所属:其他考试 作者:cwf1986 阅读:1692 次 评论:0 条 [我要评论]  [+我要收藏]



  原题:No. 104 The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center.

  “After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.”


   忽略他因。

   错误类比。

   收入和支出

   causal oversimplification

   a benefit-cost analysis should be given

   Whether the proposed recreational facilities are popular among the people of this area is unknown.


  Because Take Heart Fitness Center experienced a 12 percent increase in member usage as a result of opening a new swimming pool last summer, the author recommends the addition of new recreational facilities in subsequent years as a means of increasing membership in Take Heart. The author’s recommendation is problematic for several reasons.

  First, and foremost, the author assumes that an increase in member usage portends an increase in membership. This assumption may hold true in some cases. However, it is unlikely to hold true in the case at hand, because it is reasonable to expect that members would visit the fitness center to inspect and try out the new swimming pool. This would account for the increase in usage. However, since the author provides no evidence that this new rate of usage was sustained, the abrupt increase in usage provides little evidence that the addition of facilities such as the pool will attract new members.

  Second, the author assumes that the addition of the swimming pool was responsible for the increase in member usage. However, the only evidence for this claim is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. While temporal precedence is one of the conditions required to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a sufficient condition. Consequently, it is possible that the addition of the pool was unrelated to the increase in usage in the manner required by the author’s argument.

  Finally, the author has provided no evidence to support the contention that Take Heart will be the only center in the area to offer a wide range of activities to its members and thus have a competitive advantage in the fitness market.

  In conclusion, the author’s belief that adding additional recreational facilities will increase Take Heart’s membership is ill-founded. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence that member usage is reliable indicator of new membership. Additionally, it would be necessary to show that the cause of the increase in usage was the opening of the new pool.

  24. 2次

  V1 cell phone的原材料贵金属什么的价格很不稳定,早点购入大量的material可以lock the cost然后继续HIGH PROFITS

  V2 “cell phone manufacturing requires a large variety of precious and expensive metasl, such like gold, silver and copper. 在过去的数年中,我们公司已经进行过对此类贵重金属的购买, and we found the price of these metals sometimes changed dramatically. 而且我们forcast a growth of our cell phone division and high-volume pruchasing looking strong. 如果我们购买(并且库存?) a large amount fo these metals, 就可以lock our costs. By doing so, we can lock in our cost savings and guarantee a high-level profit.”


  V1因为cell phone的原材料金属很贵,且金属的价格此起彼伏dramatically 为了防止其对什么的影响和保护产品的生产线 所以stockholder决定lock in the cost for those materials(没搞懂lock in有啥特别意思),这样可以把lock in 的savings用作以后来保证产业的高利润(收入)。

  V2有个report说手机生产过程需要一些昂贵的稀有金属,类似于金银神马的,厂商说过去十年中他们对金属的需求一直扩大,在此过程中见证了金属价格的大幅的上升与下跌。由于他们预测此后他们对手机的生产仍会扩大对金属的需求将会一直很大,厂商认为此时买下现在生产线上需要的large quantity of metals是明智的,将会lock成本,并且guarantee a high profit in the future.






  一个town的什么三个businesses获得很大利润,然后说C应该也投资另三个什么businesses。 而且作者建议推出一个special program: 选了其中两个businesses的顾客可以在第三个中获得discount

  原题:No. 121 The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm.

  “Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o’-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return.”

  Capital Idea投资公司的商业计划:

  在ParkHill区的Thespian剧院,Pizzazz比萨,Niblick高尔夫俱乐部在过去2年都有业务增长。因此Capital Idea应该投资Poxy剧场,Slic-o比萨和Divot高尔夫俱乐部这3家新的Irongate区的企业。为使他们达到条件,我们应该要求他们参加特殊的项目:任何顾客在其中两家消费将在第三家得到折扣。通过刺激顾客在所有3家店消费,我们将增进每一家的利润,从而使我们的回报最大化。


   过去的营业额增长不代表在另一个district开三家店生意能够好,区域之间可能存在差异,错误的类比

   推理不充分,这种折扣政策能保证三家店的每一家都盈利么?会不会某一家店承担了过多的折扣?

   The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.

   Therefore the proposal of investment in the Irongate district is groundless. No investment should be made until other factors have been considered and the benefit-cost analysis has been made.

   The program suggested by the author is reckless or even ridiculous. The possible result can be the opposite of the author's imagination because the consumers have interest of only one or two of the three stores.

   The business increases occurred in the past two years. No one can guarantee the future profit.

   The three new companies are not necessarily analogous to those profitable ones.

   The condition that is required is absurd. There is no causal relationship between the condition and the collective profit.

2012-02-06 14:06 编辑:cwf1986
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