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孩子会比老子富吗?

所属:成长励志 作者:网络转载 阅读:9728 次 评论:0 条 [我要评论]  [+我要收藏]

绝大部分的父母都希望看到自己的孩子比自己在经济上富裕,这也是孩子们的普遍希望。但是现在的一项民意调查显示,在美国,不论是绝大多数的父母还是孩子,都不太相信这个希望能成真。现在有很多人对这些民意调查进行了评论,但很少有人系统的分析,是什么决定了孩子会比父母富裕,而又是为什么现在美国对这个结论持消极观点的人明显增多。
The great majority of parents would like to see their children become better off economically than they are, and that hope would be even more common among the children. Yet, polls for a while have suggested that neither the majority of children nor parents in the United States are confident that this progress will happen. Despite frequent recent commentary on these polls, little systematic analysis has been presented of what determines whether the average child will be better off than the average parent, and why pessimism about such progress has apparently grown in the US.
成年子女所挣到钱的多少与父母在相同年龄挣到钱的多少之间的关系,受到很多因素的影响,这些因素在每一个不同的家庭又是绝不相同的。子女的能力与健康是与其家长,与子女和父母在工作和做其他选择时的运气如何,与家长对于保证子女能比自己富裕的关心程度,以及其为这个家庭的特殊考虑程度有着密切关系。我不会研究个别家庭的特殊因素,相反,我研究的中心点是,普通的一代人比其上一代人富裕的程度是多少。
The relation in particular families between say the earnings of adult children and those of their parents at comparable ages depends on many factors unique to any family. The abilities and health of the children relative to that of their parents, the luck of both children and parents in occupational and other choices, how concerned are the parents about ensuring that their children will become better off than they are, and many other considerations special to that family. I will not deal with individual family idiosyncratic factors, and instead focus my analysis on how well average persons in one generation fare compared to average persons in their parents’ generation.
到目前为止,人均收入的增长率是决定子女比父母富裕的最重要的单一变量。如果随着时间的增长人均收入停滞不前——世界上大部分国家在很长一段时间内——那么这一代人的经济状况就会和上一代相似。长时间期望的子女比父母富裕的期望就显得不合规则了。
The rate of growth in per capita income is by far the most important single variable in determining whether children will be better off than their parents. If per capita income is stagnating over time-the lot of the world throughout the vast majority of history- the average person in one generation will tend to be about as well off as the average person in his parent’s generation. Expectation during this long history of time that children will be better off then their parents would have been atypical.
在过去的几个世纪里,世界上很多国家都经历了人均收入的持续增长,这也就从根本上改变了这种期望。例如,每年的人均收入只增长一个百分点,那么下一代人的人均收入就会高出这一代30%——假设每25年出生一代人。从19世纪中期至21世纪早期,美国人均收入平均每年增长2%。这意味着,在这段时期的150年间,或六代人之间,每一代的平均收入都超过上一代的60%左右。
During the past couple of centuries, much of the world has experienced systematic growth in per capita incomes that has radically changed such expectations. For example, if income per capita were growing only at 1 percent per year, the average individual in the next generation would have about a 30% higher income than the average individual in the present generation- I assume that generations differ by about 25 years. From about the middle of the 19th century to the beginning of the 21st century, per capita incomes in the US grew on average close to 2% per year. This implies that over this period of more than 150 years, or about 6 generations, the average income in one generation would have been about 60% higher than the average income in the prior generation.
此外,在20世纪,人类健康状况有很大改善,母亲难产死亡及婴儿在出生前三年内死亡的情况基本消除。同时,大批移民涌入美国,在这里,他们赚到了比父辈们在自己国家要多得多的钱。无疑,那时美国人民对于子女比父母这一希望普遍持乐观态度。人们对这一期望开始感到不那么乐观,主要是因为对美国继续保持和过去一样的经济增长率开始感到不乐观了。
Add to this that health improved rapidly during the 20th century as mortality of mothers during childbirth and that of children during their first 3 years were virtually eliminated, and that the huge number of immigrants to America did vastly better than their parents did in their home countries. No wonder that optimism abounded in the United States about how children would fare compared to that of their parents. The decline in this optimism is mainly related to declines in expectations about whether the US will continue to grow at similar rates as in the past.
在迅猛发展的发展中国家,两代人之间的差距更为显著。拿中国来说,它的人均收入增长自1980左右就保持在每年约8%的水平。在这样一个增长环境下,下一代人的人均收入将是这一代人的六倍多。当然大多数中国家庭都为他们国家正在发生的变化感到高兴,也很满意政府的政策,尽管在言论和写作自由上还受诸多限制。
The difference between generations is even more dramatic in rapidly developing nations. Consider, for example, China with a per capita income that has been growing at around 8% per year since about 1980. In such a growth environment, the average income in the next generation would be more than six times larger than that in the present generation. No wonder most Chinese families are happy with what is happening in their country and with their government’s policies, despite various restrictions on freedom of speech and writing.
一个人的幸福和对未来的乐观态度,不仅仅取决于对两代普通人之间收入和健康状况的比较。不同年代人之间经济不平均程度的变化也有着重要的影响。不平均的形势自1980年以来在美国及其他发达及发展中国家就越来越严峻。随着代与代之间收入分布不均的的情况加剧,即使人均收入不变,高收入的家庭由于自身条件优越,就会对孩子的前途报更高的期望,希望他们也成为高收入者。相反,收入较低的父母,如果觉得自己的孩子也会成为下一代的低收入者的话,就不会对孩子的前途报太大的期望。
Comparisons among the income and health of the average person in different generations are not the only determinant of wellbeing and optimism about the future. Changes over generations in the degree of economic inequality also have important effects. Inequality has increased considerably since 1980 in the United States, and many other countries, developing as well as developed. When inequality is growing between generations, even if per capita income were stagnant, families at the higher end of the income distribution in their generation would be optimistic about their children’s prospects relative to their own, as long as they expect their children to also be at the higher end of the income distribution in the children’s generation. Conversely, under the same conditions, parents at the lower end of the income distribution would be pessimistic about their children’s opportunities if they expect their children also to be at the lower end of their generation’s income distribution.
决定子女和父母经济地位关系的第三个因素,叫做代际收入流动比例。也就是说,父母相对富裕使得子女在他们那一代相对富裕,以及父母相对贫穷使得子女在他们那一代相对贫穷的比例。当代际收入流动比例相对较低时,富裕的家长对孩子的前程就相对乐观,而贫穷的家长就相对悲观。有证据显示,美国的代际收入流动比例有所下降,这就导致相对贫穷的家庭对孩子前途有着较严重的悲观情绪。
A third factor determining the relation between childrens’ and parents’ economic position is called the degree of intergenerational income mobility. That is, the degree to which richer parents are likely to have richer children relative to the income of the children’s generation, and the degree to which poorer parents are likely to have poorer children relative to the children’s generation. When the degree of intergenerational mobility is lower, rich parents will tend to be more optimistic about their children’s prospects, and poorer parents will tend to be more pessimistic. Some evidence suggests that intergenerational mobility in the US has fallen some over time, which would lead to greater pessimism among poorer families about their children’s prospects.
尽管从1980年开始分布不均愈演愈烈,尽管代际收入流动比例明显下降,我还是认为,对经济增长的担心,是导致对美国长期经济发展的悲观情绪增长的主要原因。我在这个博客的很多篇文章中都讨论过这个问题,经济更快地增长能帮忙偿还不断增加的政府债务,缓解经济的不平等及消除引起对未来经济发展感到悲观的因素。
Despite the inequality that has grown by a lot since 1980, and intergenerational mobility that has apparently fallen, I believe that fears about economic growth are the main reason for the growing pessimism in the US about the long-term economic future. As I have argued on many occasions in posts on this blog, faster economic growth by the US can compensate for growing government debt, growing inequality, and other factors that create pessimism about the economic future.
我不会重复太多关于美国及其他富国如何促进经济长期增长,这我之前已经讨论过了(例如,你们可以参考我8月15日最新发布的关于如何促进增长的文章)。我用三点来总结这个讨论。首先,最重要的是改善美国的K-12(从幼儿园到12年级)学校系统,使贫穷家庭的学生有更多的机会上学,那样就有更多的学生能从高中毕业,也就能为进入大学做更好的准备——最近关于美国大学生入学考试成绩的报道让人读了感到很沮丧,因为超过一半参加考试的学生都没有为学习大学课程做过准备。
I will not repeat much of what I have said previously on improving long-term economic growth in the United States and other rich countries (for example, see my most recent post on August 15th for some discussion of how to improve growth). I summarize these discussions by stressing three factors. Of greatest importance are improvements in the American K-12 school system available to students from poorer families, so that many more of these students graduate high school, and those who graduate are better prepared for college-the recent report on the results of scores on the ACT test is depressing reading since it shows that far more than half of all students taking the test are unprepared for college courses.
其次,降低个人收入税收及企业资本收益增值税收也很重要,这样能刺激更大规模的投资和创新。最后,通过将病人的医疗费用转换成更多的现金支付,将公共及其他福利制度转换成固定付款计划而不是固定受益计划。
Second, it is important to have low marginal tax rates on personal and corporate incomes, and on capital gains, in order to stimulate greater investments and innovations. Finally, entitlement need to be brought under greater control by shifting much more of medical costs to patients through greater out of pocket payments, and by converting public and other pension systems to defined contribution systems rather than defined benefit systems.
美国对自己的未来一直都很乐观。在过去的二十年里,这种乐观态度的减少时可以理解的,但也十分令人惋惜。重塑这种乐观态度最后的办法就是继续加快经济增长。正确的政策是可行的,但是它却不会自己去实行。如果不重新定向各种公共优先权,即使是美国,也没法对未来感到乐观。
America has always been optimistic about its future. The decline in such optimism during the past couple of decades is understandable, but highly regrettable. The best way to restore this optimism is to promote faster economic growth. That is feasible with the right policies, but will not happen automatically. Even America has no destiny to be optimistic about the future without important redirection of various public priorities.
标签:孩子 老子
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2010-08-31 21:09 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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