China’s average annual rate of economic growth over the next two decades will fall to little more than half the current level as its ability to sustain huge investment declines, according to the Asian Development Bank.
亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)称，随着中国维持巨额投资的能力下滑，中国年均经济增长率在未来20年将下降至略高于目前水平的一半。
Such a slowdown would have a dramatic effect on China’s place in the world, significantly delaying the moment at which its economy surpasses that of the US as the world’s largest, having overtaken Japan as the second largest earlier this year.
Jim O’Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs, forecast in 2009 that China could overtake the US by 2027. However, that prediction relied on China achieving growth of “close to 10 per cent for many years”.
高盛(Goldman Sachs)全球经济研究部主管吉姆•奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)2009年预测，中国可能在2027年赶超美国。但这项预测的前提是中国增长率“多年接近10%”。
In its first official attempt to quantify China’s long-term growth prospects, the ADB said on Tuesday that its baseline projection was just 5.5 per cent on average for the 20 years to 2030, compared with 9.4 per cent between 1981 and 2007 and a forecast 9.6 per cent this year. Growth could average 6.6 per cent if China implemented reforms to reduce its dependence on investment and increase productivity through improvements in education, property rights and research and development, the ADB said. Jong-Wha Lee, ADB chief economist, said many other countries in Asia would face the same growth problem because their rapid rates of economic growth in the past three decades had been underpinned by unsustainable levels of investment. “We don’t think these countries can go back to the previous levels of strong growth that they had before the global financial crisis,” he said. The ADB report forecasts that South Korea’s long-term economic growth will fall from an average of 6.3 per cent to a baseline projection of 3.9 per cent, Taiwan’s from 6.1 per cent to 3.1 per cent, Indonesia’s from 4.8 per cent to 4.4 per cent and India’s from 5.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent.