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黄金到底能涨多高

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由于美元疲软,投资者对这一保值贵金属的需求持续上升,金价已达历史最高点,突破1100美元/盎司。
Gold has reached an all-time high, breaking through the $1,100 an ounce barrier on a weaker US dollar and the continued appetite from investors for the precious metal's safe-haven attributes.
黄金的需求依旧强劲,即使Harrods,这一位于Knightsbridge的著名商场,也开始向其高端顾客出售金条和金币。
Demand continues to be strong – even Harrods, the famous Knightsbridge store, is getting in on the act by selling gold bars and coins to its upmarket customers.
一年来,黄金价格已上升了20%,但问题依旧:黄金到底能涨多高?
Gold has returned more than 20pc over the past year but the question remains: how high can the price of gold go?
下面是全球一些分析师的观点。
Here are the thoughts of analysts taken from around the globe.
索奇·库珀,期货分析师,巴克莱银行 库珀说:“我们估计2010上半年前金价都将保持上升趋势,第二季度的平均价格估计为1140美元。印度储蓄银行出人意料地购买(IMF的)黄金助长了黄金将继续上升的观点。即便如此,黄金的属性并未改变,而我们看到投资者对黄金的态度改变了。从官方部门到散户投资者,需求方都发生了结构性改变。”
Suki Cooper, commodities analyst, Barclays CapitalMs Cooper said: “We expect prices to maintain their upward momentum through to at least the first half of 2010, where we expect prices to average $1,140 in the second quarter. The unexpected purchase of gold by the Reserve Bank of India has only added to the positive sentiment towards gold. Even though gold's attributes have not changed, we have seen a change in attitude from investors towards gold. From the official sector through to retail investors, there has been a structural shift in the demand side.”
吉姆·罗杰斯,新加坡罗杰斯控股公司主席罗杰斯认为金价还未到达顶峰,将来名义价格将从每盎司1100美元升值2000美元。他说:“仅考虑过去的最高点1980年,调整通货膨胀,现在的金价应该超过2000美元每盎司了,因此将来几十年的某个时候,黄金一定能到达这一价格水平。”
Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers HoldingsMr Rogers argues that gold hasn't begun to peak, adding that it will climb from a nominal record near $1,100 an ounce to $2,000 an ounce in the future. He said: “Just to get back to the old high back in 1980, adjusted for inflation, the price would need to be over $2,000 now. So we’ll certainly get there some time in the next decade.”
伦敦金银市场协会伦敦金银市场协会年会期间,对370名代表对黄金价格预测的投票调查显示,未来12个月内,金价会达到1181每盎司。参加调查的包括368名交易商,分析师,矿主及中央银行家。
London Bullion Market AssociationA poll of about 370 delegates at the London Bullion Market Association's annual conference predicted that gold would be at $1,181 in 12 months' time. The poll covered 368 traders, analysts, miners and central bankers.
埃里森·楚(Ellison Chu),标准银行亚洲有限公司这位标准银行驻香港贵金属部经理预测,基于对黄金的强劲需求,尤其是亚洲的需求,金价将继续保持在1000元每盎司以上。
Ellison Chu, Standard Bank AsiaThe Hong Kong based manager of precious metals at the bank expects the price of gold to maintain four-figure levels given the strong demand, particularly from Asia.
印度的购买(印度中央银行最近从IMF购买了200吨黄金)对投资者有一个心理影响。他们认为,其他中央银行也将购买黄金作为储备。金价可能会紧紧抓住高价位。马上便是圣诞节和中国春节的季节性需求旺盛时期。
"India's purchase [India’s central bank recently bought 200 tonnes of gold] had a psychological impact on investors. They think other central banks will also buy gold for their reserves. Gold will probably hang on to these high levels. We're seeing good seasonal demand ahead of Christmas and the Chinese New Year."
努里尔·鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini),纽约大学斯特恩商学院经济学教授在硬资产投资(Hard Assets Investor)的采访中,鲁比尼说,只有两种假定下金价才会大幅上升:通货膨胀和世界末日(Armageddon)。
Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of BusinessIn an interview with Hard Assets Investor, Mr Roubini said there were only two scenarios that would see gold go much higher: inflation and Armageddon.
“现在,没有出现世界末日,也没有出现通货膨胀,因此金价只会轻微上调。而那些蛊惑自己金价将升至每盎司1500美元或2000美元的人,只是胡说八道。基本原则没有改变,那些人只在算计自己的账本。”
“We don’t have Armageddon, we don’t have inflation, so gold can maybe go slightly higher. But those people who delude themselves that gold can go to $1,500 or $2,000 are just talking nonsense. The fundamentals are not justified, and those people are just talking their books.”
大卫·莱文施泰因(David Levenstein),投资顾问大卫·莱文施泰因,有29年期货,股票,外汇及黄金投资经验。他在Mineweb撰文说,由于美元的黯淡前景,金价可能只在逼近每盎司1300美元。
David Levenstein, investment adviserWriting on Mineweb, David Levenstein, a veteran of 29 years in futures, equities, forex and bullion, said gold appeared to be on course for a shift to $1,300 because of the gloomy outlook for the dollar.
“坦白地说,我看不到任何消息能对美元价值产生突然奇迹般的效果,我的经验告诉我,判断未来价格是一件困难的事情,所有经验都趋向于显示,黄金的价格将会更高。”
"Frankly, I cannot see any bit of news that may suddenly appear that could have a miraculously powerful effect on the value of the dollar," he wrote. "While my experience has taught me that it is very difficult to predict future prices, all the empirical evidence tends to indicate that we can expect much higher prices for gold."
标签:黄金
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2009-11-13 15:23 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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