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The death of Moammar Gadhafi is welcome news for many people, from Libyan rebels to the families of the Pan Am flight 103 victims. For EU leaders struggling to find any glimmers of hope for their economically troubled members, Gadhafi's death may be enough to tamp down at least one fire in the euro zone.
Italy has long been a close trading partner of Libya, and its energy firm ENI (E) is one of the largest producers of oil in Libya. Ahead of the revolution last year, ENI was generating 15% of its total output from Libyan wells. Libyan oil production, around 1.5 million barrels a day before the revolution, fell to essentially zero during the height of the fighting, but now with Gadhafi gone, the Libyan oil industry may rebound fairly quickly.
但石油行业咨询公司Lipow Associates总裁安德鲁·李泊认为:“问题在于,利比亚的石油行业需要多长时间才能恢复到革命前的水平。出口可能需要一年半的时间才能恢复到革命前的水平,但日均石油产量超过50万桶有望于今年年底前就实现,而日产100万桶的水平,则需到2012年上半年才能实现。”此外,自从利比亚前领导人被击毙的消息传出之后,埃尼集团的股票上涨了4%。
"The question is how rapidly can it approach pre-revolution levels," says Andrew Lipow, president of oil industry consulting firm Lipow Associates. "To export what it had pre-revolution levels is probably a year and a half away, but producing over half million barrels a day is probably by the end of this year and a million per day in the first half of 2012." Already shares of ENI have rallied 4% since the Libyan leader's death was announced.
Another plus to the Italian economy is that natural gas exports resumed last Thursday. Italy is a significant natural gas user and historically gets 10% of its needs from Libya. The resumption of Libyan natural gas flows means Italy probably saves some money on costs from other natural gas imports it was having delivered, notes Lipow. More significantly, it likely helps avoid price spikes or gas shortages during the coming winter. It even will probably help at the gas pump: Italy is a significant user of natural gas for automobiles, with as much as 25% of new car sales from cars that use LNG or CNG instead of gasoline.
The big potential benefit for Italy and the rest of Europe: rebuilding Libya. European countries should have the inside track over Chinese and Russian firms on winning business since NATO supported the rebels, adds Lipow. The tab for rebuilding Libya's infrastructure and its energy industry isn't accurately calculated yet, but it will certainly be in the billions of dollars, money that the new Libyan government will have at hand with the release of $37 billion in frozen Libyan assets by the U.S.
卡扎菲之死不是欧盟的救命稻草。但正如奥利雷恩在今天早些时候接受采访时所说,意大利现在“迫切”需要采取措施促进增长,即便效果甚微也聊胜于无。奥利雷恩现任欧盟经济与货币事务委员会(EU Economic and Monetary Affairs)委员。
Gadhafi's death won't save the EU. But considering EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters this morning that Italy "urgently" needs to take steps to bolster growth, every little bit helps
标签:卡扎菲 欧元
2011-10-25 23:29 编辑:kuaileyingyu