原题：The following appeared as part of an article in a computer magazine.
”A year ago Apex Manufacturing bought its managers computers for their homes and paid for telephone connections so that the managers could access Apex computers and data files from home after normal business hours. Since last year, productivity at Apex has increased by 15 percent. Other companies can learn from the success at Apex: given home computers and access to company resources, employees will work additional hours at home and thereby increase company profits.”
Notice that only managers were bought computers by Apex, whose productivity indeed rose 15 percent as the result. It is different from the assumption made in the article, which stated that if all employees were brought computers, they would work extra hours at home. Managers ≠ all employees
A. This argument suffers from a fallacy of post hoc, ergo propter hoc.
B. Next, the author fails to provide any evidence that installing home computers for managers really led to the increase of Apex’s productivity.
home access 和increase productivity因果关系错误
In this article the author attributes Apex Manufacturing’s 15 percent increase in productivity over the past year to its decision to equip its manager with computers and paid telephone connections for their homes so that they would access company computers and files from home after normal business hours. On the basis of Apex’s experience the author recommends that other companies follow Apex’s example and provide computers and access to company resources to their employees. The author believes that such a policy would increase productivity and profits for other companies, just as it did for Apex. The author’s line of reasoning is questionable for several reasons.
First, the author assumes that Apex’s increase in productivity is due to its equipping its managers with home computers and access to company resources. However, the only evidence offered in support of this claim is the fact that Apex’s increase in productivity occurred after the home computers and after-hours access was provided. Unfortunately, this evidence is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. While temporal precedence is one of the conditions required to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a sufficient condition. Consequently, it is possible that Apex’s increase in productivity is not related to its decision to equip its managers with computers and after-hours access in the fashion required by the author’s argument.
Second, the author assumes that Apex and other companies are sufficiently similar to warrant a conclusion based on an analogy between them. Even if we accept the view that Apex’s increase in productivity was brought about by its policy of enabling its managers to work from home, differences between Apex and other companies could nullify this result. Lacking detailed information about Apex and the other companies in question it is difficult to assess the author’s conclusion.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide additional evidence for the claim that Apex’s decision to provide its managers with home computers and access to company resources was responsible for its increase in productivity. Furthermore, it would be necessary to show that Apex and other companies are sufficiently similar to justify the analogy between them.
NOVA这个学校换了很多新的computer instruction，当年的dropout rate 立刻decreaced。好像是建议学校应该多花钱换新的computer instruction..balabala....整体大概这样意思
原题：No. 14 The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial:
“Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year’s graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers, and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum.”
没有排除他因。很可能是学校出台的policy要求老师上课认真，学生更加勤奋导致的。同时发生不能说明因果。stricter discipline applied last year.
还有其他的比如加入新课引起学生的兴趣等等。counseling and training programs
interactive interact instruction logical logically covincing ignore decline atttibute
dropout中途退学(学生)usage sufficient fund budget compromise comprise impressive portion proportional ultimately ultimate strengthen graduate graduation applicable apply applicant application affordable afford district
Sample essay 1:
The argument that the school board should buy more computers and adopt interactive computer instruction is not entirely logically convincing, since it ignores certain crucial assumptions.
First, the argument assumes that the decline of school dropout and the achievements of last year’s graduates’ results from the adoption of interactive computer instruction. However, there are several reasons why this might not be true. For example, achievements could have been made in other subjects than the ones with interactive computer instruction. Or last years’ graduates might not have been given the interactive computer instruction. Or the decline of the rate of dropout could be attributed to stricter discipline applied last year.
Second, even supposing the Nova High School’s decline of the dropout and last year’s graduates’ achievements benefit directly from the usage of interactive computer instruction, the success of the instruction in one school may not ensure the success in other schools. If it does not suit other schools, the instruction will not work.
Finally, even if the decline of the rate of dropout and the achievements of the last year’s graduates’ are the direct results of the interactive computer instruction, we still do not know whether the school can afford to apply the instruction on all the subjects or to all the students. If the school does not have sufficient fund and has to cut budgets on other projects such as the library, the quality of the school’s education will also compromise.
Thus, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion that the dropout rate declined and last year’s graduates made impressive achievements does little to prove the conclusion that other schools should use a greater portion of their funds to apply the instruction since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been strengthened by making it clear that the decline of the dropout rate and the achievements of the graduates are the direct results of interactive computer instruction, that the instruction is also applicable to other schools in the district, and that the instruction is affordable to all the schools in the district.
Sample essay 2:
The editorial recommends that the school board of Nova High spend a greater portion of available funds on the purchase of additional computers and adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum. Two reasons are offered in support of this recommendation. First, the introduction of interactive computer instruction in three academic subjects was immediately followed by a decline in the school dropout rate. Second, last year’s graduates experienced impressive achievements in college. This argument is unconvincing for two reasons.
To begin with, this argument is a classic instance of “after this, therefore because of this” reasoning. The mere fact that the introduction of interactive computer instruction preceded the impressive performance of recent graduates and the decline in the dropout rate is insufficient to conclude that it was the cause of these events. Many other factors could bring about these same results. For example, the school may have implemented counseling and training programs that better meet the needs of students who might otherwise leave school to take jobs. In addition, the school may have introduced programs to better prepare students for college.
Secondly, the author assumes that the impressive achievements of last year’s graduates bear some relation to the introduction of interactive computer instruction at Nova High. However, no evidence is offered to support this assumption. Lacking evidence that links the achievements of the recent graduates to the interactive instruction, it is presumptuous to suggest that the computer instruction was in some way responsible for the students’ impressive performance.
In conclusion, the recommendation that Nova High spend a greater portion of available funds on the purchase of additional computers and adopt interactive computer instruction throughout the curriculum is ill-founded. To strengthen this recommendation the author would have to demonstrate that the decline in the dropout rate and the impressive performance of recent graduates came about as a result of the use of computer-interactive instruction. All that has been shown so far is a correlation between these events.
原题：No. 9 The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine.
“On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
The absolute value of consumption should be given by the author.
all things are equal
Whether the increase of profit gained by attracting more middle-aged consumers will be offset
by the reduction of profit because of the loss of young consumers.
Sample essay 1:
The argument that department retail sales will increase in the next 10 years and thus department stores should begin to replace products to attract middle-aged consumers is not entirely logically convincing, since it omits certain crucial assumptions
First of all, the argument ignores the absolute amount of retail expenditure of middle-aged and younger consumers devoted to department store products and services. Although younger consumers spend a smaller percentage of their retail expenditure to department store products than do the middle-aged consumers, they might actually spend more in terms of the absolute amount.
Even if middle-aged consumers are spending more than younger ones in department stores, the argument ignores the possibility that the trend may change within the next decade. Younger consumers might prefer to shop in department stores than in other types of stores, and middle-aged consumers might turn to other types of stores, too. This will lead to a higher expenditure of younger consumers in department stores than that of middle-aged consumers.
Besides, the argument never addresses the population difference between middle-aged consumers and younger ones. Suppose there are more younger consumers than the middle-aged ones now, the total population base of younger consumers will be bigger than that of the middle-aged ones if both of them grow at the same rate in the next decade. Thus there will be a bigger younger consumer base.
Based on the reasons I listed above, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion does little to prove the conclusion since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been more convincing by making it clear that the absolute population of middle-aged consumers are higher than that of the younger consumers and the number will continue to grow in the next decade, and that the middle-aged consumers will continue to spend more money in department stores than younger consumers do in the next decade.
Sample essay 2:
The argument that retailers should replace some of the products intended to attract the younger consumers with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumers is not entirely logically convincing, since it ignores certain crucial assumptions.
First, the argument omits the assumption that the business volumes of both the middle-aged consumers and the younger consumers are the same. If the business volume of the middle-aged consumers’ 39% is smaller than that of the younger consumers’ 25%, the retail sales will not increase during the next decade.
Second, even if the business volumes of both the middle-aged consumers and the younger consumers were the same in the last decade, the increase of the middle-aged people in the next decade is not the same as the increase of the retail expenditure, for the retail trade depends more on such factors as the economic circumstances, people’s consuming desire.
Finally, the argument never assumes the increase of the younger consumers within the next decade. If the younger consumers increase at the same rate and spend the same amount of money on the goods and services of department stores, the retailers should never ignore them.
Thus the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion that the growing number of middle-aged people within the next decade does little to prove the conclusion—that department stores should begin to replace some of their products to attract the middle-aged consumers since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been strengthened by making it clear that the business volumes of both types of consumers are the same and comparable, that the increase of a certain type of consumers are correlated with the increase of the retail sales, and that the growth rate of the younger consumers are the same as that of the middle-aged consumers.
Sample essay 3:
Based on an expected increase in the number of middle-aged people during the next decade, the author predicts that retail sales at department stores will increase significantly over the next ten years. To bolster this prediction, the author cites statistics showing that middle-aged people devote a much higher percentage of their retail expenditure to department-store services and products than younger consumers do. Since the number of middle-aged consumers is on the rise and since they spend more than younger people on department-store goods and services, the author further recommends that department stores begin to adjust their inventories to capitalize on this trend. Specifically, it is recommended that department stores increase their inventory of products aimed at middle-aged consumers and decrease their inventory of products aimed at younger consumers. This argument is problematic for two reasons.
First, an increase in the number of middle-aged people does not necessarily portend an overall increase in department-store sales. It does so only on the assumption that other population groups will remain relatively constant. For example, if the expected increase in the number of middle-aged people is offset by an equally significant decrease in the number of younger people, there will be little or no net gain in sales.
Second, in recommending that department stores replace products intended to attract younger consumers with products more suitable to middle-aged consumers, the author assumes that the number of younger consumers will not also increase. Since a sizable increase in the population of younger consumers could conceivably offset the difference in the retail expenditure patterns of younger and middle-aged consumers, it would be unwise to make the recommended inventory adjustment lacking evidence to support this assumption.
In conclusion, this argument is unacceptable. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence that the population of younger consumers will remain relatively constant over the next decade
Massachusetts Institute of Technology GRE: 1353 GMAT:720 Stanford University (CA) GRE: 1354 GMAT:720 University of California–Berkeley GRE: 1353 GMAT:707 Georgia In
GMAT考试是美国管理专业招收研究生委员会主办和负责指导的考试, 其英文全称是Graduate Management Admission Test。GMAT考试的科目包括会计学、经济学、管理学、普通管理、生产管理、行政管理、