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中国影子银行:下一个次贷危机?

所属:财经报道 来源:cuyoo 阅读:3682 次 评论:0 条 [我要评论]  [+我要收藏]

小编摘要:影子银行,即指有着部分银行功能但不受监管或监管很少的非银行金融机构。有专家分析,中国庞大的影子银行系统可能会带来新一波的次贷危机。

麻烦总是不断,不是吗?就在我们收拾被巨额债务吹大的美国房地产泡沫的烂摊子时,突然之间我们就要开始应对欧洲公共财政危机。我们甚至还没开始着手处理欧债危机,第三波债务危机又将到来,这一次地点换成了中国。
It's always something, isn't it? We're still cleaning up the mess from the massive debt-fueled housing bubble in the US when suddenly we've got to deal with Europe's public finances. We haven't even gotten started on that one when a third debt debacle starts rumbling, in China.
现在我们都知道了中国的常见问题:短时间内依靠债务建造了太多房屋,这加大了经济硬着陆的风险。现在这个故事又增加了一个可能更令人担忧的问题。这一问题和仅仅几年前拖垮全球经济的次贷危机有几分类似。
We all know by now the standard-issue worry about China -- too much debt-fueled building too fast, raising the risk of a hard landing. There's an additional wrinkle to the story, too, one that might be more worrying, as it has a bit of the feel of the subprime mortgage debacle that took down the global economy just a few years ago.
相关报道我们在此说的是中国的“影子银行”体系──规模庞大的表外贷款。巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)的报告说,在中国全部新增贷款中,表外贷款的规模占到了约22%。
We're talking about a large, off-balance-sheet world of debt, China's 'shadow banking' system, which has grown to make up about 22% of all new financing in China, Barclays Capital reports.
巴克莱的报告写道,两类表外贷款可带来更大的风险:一是由向公众销售理财产品的信托公司创造的信托贷款;二是利用银行作为中介的委托贷款。这两类贷款向基础设施、工商项目以及房地产提供资金。
The system is made up partly of bank loans,trust companies that 'sell wealth-management products to the public,' Barclays writes, while also doing some lending on the side, along with similar loans using banks as intermediaries. This lending helps finance infrastructure, industrial and commercial projects and real estate.
“影子银行”体系疏于监管且不甚透明,这加大了外界的担忧,即该体系内部潜伏着什么样的危险?
This corner of the market is poorly regulated and opaque, raising worries about what dangers lurk within.
巴克莱的经济学家周二写道,他们认为尽管中国的“影子银行”体系构成了严重威胁,但目前来看这还不是一个现实威胁:
Barclays economists today write that they don't yet see it as an existential threat -- though it poses serious threats:
我们相信,最坏的情况是,在未来一年我们可能会看到一波赎回潮。虽然很多影子银行资助的项目在财务上可能依然稳健,但即使发生个别违约案例也可能导致大规模赎回,因为个人投资者并不清楚他们所投资的这些项目的财务状况。这也意味着在短期内,信托贷款的数量可能会下降,更多资金可能会以存款的形式回流到银行体系中。
We believe the bottom line is that we might see a wave of redemptions in the coming year. Although many of the shadow banking-funded projects might remain financially sound, even isolated cases of default could lead to widespread redemption, since individual investors have little clear information about the financial positions of the projects in which they invested. This also means that in the short term, the amount of trust lending is likely to decline, while more money may flow back to the banking system in the form of deposits.
“影子银行”体系的发展最终会导致系统性的经济和金融风险吗?在当前这个阶段,我们认为可能性很低。商业银行暴露于信托贷款和委托贷款的直接风险敞口非常有限。由于个人通常不会借入资金投资理财产品,商业银行直接参与信托贷款的程度很低(现在被严格管制的“银信合作产品”除外)。而在委托贷款方面,银行确实充当了中介,但贷款资金却来自于企业指定的存款,而不是银行自有存款。如果此类贷款发生违约,那么个人和企业将遭受重大财务损失,但这不会直接扩大商业银行的不良贷款规模。但是,个人投资者的经济损失可能造成社会政治紧张形势加剧,这最终可能需要监管机构甚至是政府的干预。
Finally, will such developments lead to systemic economic and financial risks? At this stage, it looks very unlikely to us. Both trust and entrusted loans have limited direct-risk exposure to the commercial banks. Banks' direct involvement in trust lending is low (except for the development of 'Bank-trust cooperation products' which is now under strict regulations), as individuals as a rule do not borrow to invest in wealth management products. Banks do act as intermediaries for entrusted loans. But the funds are from designated deposits by corporations, not from the banks' own deposits. If such lending defaulted, then individuals and corporations would incur significant financial losses, but this would not add directly to the nonperforming loans (NPLs) of the commercial banks. Losses by individual investors could cause significant social and political tensions, however, which could eventually require intervention by the regulators or even the government.
但是,商业银行和其它金融机构当然不可能在影子贷款的发展过程中完全做到独善其身。例如,虽然房地产开发商借入的信托贷款发生违约不会导致银行不良贷款的增加,但由于房地产开发商已经向银行借入大量资金(约占银行信贷总量的8%),一旦房地产开发商面临来自投资者的赎回,那么他们偿还银行贷款的能力将受到严重影响。同样,中小企业也借入了大量银行贷款,约占未偿还贷款总量的22%。所以借贷者财务状况转坏的第二轮效应可能会增加银行的不良贷款。
But, of course, the commercial banks and other financial institutions cannot be entirely insulated from these developments. For instance, while defaults of trust loans borrowed by property developers would not cause an increase in NPLs, property developers already borrow quite massively from the banks, accounting for about 8% of total bank credit. If property developers face redemption from investors, then their ability to repay bank loans would be seriously affected. Similarly, SMEs still borrow a large volume of loans with the banks, accounting for about 22% of total outstanding loans. So the second-round effect could increase NPLs at the banks.
因此,随着房价下跌,经济增长放缓,眼下影子银行固有的风险很大。某些项目的违约可能导致大面积赎回。相对而言,信托贷款规模可能还会下降。包括个人和企业在内的投资者可能遭受重大财务损失。信托融资问题恶化所导致的间接结果是金融机构面临的风险可能上升。然而,在短期内,这些都不可能成为系统性金融风险,至少在不久的将来是如此。同时我们在中国不太可能看到资产价格下跌、资产负债表恶化和被迫抛售资产的恶性循环。相比之下,社会和政治的紧张局势可能更令人担忧。当然,如果信托融资恶化的问题始终存在(尤其是如果这还伴随着经济硬着陆以及房价的大幅回调),那么金融业所面临的风险必然转向系统性。
Therefore, the risks inherent in shadow banking are high at the moment, as housing prices decline and economic growth moderates. Defaults of some projects could lead to widespread redemption. It is possible that the size of trust financing might actually fall in relative terms. Investors, including both individuals and corporations, will likely suffer significant financial losses. Risks for financial institutions may also rise, as an indirect result of deterioration of trust financing conditions. In the short term, however, these are unlikely to represent systemic financial risks, at least in the immediate future, as we will probably not see the vicious cycle among falling asset prices, deteriorating balance sheets and forced selling-off in China. By contrast, social and political tensions might be a bigger worry. Of course, if deterioration of trust financing persists, especially if it is accompanied by a steep hard landing of the economy and a deep correction of housing prices, then the financial risks are bound to turn systemic.
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2011-10-28 14:33 编辑:claudiaenglish
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