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中国的计划生育是成还是败?

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After three decades, the drawbacks of the one-child policy are more and more apparent

30年后,独生子女政策的弊端凸显越来越明显

During the period that I grew up in China in the 1960s and 70s, Chinese families could have as many children as they liked. Many had four or five children. Some even had six or seven.

在我生活的中国20世纪60年代和70年代,中国家庭可以尽他们喜欢,有尽可能多的子女。有的家庭有四个或五个孩子。有的家庭甚至有六个或七个孩子。

My parents had four children. After the government started enforcing the rule of one child per family - often forcibly - my parents would sometimes jokingly remind me that I was an "exceeded quota person", meaning that under the one-child policy I would not have existed.

我的父母有四个孩子。在政府开始执行独生子女政策后(可以说是强行政策),我的父母有时会开玩笑地提醒我,我是一个“超生儿”,即在独生子女政策下,我是不应该被生下来的,是有违政策的。

Chairman Mao, who led China from 1949 until his death in 1976, regarded a fast-growing population as a productive force necessary for China to become a great power.

毛主席(从1949年执政中国一直到他1976年逝世)认为:中国要想成为强大的国家必须通过人口的快速增长来满足生产力的增长。

He treated brutally those who dared to question him and believed that China should control its population.

他残酷地对待质疑他并倡导中国应该控制人口的人。

His successor Deng Xiaoping started to reverse the trend.

他的继任者邓小平开始扭转这一趋势。

He felt the tremendous drag China's huge population had on its fragile economic recovery after years of political turmoil.

他感觉到经过多年的政治动荡后,中国的庞大人口对脆弱的经济复苏带来了巨大的阻力。

On 25 September 1980, the Politburo of the Communist Party issued an "open letter" to all members of the party and the Communist youth league, urging them to take the lead in having only one child.

1980年9月25日,中央政治局对所有党员和共产主义青年联盟成员发出“公开信”,敦促他们要起到执行独生子女政策的带头作用。

This is widely seen as the beginning of the controversial one-child policy.

这是被广泛认为的备受争议的独生子女政策的开始。

The government claims that the policy has helped the country achieve 400 million fewer births during the past 30 years.

政府声称,这项政策已帮助该国实现在过去的30年里少生4亿人口。

But this has come at a painful cost - keenly felt by my generation and those after us.

但是,这个也是以一个痛苦的代价换来的——我们这一代以及后代能够敏锐的该受到。

One of my childhood friends, who didn't want to reveal his name, has had to let his daughter, his second child, call him uncle in order to escape punishment for breaking the rule.

我童年的一位不愿透露姓名的的朋友告诉我,他曾不得不让他的女儿(他的第二个孩子)叫他叔叔,以逃避违反政策的惩罚。

He says it breaks his heart every time he talks about his daughter, who is officially registered as someone else's child.

他说每当他提到他女儿的时候都很心酸,因为他女儿已经落户到别人的家庭。

A female friend, like countless other young couples in China, had to pay a large fine for having a second child. But she believed the money was worth it.

我的一位女性朋友,和众多中国年轻夫妇一样,不得不支付因为有了第二个孩子的一大笔罚款。但是她认为罚款是值得的。

Falling fertility 生育率降低

Officials have repeatedly stressed that this "fundamental policy of the state", which has been credited with helping reduce the pressure of population growth on society and economic development, will continue.

官方一再强调,这项减轻人口增长对社会的压力以及帮助经济发展的“基本国策”将继续执行下去。

But the government has already been challenged over whether the 400 million fewer births were entirely due to the implementation of this policy.

但是,人们对4亿人口的减少是否是该项政策执行的成果,向政府提出了质疑。

A team of independent Chinese and foreign academics completed what they said was the first systematic examination of the one-child policy three years ago.

一个独立的中外学者团队完成了三年前他们对独生子女政策的问卷调查。

They pointed out that the reduction was mainly due to a fall in the fertility rate (the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) in the 1970s when the government began to encourage delayed marriages, longer intervals between births and fewer children.

他们指出,人口的减少主要是由于上世纪70年代生育率的降低,那时政府倡导晚婚,生育和少生的间隔时间变长。

According to Professor Wang Feng of the University of California, who led the study, China's fertility rate was reduced from more than five to just over two before family planning policy was introduced in 1978.

据美国加州大学的王峰教授(该项研究的主导者)说,中国的生育率从1978年开始实行人口限制政策的降低2倍上升到5倍多。

The debate over whether the one-child policy is still needed was recently stirred up by a newspaper report about the little publicised case of Yicheng county, in the northern province of Shanxi.

一篇山西北部的翼城县的宣传报道,掀起了关于独生子女政策是否还需要的辩论。

Yicheng has been experimenting with a two-child policy for 25 years, said The Southern Weekend, a liberal newspaper based in the southern city of Guangzhou, close to Hong Kong.

南方周末(一份总部位于广州南部,毗邻香港的开放性报纸)说,翼城已经试行两个孩子政策25年。

Despite its more relaxed regulations, the county has a lower than average population growth rate, the report said.

报道称:尽管有宽松的政策,但全县的人口增长率还是低于平均人口增长率。

After three decades, the drawbacks of the one-child policy are more and more apparent.

经过30年后,独生子女政策的弊端越来越明显的凸显出来。

Even though China still has the largest population in the world, a report last month by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a leading government think tank, said officials were seriously overestimating the fertility rate.

尽管当今中国仍然是世界上人口最多的国家,中国社会科学研究院(政府智囊团)上个月报告说:政府严重高估了生育率。

Instead of suppressing it, the report said the government should try to lift it. More and more people in China, largely in urban areas, prefer to have fewer children.

报告说:政府应该想办法减轻压抑,现在越来越多的人,尤其是生活在大城市的人,都宁愿少要孩子。

It is unclear when Beijing might end the one-child policy. But attention will be focused on an upcoming meeting of the party central committee next month.

目前还不清楚中央何时取消独生子女政策,但是该议题将会在下个月的党中央委员会会议上重点讨论。

It will finalise a five-year social and economic development plan, only the 12th since the Communist Party took power in 1949.

这将完成自1949年共产党执政以来的第12个五年社会经济发展规划。

Clearly, the situation is becoming urgent. Already the country's population is ageing fast. The first children born under the one-child policy face the prospect of caring for an ever-increasing number of pensioners.

显然,这种状况正变得迫切。中国的人口老龄化速度加快。在独生子女政策下出生的第一个孩子将面临越来越严重的赡老问题。

China also faces the daunting prospect of many men who can't find wives as many female foetuses have been aborted, resulting in a huge gender imbalance.

中国将面临由于女性胎儿的流产,许多男性无法找到妻子的可怕前景,这将导致严重的性别比例失衡。

The clock is ticking.

时间正在流逝。

标签:中国
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2010-09-27 22:19 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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