people to the total, to produce a population of 1.27 billion. Many of the uncounted were so-called “black children”, ie, those born in breach of regulations that limit urban couples to a single child. From sample surveys, officials estimate the population at the end of 2009 to have been 1.33 billion.
在这次人口普查中,移民将不仅在自己家乡的还有在其新的城市被计算,为了让人数再次核对。外国人也将会首次被统计在内。但是学术界称普查数据仍然会被模糊化以适应政府的需求。中国人口高增长率可能会比政府估计的要低很多
In this census, migrants will be counted both in their home town and in their new city so that figures can be cross-checked. Foreigners will be included for the first time. But academics say census data are still being moulded to fit official projections. China’s fertility rate may be much lower than official estimates.
激励报酬偏低的普查工作人员做好工作,这也是个问题。相同的普查工作人员数在2000年是收集350,000,000而这一轮则是400,000,000。不仅仅是移民工作者还有一些新兴的中产阶级不喜欢政府的这种调查。在北京一些调查人员迫于压力已经辞职。
Motivating poorly paid enumerators to do their job properly is another problem. The same number who gathered data from 350m households in 2000 must cover 400m this time round. Not just migrant workers but also the new middle class dislike official prying. In Beijing some census workers have already resigned, citing the pressures.
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2010-11-05 22:29 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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