The general mood among Twitter users can predict the rise and fall of the stock market almost a week in advance, a new study has found. A computer scientist in the US has discovered that the correlation between the Dow Jones and the collective public mood was almost 90 per cent accurate.
The link raises the startling possibility that stockbrokers may one day be able to make bets on the stock market based purely on how people are feeling on Twitter and blogs.
教授Johan Bollen 说，民众的心情高低起伏有预测道琼斯工业指数的能力，最确切的两者相似率竟高达87.6%。
“What we found was an accuracy of 87.6 percent in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average,” IU Associate Professor of Informatics Johan Bollen said.
Earlier studies had found that blogs can be used to gauge the public mood. The theory was also being tested during a period of intense financial instability which mean that stock market fluctuations were far more dramatic than normal.‘This was probably one of the most difficult periods to predict,” Bollen told the magazine. “We had a presidential election, we had what looked to be financial Armageddon, we had the start of what has been the deepest and greatest recession since the 1930s.”
“If our algorithm was able to predict Dow Jones Industrial Average in that period, we figured that may establish some kind of lower baseline. It could do a lot better in other periods of time.”
2010-10-25 22:44 编辑：kuaileyingyu
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