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未来,中国的互联网会是什么样子?

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这些年来关于中国互联网未来的争论一直不断,而且每每都有新的消息掀起争论的风潮。比如最近,中国政府就曾委托给各网络服务商帮助参与国际机密泄露行为的鉴定任务。
Debate about the future of the Internet in China continues, with fresh news seemingly arriving weekly to stir the debate. Recently, the Chinese government mandated that ISPs help identify leaks of state secrets.
三月份,某大学副教授马晓海等22人被检方指控犯有不道德的网络行为。据报道,这些人的犯罪活动,就是由现年53岁的马晓海通过网络论坛来组织的。 这些事件引发了人们关于公民权利自由以及中国互联网扮演的角色到底是什么,政府在监管网络活动中的角色又是什么等这些问题的追问。
In March, Chinese authorities charged 22 defendants with immoral conduct after learning of dozens of sexual encounters encouraged by an online forum run by 53-year-old college professor Ma Xiaohai. These events raise questions about civil liberties and the role of the Internet in China -- how both are evolving in the digital age, and the role the government will play in monitoring online activity.
尽管人们有各种猜测,中国互联网将会走向何方这个问题依然没有明确的答案。根据我的调查和研究,在目前中国网络形势背景之下,未来中国互联网有可能会呈现如下景象。
Although many speculate, there is no clear answer for how the Internet will evolve in China. The following scenario-based exercise, based on my research, describes various ways things may turn out against the backdrop of other issues.
1 “ 辉煌之塔 ” 假说。不久之后,中国网络将是大型跨国公司的天下,而这些公司都和政府保持密切联系。不论是国内的企业还是国外的公司,在经营中都要共同遵循政府的制度,服从监管。在线广告,用户服务,电子产品交易等商业活动将会主导网络世界。辉煌之塔这样的场景描绘了市场化的网络世界,同时有政府来主导网络的互联,但是,网络的基础结构和规章制度本是用来服务商业利益,而不是国家利益的。尽管网络将会是更加开放,而现在依然是企业在控制着话语权。他们鼓励用户参与消费,并且对某一品牌保持忠诚,同时反对一切可能伤害整体商业利益的行为。然而这却并不符合公平竞争的精神。
Proud Tower. In this future, China’s Internet is the work of large, global companies with close ties to the government. Corporations based in China, and international firms with deep Chinese footprints, negotiate control of the Net from the government to serve business. Online advertising, consumer engagement (including gaming), and the delivery of proprietary digital goods and services dominate the digital landscape. The Proud Tower scenario offers a market-driven Internet with some ties to the government to ensure connectivity, but infrastructure and regulation are intended to serve commercial interests, not those of the state. Although the Net is more open, business now controls the dialogue. Users are encouraged to act as consumers and align with a brand and are discouraged from activities that would hurt business in general, but competitive positioning is fair game.
2 ”大陆漂移“假说。这种情况和今天的中国现状有很多共同之处。无论国内还是国外的任何组织,都必须在政府的政策允许范围内运作,并且政府的政策还有可能根据国际的、国家的甚至地区的一些事件发生改变。在这种模式之下,中国会趋向于内向发展,集中精力推动国家创新,吸收各国的人才资源,建立他们的区域性标准,形成监管更严格的自我保护市场。在这儿,互联网会成为隶属于政府的资产。在大陆漂移假设情景中,互联网会作为一种监督思想动态的工具得到更加广泛的使用。
Continental Drift. This scenario leaves China in much the place we find it today. Any organization, domestic or foreign, must operate within the confines of government policy, and that policy can change based on events local, national, or international -- and through political whim. This is a future in which China turns inward and focuses on driving national innovation, usurping foreign intellectual property, developing regional standards, and creating heavily regulated protectionist markets. The Internet here is a government asset that serves the nation as seen through the eyes of its leaders. Continental Drift would see continued, widespread use of the Internet for surveillance and the spread of ideology.
3 ”边境摩擦“ 假说。这一结果描绘了世界经济出现崩溃,中国也没有能够逃脱厄运,网络的互联会变得非常有限,并且呈现出区域性的特点。中国的互联网和其他国家一样,都在艰难地开始重建。 我们很难预测那时候互联网会变成什么样子,由谁管理控制,以及它能用来做的事。
Frontier Friction. This outcome paints a world of collapsed economies, and China does not escape the collapse. In this future, what connectivity still exists is limited and very local. China’s Internet, like that of other nations, is reinventing itself from the ground up. There is little visibility into the ultimate shape the new connectivity will take, who will control it, and what it will be used for.
4 ” 自由职业者的星球“ 假说。这种情况设想中国公民可以越来越多的控制自己的生活,互联网日益成为企业和个人的关系交流渠道。中国逐渐放宽了网络的诸多限制。政府将会和网络上的各种意识形态进行竞争,用以保持他们在人们生活中的核心地位。中国政府会积极地对国家事业与立场进行宣传,对抗来自其他阵营的各种不和谐的声音。
Freelance Planet. This scenario envisions the citizens of China taking more and more control of their lives, and the Internet becoming an open conduit for business and personal relationships. China slowly relaxes its restrictions on access and its monitoring of topics. Rather than creating a completely non-nationalistic future, the government would compete among the ideologies accessible on the Net so as not to concede its central position in people’s lives. The Chinese government advertises its causes and positions against a cacophony of other positions.
这四种可能的情况反应了对于中国未来社会,科技,经济以及政治的不同的猜想,不过,互联网不是一个纯粹的单独变量。通过观察中国的互联网政策,我们可以预测其他的互联网元素在未来的存在形式。包括什么样的商业形式也可能采用,它又将如何影响国际政策,以及它在人权问题上的公信力。
These scenarios highlight four possible answers that reflect very different social, technological, economic, and political assumptions about China’s future. But the Internet is not an independent variable. By monitoring Internet policy, we can begin to presage other important elements of China’s future, including what forms of commerce it may adopt, how it will attempt to influence International policy, and its credibility in human rights.
对中国互联网的未来,无论什么答案都不会是唯一的。想要在中国去得成功的企业和组织,都需要放弃他们的一切猜疑,面对各种未知状况,坚强地走下去。
There is no single answer to the future of China’s Internet. Those organizations that want to succeed in China need to abandon their assumptions and confront uncertainty in a robust way -- or risk misalignment with the future that does unfold.
标签:互联网 中国
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2010-05-04 20:33 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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