V1(BY: 为G拼了) 一店铺在增加了一项服务后(具体啥忘记了)，今年的利润增加了20%，于是就得出结论顾客主要看中the convenience afforded by the one-stop shop,于是打算增设clothing department，并且还打算继续增设部门和服务以此获得更高的利润
The following is part of a business plan created by the management of the Megamart grocery store.
“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.”
2. False analogy：药剂销售与汽车配件、维修店类比
3. All things are equal : 今年的销售增加纵向错误类比今后两年销量会增加
4. Gratuitous assumption：无端假设销售额增加是因为顾客关注一次性购物便利
The management of the Megamart grocery store concludes that adding new departments and services is the surest way to increase profits over the next couple of years. They are led to this conclusion because of a 20 percent increase in total sates, realized after the addition of a pharmacy section to the grocery store. On the basis of this experience, they concluded that the convenience of one-stop shopping was the main concern of their customers. The management’s argument is faulty in several respects.
In the first place, the management assumes that the increase in total sales was due to the addition of the pharmacy section. However, the only evidence offered to support this conclusion is the fact that the addition of the pharmacy preceded the increase in sales. But the mere fact that the pharmacy section was added before the increase occurred is insufficient grounds to conclude that it was responsible for the increase. Many other factors could bring about this same result. Lacking a detailed analysis of the source of the sales increase, it would be sheer folly to attribute the increase to the addition of the pharmacy section.
In the second place, even if it were the case that the increase in total sales was due to the addition of the pharmacy section, this fact alone is insufficient to support the claim that adding additional departments will increase sales even further. It is quite possible that the addition of the pharmacy section increased sales simply because there was no other pharmacy in the vicinity. The additional proposed departments and services, on the other hand, might be well represented in the area and their addition might have no impact whatsoever on the profits of the store. In other words, there may be relevant differences between the pharmacy section and the additional proposed sections that preclude them from having a similar effect on the sales of the store.
In conclusion, the management’s argument is not well-reasoned. To strengthen the conclusion, the management must provide additional evidence linking the addition of the pharmacy section to the increase in total sales. It must also show that there are no exceptional reasons for the sales increase due to the pharmacy section that would not apply to the other proposed additions.
V1(BY: 261727223) An e-mail from the owner of Food For XXXXXX,(同位语介绍公司),to the manager.
先说一个specialized in cooking的bookstore的profits 很steady since they…………(他们的一个措施，感觉不是重心)。但是，owner说major bookstore & internet bookstore有个strategy很给力，就是一个定价策略：给best-seller打折，吸引更多顾客，提高total sales，最后提高profits。然后owner开始YY说，如果我们能学习这个策略我们能卖更多的书，能赚更多的profits。
V1. 说的是一个当地的书店，提供一些什么COOKING之类的服务，取得了成功。 过去几年来利润都一直稳定着。所以这个书店提出来要学习INTERNET BOOKSTORE 或者 chain bookstores 那样零利润吸引顾客。这个LOCAL 书店应该要discount，同时需要取消掉原来的cooking来弥补这个discount造成的损失
V3. 是说一个什么卖书的以前卖食谱，后来又搞了个什么wine and cheese bar，说有稳定的profit，然后就想引进畅销书和网上售书什么什么的，后面没很读懂，意思是说可以赚更多钱吧;
V4. 说的是一个专卖cookbook的书店近几年的profit都很稳定，所以想continue grow.于是，想借助Internet bookseller的strategy去发展。要deeply discount best-sell books，还要减少什么的discount(忘了，确切的说是我不认识那个词……汗)还要取消免费的什么东西。
V5. 一个manager 有个cooking book公司在食谱书店通过找当地名厨在现场做demonstration 和在附近的公司休息室也不食堂的发放免费cheese什么的提高了profit。所以他们认为雇佣那些特有经验的优秀销售在卖其他书的书店和网络营销也将会提高收益。