V1(BY: yangzidana ) 题目是一篇DEPARTMENT STORE经理的文章。说因为LOCAL CLOTHING STORE的数据显示其利润在8.1-10.31期间平均呈下降状态，而相反，售卖product for home的店的报告则是利润在同一时期平均上升。因此说顾客们更愿意消费在家庭用品而非衣服上。所以为了利用好这一趋势，建议扩大home furnishing home product的departments的规模并且缩小clothing部门的规模。
The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store:
“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
1. False causal relationship:不能有家庭用品销售量上升就说顾客在选择.....
2. Either or choice:服装销售下降，家用销售增加就说....，太绝对，也有可能其他的都增加，就衣服销售减少了
3. All thing are equal：过去三个月的销量不能代表未来
4. Gratuitous assumption：因为这三个月的销售量就假设这个趋势，不对。假设缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部可以形成优势也不对。
Based upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in profits for stores that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing stores, the business manager of a department store concludes that consumers are choosing to purchase home furnishings rather than clothing. On the basis of this conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction in the size of the clothing department and an increase in the size of the home-furnishings department. This recommendation is problematic in two critical respects.
In the first place, the author’s conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample. Data gathered from a three-month period is insufficient to establish the conclusion drawn from it. It is quite possible that the three-month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not representative of entire year’s sales. If so, reducing the size of the clothing departments and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a costly mistake.
In the second place, the data collected during the three month period may be biased. The fact that the data reflects sales in local stores is cause for concern. It is possible that the sales trend in a particular location is not representative of sales in other regions. For example, sales of clothing in Florida during the winter months are likely to be quite different from sales of clothing in Alaska during the same period.
In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. A more convincing argument must provide additional sales data, collected at different periods of the year and at different locations, that substantiates the trend in question.