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美国经济开始慢慢复苏

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小编摘要:美国消费者信心到达12个月来的最高点,失业率已下降到危机前水平,希腊债务危机至少目前已消失了。但是,尽管股价上涨让人们相信复苏的持续性,但高油价仍然削弱消费者的开支能力。

 美国经济开始慢慢复苏


American consumer confidence is at a 12-month high. Unemployment has fallen to pre-crisis levels and Greek debt is fading into the background - at least for now. But even as rising stock prices fuel confidence in a sustainable recovery - higher gasoline prices threaten to crimp consumer spending.

"I think what's driving this is number one: better than appreciated oil demand growth, that's the scene setter, if you will," said Jan Stuart, head of energy research at Credit Suisse.

Higher prices at the pump mean less disposable income - a setback in an economy driven primarily by consumer spending.

Still, after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, economists say a few bumps are to be expected.

"The U.S. economy is naturally a very flexible economy, a very innovative and dynamic economy and you're feeling that," said Uri Dadush, who heads the international economics program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "But the crisis leaves a heavy legacy. A lot of problems and that's why for example, in the housing sector, etc. - you know you're not seeing the recovery that you would expect."
Despite a decline in foreclosures, home prices fell four percent in December.

And a new report suggests more Americans are choosing to rent until home prices stabilize.

But even with some ups and downs for the world's largest economy, Dadush sees reasons for optimism.

"I have seen the ups and the downs, and the catastrophes and the euphoria and sentiment does change very quickly," he said. "I would focus much more attention on the slowly moving variables, the unemployment rate, the indebtedness of households to judge whether we are moving in the right direction."

The National Association for Business Economics believes the U.S. economy is moving in the right direction. The association's latest survey points to an improving job market and economic growth of about 2.5 percent in 2012.


美国消费者信心到达12个月来的最高点,失业率已下降到危机前水平,希腊债务危机至少目前已消失了。但是,尽管股价上涨让人们相信复苏的持续性,但高油价仍然削弱消费者的开支能力。

高油价意味着可支配收入的减少,经济后退主要是消费者开支下降推动的。

然后,这次大萧条之后最严重的金融危机过后,经济学家称还会有几次反弹。

Uri Dadush是卡内基国家和平基金会国际经济项目负责人,他说,“美国经济本质上很灵活,很富新意活力很强。但这次危机留下很多问题,这就是为什么在房产行业看不到复苏的迹象。”

回赎权的取消数量有所减少,但去年十二月份,房价下跌了4%。

有新报告称,在房价稳定之前,很多美国人选择租房。

尽管美国这一世界最大的经济体仍在起起伏伏,Dadush说还是有理由保持乐观的。

“我看到了起起落落,灾难、愉快和情绪瞬息万变,不过我会更关注那些变化慢的因素,比如通过失业率和家庭债务来判断经济是否在复苏。”

全国经济商业协会人为美国经济正在复苏,协会的最新调查指出,就业市场正在好转,同时2012年经济将增长约2.5%。

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2012-03-02 13:13 编辑:pliny
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