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联合国粮食及农业组织表示2012年食品价格走势不确定

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小编摘要:在十二月国际食品价格下降很快。然而,联合国一家机构表示整体价格还是高于2011年。联合国粮食及农业组织表示2012年价格走势仍然不确定。

联合国粮食及农业组织表示2012年食品价格走势不确定

International food prices fell sharply in December. However, a U.N. agency says overall prices remained high in 2011. The Food and Agriculture Organization also says that price trends are uncertain for 2012.
FAO Senior Grains Economist Abdolreza Abbassian said the Food Price Index fell nearly two and a half percent from November.
"Well, December was simply a continuation of the downward trend that we've been witnessing for the last, let's say, 5 or 6 months, which was in reaction to production numbers being revised up quite, I would say, significantly, the recession fears and a slowdown in the global economy and the strengthening of the dollar. So, I think those three factors weighed quite heavily on international prices," he said.
The FAO Food Price Index measures 55 commodities on the international market. Abbassian said the decline in prices last month should not simply be taken at face value.
"If you're a consumer or an importing country, obviously, any decline in price is a welcome development. But we need to put this in perspective. Put this in perspective means that a lot of the poorer countries or developing countries would have to pay for the food imports with (the) U.S. dollar. And (the) U.S. dollar had appreciated quite a bit depending of course against which currency and which country. But in general terms it's been strengthening. And this to some extent could unfortunately offset any gain received from paying lower prices," he said.
Declines were led by lower prices for cereals, sugar and oils due, in part, to bumper crops in 2011. But Abbassian said those declines were generally modest, despite December's figures. Average prices for the year were actually higher than 2008 during the food crisis – and the highest since 1990 when the Food Price Index began, once adjusted for inflation.
"Any decline," he said, "is good from that perspective. One has to be a bit careful about celebrating it. You know it's not going to have such a significant impact unfortunately in terms of helping these countries to cope with the high food prices, especially at the time when (there are) a lot of uncertainties in the fuel market. A lot of these countries also are also big importers of energy and fuels."
So what do 2011 prices mean for 2012? The FAO economist won't make any official prediction.
"I wish I could. It is one thing we have learned (the) hard way is that especially with the food index, which has 55 commodities inside it, and given especially what's happening and what we're hearing every day about the world market and the different uncertainties, it is really next to impossible," he said.
He says his personal view is that there will not be significant declines in food prices this year. He says more will be known in March and April when food production forecasts are made. Abbassian does say, though, that he does not foresee a repeat of the turmoil of the 2007/2008 food crisis.
在十二月国际食品价格下降很快。然而,联合国一家机构表示整体价格还是高于2011年。联合国粮食及农业组织表示2012年价格走势仍然不确定。
联合国粮食及农业组织的高级谷物经济学家阿布多拉•阿巴赛安表示食品价格指数从11月以来已经下跌近2.5个百分点。
“嗯,12月延续我们过去已经目睹过的下降趋势,让我们以5月或6月为例,这是针对产品数目修订后的反应,我想说,重要的是经济衰退的恐惧,全球经济放缓及美元的加强。所以我认为这三个因素对国际价格影响很大。”他说道。
联合国粮食及农业组织食品价格指数对国际市场的55种商品采取了措施。阿巴赛安表示上个月的价格下跌不应该简单的被票面价值所蒙蔽。
“如果你是一个消费者或进口国,明显会欢迎任何价格的下降。但我们需要对这件事做出正确的判断。这意味着很多贫穷国家或者发展中国家将不得不以美元的方式支付进口食品。而美元当然要取决于哪种货币及哪个国家。但总的来说这是进一步加强美元。这在某种程度上不幸的抵消了任何能从支付更低的价格获得的利润。”他解释道。
2011年的价格下降主要由谷物、糖,油部及部分丰产作物领军。但阿巴赛安表示不要指望去年12月份的数据,那些只是适度下降。今年的平均价格要高于2008年粮食危机,是自最高的1990年以来食品价格指数开始,经通货膨胀调整后的一次。
“任何下降,”他说道,“都是从好的意图出发。而人们应当在庆祝的时候谨慎一些。如果帮助这些国家应对高昂的食品价格,尤其是在燃油市场有很多的不确定性的前提下,你知道是不会有这样不幸的重大影响。很多国家也进口能量和燃料。”
那么2011年的价格对于2012年意味着什么? 联合国粮食及农业组织的经济学家不会做出任何官方预测。
“我希望我能。我们以艰难的方式了解到的是食品价格指数里面有55种商品,并且假定发生什么,尤其是我们听到关于世界市场每天不同的不确定性,谁也说不好。”他说道。
他表示他的个人看法是今年食品价格不会有重大下降。他说在3月和4月当食物生产预测时才能知道。阿巴赛安并没有说,虽然如此,但是他没有预见2007/2008的粮食危机的动荡重复。

标签:voa standard
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2012-01-13 21:55 编辑:pliny
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