Global miners BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale of Brazil will demand further price increases for steelmaking commodities iron ore and coking coal, as strong Chinese demand and supply disruptions keep the market tight.
全球矿商必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、力拓(Rio Tinto)和巴西淡水河谷(Vale)将要求铁矿石和炼焦煤等炼钢用大宗商品进一步涨价。目前中国强劲的需求和供应中断使市场持续吃紧。
The cost of iron ore and coking coal is key to the global economy as it filters into steel and ultimately everyday goods.
Mining and steel executives said, on average, iron ore prices for the third quarter would rise by 30-35 per cent while coking coal prices would increase by 10-15 per cent, either pushing up the cost of steel or denting steelmakers' profits.
These rises come on top of increases of 90-100 per cent for iron ore and 55 per cent for coking coal in the second quarter, which triggered fears of higher inflation in emerging nations.
The rises, which cover the July-September period, will be the first triggered by the new quarterly pricing system linked to the spot market. The scheme replaced the 40-year-old benchmark system of annual contracts and lengthy price negotiations this year.
“The super-cycle for bulk commodities remains on track,” said Melinda Moore, commodities analyst at Credit Suisse.
瑞信(Credit Suisse)大宗商品分析师梅林达•摩尔(Melinda Moore)表示：“大宗商品仍处于超级周期。”
Ekkehard Schulz, chief executive of Germany's Thyssen-Krupp, one of the world's largest steelmakers, warned at the weekend of a bubble in raw materials.
“The dimensions [of the bubble] could even be larger than the real estate problem in the US two years ago. If we are not prepared to take decisive action against raw materials speculators . . . they will become a serious threat to the entire steel sector and the global economy,” he told Der Spiegel magazine.
Steel and mining executives said iron ore prices would surge to $130-$135 a tonne, up from $100 this quarter and $60 a tonne last year. Coking coal prices would hit $225 a tonne next quarter, up from $200 in April-June and $129 last year.
The final price will fluctuate from company to company due to the use of different price formulas. In general, quarterly contracts are set based on a three-month average of price indices for the period ending one month before the onset of the new quarter.
Companies use different systems, including one- and two-month averages.
Spot iron ore and coking coal prices hit their highest level in two years early this month as crude steel production surged.