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气候是引发中国战争的罪魁祸首(科学美国人)

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真的能把中国2,000年来的外族入侵、叛乱谋反和国内战争归咎于气候模式?
Could 2,000 years of foreign invasions, rebellions and civil war really be boiled down to weather patterns?
周三发表的一个研究大胆认为中国2,000年来的外族入侵和内部战争主要是由气候变冷而不是封建制度、阶级斗争或者朝廷无能引起的。
Two millennia of foreign invasions and internal wars in China were driven more by cooling climate than by feudalism, class struggle or bad government, a bold study released Wednesday argued.
这项研究发现无论是因饥荒诱发的国内暴乱还是蒙古草原饥饿牧民大举侵犯中原都与长期的天气变冷有关。
Food shortages severe enough to spark civil turmoil or force hordes of starving nomads to swoop down from the Mongolian steppes were consistently linked to long periods of colder weather, the study found.
研究者还说,与此相反的是中原稳定繁荣时期气候刚好都处于温暖期。
In contrast, the Central Kingdom's periods of stability and prosperity occurred during sustained warm spells, the researchers said.
认为由气候造成的灾难(如干旱,洪涝和蝗虫)引起中国的改朝换代的理论并不是新花样。
Theories that weather-related calamities such as drought, floods and locust plagues steered the unraveling or creation of Chinese dynasties are not new.
但直到现在,也没有人系统的研究过中国两千年来动荡不安的历史以探明气候和中国社会到底有什么具体的联系。
But until now, no one had systematically scanned the long sweep of China's tumultuous history to see exactly how climate and Chinese society might be intertwined.
由北京中科院张志斌教授领衔的中欧科学家团队决定对比中国1,900年来的战争和气候变化数据资料。
Chinese and European scientists led by Zhibin Zhang of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing decided to compare two sets of data over 1,900 years.
通过翻阅历史档案,他们仔细查阅了战争频率,米价飙升,蝗灾,干旱和洪涝的资料。为了互不干扰,他们还把内部纷争和外部战争区分开来。
Digging into historical archives, they looked at the frequency of war, price hikes of rice, locust plagues, droughts and floods. For conflict, they distinguished between internal strife and external wars.
同时,他们重构了那些朝代的气候模式。
At the same time, they reconstructed climate patterns over the period under review.
最后,他们总结出汉 (25-220), 唐 (618-907), 北宋 (960-1125), 南宋(1127-1279) 和明(1368-1644) 等朝代的灭亡都与温度过低或者温度急剧降低密切相关。
"The collapses of the agricultural dynasties of the Han (25-220), Tang (618-907), Northern Song (960-1125), Southern Song (1127-1279) and Ming (1368-1644) are closely associated with low temperature or the rapid decline in temperature," they conclude.
作者认为食物短缺首先会削弱朝廷的实力,同时会促使那些对温度下降更加敏感的游牧民族南侵同样说着中国话的邻居。
A shortage of food would have weakened these dynasties, and pushed nomads in the north -- even more vulnerable to dips in temperature -- to invade their southern, Chinese-speaking neighbors, the authors argued.
温度平均每年下降2.0摄氏度(3.6华氏温度)就会使牲畜赖以生存的草原生长周期缩短将近40天。
A drop of 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in average annual air temperature can shorten the growing season for steppe grasses, which are critical for livestock, by up to 40 days.
“当气候恶化超出现有技术和经济体制所能承受的范围时,他们要么迁徙要么挨饿”他们说。
"When the climate worsens beyond what the available technology and economic system can compensate for, people are forced to move or starve," they said.
这个研究表明气候变冷时,干旱和洪涝都会增多,而战争的导火索则一般为米价飙升或者蝗灾泛滥。
The study found more droughts and floods during cold periods, but the factors that contributed most directly to wars and dynastic breakup were soaring rice prices and locust infestations.
他们还指出罗马和玛雅也是在天气较冷时期灭亡的。
The Roman and Mayan empires, they noted, also fell during cold periods.
张和他的同事发现地球温度每160或320年发生的周期性变化与自然气候变化有关。所谓自然气候变化也就是太阳活动,地球公转和自转轨道的波动。
Zhang and colleagues speculated that periodic temperature shifts roughly every 160 or 320 years were related to natural climate changes, namely fluctuations in solar activity and in Earth's orbit and axial spin.
这个小组说研究表明气候变化会导致动乱和战争。
The team said the findings demonstrate that climate change can lead to unrest and warfare.
根据英国Proceedings of the Royal Society B期刊的报道“历史学家普遍认为朝代更替或复辟是由朝廷统治和阶级斗争决定的,然而,气候的波动也会通过改变社会结构而影响改朝换代”
"Historians commonly attribute dynastic transitions or cycles to the quality of government and class struggles," according to the paper, published in the British journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B. "However, climatic fluctuation may be a significant factor interacting with social structures in affecting the rise and fall of cultures and dynasties."
但他们发现的历史证据表明罪魁祸首是全球变冷而不是全球变暖。
But the historical evidence they found points to global cooling, not to global warming, as the culprit.
但科学家们对进一步立项则表现的相当谨慎。联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)2007年的一次会议指出本世纪人为导致的气候变暖将会导致更多干旱,洪涝,风暴和海平面上升,而这有可能使数以百万计的人陷于饥荒和灾难之中。
The scientists were cautious about making projections for the future. In 2007, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said that man-made warming this century will lead to worse droughts, floods, harsh storms and sea level rise, with the potential to inflict hunger and misery on millions.
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2010-07-19 11:54 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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  • Guest 说:

    翻译得不行啊。Chinese-speaking neighbors是“讲中文的邻居”而不是“同样讲中文的邻居”; The scientists were cautious about making projections for the future这句话里面的projections应当是“预测”而不是“立项”。

    2010-07-23 11:08 回复 支持(0) 反对(0) 沙发
  • Guest 说:

    it is hopped that nothing bad will happen in the near future

    2010-07-23 15:57 回复 支持(0) 反对(0) 板凳