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分析:中国增长数据透露通胀隐情

所属:财经报道 来源:cuyoo 阅读:2893 次 评论:0 条 [我要评论]  [+我要收藏]

小编摘要:中国国家统计局前几日刚发布第三季度经济增长数据,GDP增幅已实现连续第四个季度的下降。然而专家们并不感到乐观:中国增长数据中依旧透露着通胀隐情。

 

 

本周中国发布的国内生产总值(GDP)数据背后,隐藏着一个通胀难题。
Buried in China’s gross domestic product data this week was an inflation conundrum, writes Simon Rabinovitch in Beijing.
尽管多数分析师研究这些数据的目的是判断中国经济增长势头保持得如何,但至少有两名分析师看出了公布的价格变动与隐含的价格变动之间的较大差异。
While most analysts pored over the numbers to get a sense of how growth was holding up, at least two spotted a large discrepancy between reported, and implied, price changes.
这个差异不只是一种学术性的好奇。它似乎表明,通胀要比中国政府迄今所公布的更为严重,并可以解释为什么在经济放缓之际北京方面依然如此不愿放宽政策。
The gap is more than just an academic curiosity. It suggests that inflation is stronger than the government has been saying and could explain why Beijing has been so reluctant to loosen policy despite a slowing economy.
最宽泛的通胀指标(也是上述差异的来源)是GDP平减指数,它衡量最终产品(无论其用于消费、投资还是出口)的价格变动。平减指数剔除所有这些价格变动的影响,从而使名义增长率降至实际增长率。
The broadest gauge of inflation, and the source of the discrepancy, is the GDP deflator, which measures the change in prices of end-products, whether used for consumption, investment or export. The deflator reduces the nominal growth rate to the real growth rate by stripping it of the effect of all of these price changes.
法国兴业银行(Société Générale)经济学家姚伟指出,第三季度中国隐含年度GDP平减指数达到10.3%,这是中国自1999年开始发布季度增长数据以来最高的。这个数据远高于同期6.3%的居民消费价格(CPI)。预测咨询机构朗伯德街研究(Lombard Street Research)的经济学家黛安娜?乔伊列娃(Diana Choyleva)发现,在季度环比基础上计算,上述差异则更大:GDP平减指数上涨3.8%,而CPI上涨1.5%。应该指出,在中国,GDP平减指数是一个奇特的数据,它一贯高于CPI数据,主要是因为投资是增长的主要组成部分,而且投资品价格的上涨速度一直比消费品快。
China chalked up an implied annual GDP deflator of 10.3 per cent in the third quarter, the highest since it started publishing quarterly growth figures in 1999, noted Wei Yao, an economist with Société Générale. That was well above the 6.3 per cent rise in the consumer price index during the same three months. Diana Choyleva, an economist with Lombard Street Research, the forecasting consultancy, found that the chasm was even bigger in quarter-on-quarter terms: the GDP deflator was up 3.8 per cent, while CPI was up 1.5 per cent. Now, the GDP deflator is an odd number in China. It consistently comes in higher than the CPI figure, mainly because investment is the dominant component in growth and the prices of investment goods have been rising faster than those for consumer goods.
但是,GDP平减指数与CPI之间的差异通常并不大。现在它扩大到年度基础上4个百分点、年率化基础上将近10个百分点,这个事实说明,中国的价格压力很可能比此前人们认为的还要严重。
But the gap between the deflator and CPI is usually innocuous. The fact that it could have grown to 4 percentage points on an annual basis and almost 10 percentage points on an annualised basis indicates that price pressures have probably been even more serious than previously believed in China.
增长放缓的迹象在一定程度上受到投资者的欢迎。他们希望,这些迹象可为政府放宽货币政策、出台新一轮财政刺激铺平道路。通胀也在开始放缓。但如果平减指数是对的,通胀是在从远高于官方所公布数据的水平放缓,那么政策转变可能不会成为现实,投资者的愿望会落空。姚伟表示:“中国央行很可能知道这个问题,这就是为什么他们还没有发出任何放宽货币政策的信号。这很明智。”
Signs of slower growth have, to an extent, been welcomed by investors hoping that they could pave the way for a relaxation of monetary policy and a launch of fresh fiscal stimulus. Inflation is also beginning to slow. But if the deflator is right and inflation is slowing from a much higher level than officially reported, the policy shift may not materialise, disappointing markets. Ms Yao said: “The PBOC [People’s Bank of China] is probably aware of this problem and that is why they haven’t signalled any monetary policy easing yet, which is very sensible.”
标签:增长 经济 通胀
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2011-10-24 14:20 编辑:claudiaenglish
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