V1(BY: zydkp): 附近一个音像店通过电台广告增加了销售额和利润，门可罗雀，从而其老板们都很富有，都可以退休了，因此一个衣服店也想用电台广告增加销量
The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo’s Clothing to the staff:
“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
由于Disc Depot，相邻街区的音像店从去年开始新的电台广告，它的业务显著增长，从商店人流量的大量增加就可以看出。当Disc Depot的老板显然已经足够富有可以退休时，Carlo's服饰的利润3年来一直停滞不变。为了促进我们的销售和利润，我们应该像DiscDepot一样从报纸广告转向经常的电台广告.
1.All thing are equal：remain unchanged 过去三年利润不变不代表未来不会增加
3. Gratuitous assumption：不能根据人流量大就假设销售量增加
4.False causal relationship：没有说电台广告与业务量增长有必然因果关系
5.Either or choice:可以宣传的不是只有电台广告
In this argument, the author reaches the conclusion that Carlo’s Clothing should switch to frequent radio advertisements from newspaper advertising just like what Disc Depot did. Reasons are offered in support of this recommendation. First, the large increase in foot traffic into Disc Depot shows its dramatically increasing profits. Second, the dramatically increasing profits of Disc Depot are due to the new radio advertising campaign. In addition, frequent radio advertisements can boost the sales and profits of Carlo’s Clothing. At first glance, the argument appears to be somewhat convincing, but further inspection reveals that it contains several critical logic flaws and the line of reasoning is invalid.
To justify what he claims, the author first assumes that the large increase in foot traffic into the music store proves its dramatically growing business. But this is false assumption unless other possible explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps the large crowd simply came to listen to the music but did not tend to buy any CDs in the store.
Secondly, in order to strengthen the argument, the author points out that the dramatically growing business of Disc Depot was due to their new radio advertising campaign. However, there are several reasons why this might not be true. In fact, the growing business of Disc Depot can be result from many reasons other than the new radio advertising. For example, the music store introduced new management style or applied better sales method.
Finally, even though supposing the new radio advertising campaign is responsible for the dramatically growing business of Disc Depot, the same strategy may not work well on Disc Depot. Because the argument rests on the assumption that Clothing store is similar to music store is so weak that the success of one kind of store may not ensure the success in other kinds of stores. If it does not suit other stores, the campaign will not work.
In conclusion, this argument is not compelling as it stands. Accordingly, it fails to prove the conclusion that Carlo’s Clothing should switch to frequent radio advertisements from newspaper advertising since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. To make this claim more reliable, the author would have to provide evidence that the dramatically growing business of Disc Depot was direct result from their new radio advertising campaign which is also applicable to the clothing shop. Further, only with more concrete evidence could this argument become more thorough and better evaluated.