13. 上个月寂静里的health center 游泳池新开的那道题。。看到这个我还以为没换苦呢。。。
题库原题: The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center.
“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.”
范文：Because Take Heart Fitness Center experienced a 12 percent increase in member usage as a result of opening a new swimming pool last summer, the author recommends the addition of new recreational facilities in subsequent years as a means of increasing membership in Take Heart. The author’s recommendation is problematic for several reasons.
First, and foremost, the author assumes that an increase in member usage portends an increase in membership. This assumption may hold true in some cases. However, it is unlikely to hold true in the case at hand, because it is reasonable to expect that members would visit the fitness center to inspect and try out the new swimming pool. This would account for the increase in usage. However, since the author provides no evidence that this new rate of usage was sustained, the abrupt increase in usage provides little evidence that the addition of facilities such as the pool will attract new members.
Second, the author assumes that the addition of the swimming pool was responsible for the increase in member usage. However, the only evidence for this claim is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. While temporal precedence is one of the conditions required to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a sufficient condition. Consequently, it is possible that the addition of the pool was unrelated to the increase in usage in the manner required by the author’s argument.
Finally, the author has provided no evidence to support the contention that Take Heart will be the only center in the area to offer a wide range of activities to its members and thus have a competitive advantage in the fitness market.
In conclusion, the author’s belief that adding additional recreational facilities will increase Take Heart’s membership is ill-founded. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence that member usage is reliable indicator of new membership. Additionally, it would be necessary to show that the cause of the increase in usage was the opening of the new pool.
V2就是两年前那个经理在一个地方开披萨店，revenue上升很快，所以决定在nearby cities and town 开三个分店，他认为会带来很大盈利
AA：在P district有三家店（theater, pizza, golf club）在过去的两年business都increase了，所以I district也想开这三家店，并且I district决定：如果有去其中两家店的顾客，那么去第三家店可以打折，这样 I district 觉得肯定可以contribute to profit and maximize revenue.
V2:一家capital investment company的recommendation：在Park Hill District 开的三家店XX theater，XX playhouse（貌似，反正不重要）和XX Golf Club，两年前盈利increase了，所以作者建议在另一个district也投资新开三家经营范围类似（但品牌不同）的店；另外，采用a program：上前两家消费的顾客在第三家永久享受折扣——那么这三家店每一家都能盈利并且投资公司能赚到钱。
The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm.
“Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o’-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return.”
1， The author commits a fallcy of false analogy.
2， Therefore the proposal of investment in the Irongate district is groundless. No investment should be made until other factors have been considered and the benefit-cost analysis has been made.
3， The programme suggested by the author is reckless or even ridiculous. The possible result can be the opposite of the author's imagination because the consumers have interest of only one or two of the three stores.
1， The business increases occured in the past two years. No one can guarantee the future profit.
2， The three new companies are not necessarily analogous to those profitable ones.
The condition that is required is absurd. There is no causal relatioship between the condition and the collective profit.
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GMAT考试是美国管理专业招收研究生委员会主办和负责指导的考试, 其英文全称是Graduate Management Admission Test。GMAT考试的科目包括会计学、经济学、管理学、普通管理、生产管理、行政管理、