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中国楼市潜伏的三大危险

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上周,美国全国广播公司财经频道CNBC邀请我与前摩根斯坦利前明星经济学家谢国忠进行了20分钟关于中国“牛与熊”的辩论。谢国忠一直是中国经济“唱衰派”的先锋人物。几周前他甚至纂文表示中国的楼市总计价格高于实际价值两倍,房价最终将跌去90%。和空头人物吉姆.查诺斯(Jim Chanos)一样,谢国忠相信,现在这个正在不断变大的泡沫最终将摧毁中国这个世界第二大经济体。
Last week CNBC invited me to debate former Morgan Stanley star economist Andy Xie for about 20 minutes in a China "Bull vs. Bear" showdown. You can see the three segments here, here and here. Xie has been one of the most vocal bears on China's economy for years. He even wrote a few weeks ago that some real estate markets there were going to drop 90% and that overall real estate was priced at twice its actual worth. Add to that a pinch of rising personal, local and central government debt, and Xie, like short-seller Jim Chanos, believes we have the makings of a bubble that could take down the world's second- largest economy.
危险的论调。但谢国忠的论调到底有多少可信度?我个人认为谢国忠过度夸大了高房价和高空置率的危险性。原因在于他忽略了杠杆作用在泡沫形成过程中的作用。杠杆效应,而不是高房价造成系统性风险。中国政府已经出台政策提高了住房购买者的首付比例(首套房30%,二套房50%),这大大减少了杠杆作用以及风险。谢国忠同样低估了中国居民的收入,如果你对这点持有疑问,可以看看去苹果Apple,星巴克Starbuck,耐克Nike咄咄逼人的扩展计划以及他们在中国市场获得的巨大利润。
Scary stuff. But how credible are Xie's arguments? Xie overestimates the dangers of high prices and empty apartments, because he wrongly dismisses the role leverage plays in causing bubbles. Leverage, not high prices, causes systemic risks. China has policies that force residential buyers to have enough cash in hand (30% for your first home and 50% for your second) to minimize leverage and risk. Xie also underestimates how incomes are rising in China. If you don't trust me about that, ask Apple, Starbucks and Nike why they have aggressive growth plans for China and already make huge profits there.
当然,尽管我不同意唱空者关于楼市崩盘的论调,但中国楼市并不是无懈可击。中国政府仍然需要应对一些严肃的问题。
However, although I disagree with the bears' fear of imminent collapse, all is not rosy in China's real estate sector. There are some very real concerns that the government needs to address.
首先,在中国面向中低收入人群的住房不够。开发商一味追求利润最高的高价房忽视了廉价房的建设。中国政府已经意识到这一点,出台了政策限制高占地率独立别墅(很多中国人都住在高楼里)以及大面积公寓的建设。但是,中国的有钱人们并不喜欢小空间的房子,这项限制政策与市场需求相悖,所以效果并不明显。
First, there simply is not enough low- and middle-income housing, because developers build luxury apartments where the fattest margins are. The government recognizes this problem and has slowed the construction of heavy-land-use standalone villas (most homes in China are in skyscrapers). It also has limited the number of large apartments in these complexes. However, wealthy individuals simply buy multiple units and knock down walls in between. Limiting luxury production goes against market demands and is not effective.
政府真正应该做的强制开放商在建造天价房的同时必须在远离市中心的地段建造相对便宜的住宅。这其中还必须包括为非本地人口建造廉租房。这将有效避免美国房地产项目中发生的歧视问题。比如对在上海的本地人和非本地人共同居住的问题。
What the government should be doing is forcing developers who build luxury apartments to also build cheaper units farther away from downtown. These should include a large number of rental units at below market rates that are available for people not originally from the locality. But they should have owners, too, to keep them from being stigmatized the way housing projects are in America's inner cities. This will help solve the problem of, for instance, where in Shanghai non-Shanghai natives can live.
在住房私有化过程中,很多国有企业将他们的房屋已及其低廉的价格出售给了自己的员工。这样的结果就是,如果你是来自上海或者其他的一些发达地区,你可能已经拥有了一套不错的房子,但外来人口却无法获得足够的住房。很多从中国顶尖大学毕业的白领必须在租的房子里睡上五到六年的双人床才能拥有一套自己的住房。
During the great privatization of homes, state-owned enterprises sold housing units to their employees at below market rates. The result is that if you are from Shanghai or another urban area, you probably have decent housing now. However, people who move to Shanghai from other cities can't find adequate housing. Graduates from top universities working at white collar jobs often live five or six to an apartment, in bunk beds.
第二,如果没有便宜和方便的交通支持,即使在远离市区建造再多的住房也是没有用的。所以中国需要加大,而不是减少基础建设的投入。这一点曾经有很大的争论。唱空论者北京大学教授迈克.佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)表示中国经济增长过分依赖对基础建设投入,与九零年代的日本非常相像。但是我很惊讶的是,这样的分析竟然没有将中日两国实际生活水平考虑在内,要知道中国仍然是个相对比较贫穷的国家,而与此同时,日本的生活水平甚至已经超过了美国。
Second, building quality homes in the middle of nowhere does no good without cheap and convenient transportation, so China actually needs to invest more, not less, as many argue, in infrastructure. Many bears like Prof. Michael Pettis of Peking University fret that China is relying too heavily on infrastructure investment for its growth gains and is becoming like Japan in the 1990s. Such analysis surprisingly fails to take into account the differences between China's and Japan's spending and the fact that many Chinese are still heartbreakingly poor while Japan's quality of life is arguable higher than America's.
日本基础建设的投入十分浪费。道路项目通道了每一个的小村庄。而中国对成都等主要城市地铁道路建设大大的带来了生产力。这一点正和六零年代的日本很像,那时候的发展建设最终帮助日本在七八十年代的经济崛起。
Japan's infrastructure investment is incredibly wasteful. Roads and projects prop up tiny hamlets that are unsustainable without subsidies. China, on the other hand, is investing in projects like subway systems in its major cities like Chengdu and in railroads that increase productivity, much as Japan did in the 1960s, which helped it become an economic might in the 1970s and 1980s.
中国还有100多个人口在一百万以上的城市没有地跌,城市交通依然非常糟糕,仍然需要更加高速的铁路来联通各个城市。就在去年,从上海到武汉需要坐12小时火车。今年由于新的铁路建成,时间被缩短到了5小时。所以不同于日本,在中国加大对基础建设的投入依旧有助生产力发展。
There is still more room for growth, however. China has more than 100 cities with a million or more people, and most of those cities still don't have subways. Traffic snarls are horrible. And faster railroads are needed to connect those cities. Last year it took 12 hours by rail to travel between Shanghai and Wuhan, where over 30 million people live. This year new rail links cut the travel time to five hours. China's infrastructure investment increases productivity, while Japan's saps it.
最后,尽管如今中国的房地产市场不存在泡沫,但中国一定不可能一直避免发展泡沫与经济循环。在一定的时间,经济增长一定会放缓,萧条也会出现。但这些一定不会发生在现在。中国经济发展的起点很低,市场的效率总体不高。有四亿人口需要从农村走向城市,这些人都需要房子,经济结构也会随他们的到来变化。
Finally, though there's no real estate bubble right now, China is absolutely not immune to bubbles and economic cycles. At some point, the country's growth will slow, perhaps a lot, and there certainly will be recessions. But that time is not now. China's economy is still starting from a low point, and its market remains inefficient overall. More than 400 million people are shifting from agricultural lives to urban ones, and they will need more homes and a change in economic structuring. Companies are investing in all that.
我所在的公司中国市场研究集团在过去三个月访问了几百家跨国公司的执行官,他们中的80%表示在未来三年会加大对中国市场的投入,绝大部分预计在今年会获得更高的收益。
My firm, the China Market Research Group, interviewed executives from several hundred big multinationals over the past quarter, and 80% of them said they planned to substantially increase domestic investment over the next three years. Most expect increased profits this year.
中国确实需要面对很多经济挑战,但这些挑战绝对不会导致中国经济的系统崩溃。相反,为越来越多的城市人口提供的住房和基础建设,是困难更是机遇,为中国在未来几年经济增长打下基础。这点和六零年代十分相似。
China has very real economic challenges to face. However, these challenges do not threaten a systemic collapse. On the contrary, the difficulties and opportunities to provide more housing and infrastructure for an urbanizing and increasingly wealthy population mean that China still has years of growth left, much as Japan had in the 1960s.
肖恩.雷(Shaun Rein)是战略咨询公司中国市场研究集团的创始人和营运总监。为《财富》领导力,市场,中国项目供稿。
Shaun Rein is the founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group, a strategic market intelligence firm. He writes for Forbes on leadership, marketing and China.
标签:危险 中国 楼市
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2010-10-15 16:03 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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