15.AA：一个clothing department store的经理，看到过去8月到10月见，全市所有clothing store平均利润下降而home product store利润上升。认为是消费者的消费习惯发生变化，倾向于买home product而不买clothes。所以认为，他的department store要缩小clothing规模而扩大home product规模来take the advantage。感谢sisiosisi
题库原题：No.72 the following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store:
“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.”
范文：Based upon sales reports over a three-month period that indicate an increase in profits for stores that sell products for the home and a decrease in profits for clothing stores, the business manager of a department store concludes that consumers are choosing to purchase home furnishings rather than clothing. On the basis of this conclusion, the manager recommends a reduction in the size of the clothing department and an increase in the size of the home-furnishings department. This recommendation is problematic in two critical respects.
In the first place, the author’s conclusion that consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing is based upon too small a sample. Data gathered from a three-month period is insufficient to establish the conclusion drawn from it. It is quite possible that the three-month period chosen is idiosyncratic and not representative of entire year’s sales. If so, reducing the size of the clothing departments and enlarging the home-furnishings departments may be a costly mistake.
In the second place, the data collected during the three month period may be biased. The fact that the data reflects sales in local stores is cause for concern. It is possible that the sales trend in a particular location is not representative of sales in other regions. For example, sales of clothing in Florida during the winter months are likely to be quite different from sales of clothing in Alaska during the same period.
In conclusion, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. A more convincing argument must provide additional sales data, collected at different periods of the year and at different locations, that substantiates the trend in question.
16. AA：No.32 “A recent review of the West Cambria volunteer ambulance service revealed a longer average response time to accidents than was reported by a commercial ambulance squad located in East Cambria. In order to provide better patient care for accident victims and to raise revenue for our town by collecting service fees for ambulance use, we should disband our volunteer service and hire a commercial ambulance service.”
3. 此外除非商业班收十分昂贵的服务费用或者有十分多的事故事实这些都是不可能的, 改成商业是不见得就可以给该镇增加很多税收的.所以把这一点作为理由是不正确的.
considerable revenue significant significance consequently consequence ... is insufficient evidence for the claim that this will be the case for ... ambulance-crew proficiency training emergency
1、错误类比 两个城市不一样，很可能因为西和东的不一样，比如，路的情况traffic condition。可能东的车辆更好。服务的态度更好。
3、另外，除非商业可以charge considerable fees 或者 accident rate非常高，否则未必带来可观的revenue。
1.response time 并不是唯一衡量服务质量的标准
In this argument the author concludes that West Cambria can increase revenues and provide better care to accident victims by disbanding the volunteer ambulance service and hiring a commercial one. The author reasons that this change would yield additional revenues because service fees could be imposed for ambulance use. The author also reasons that the city would provide better service to accident victims because a commercial service would respond more quickly to accidents than a volunteer service would. The author’s argument is flawed in two respects.
To begin with, the author’s plan for raising revenue for West Cambria is questionable. Unless the service fees are considerable or the accident rate is extremely high, it is unlikely that significant revenues will be raised by charging a fee for ambulance use. Consequently, revenue generation is not a good reason to disband the volunteer service and hire a commercial service.
Next, the author’s belief that better patient care would be provided by a commercial ambulance service than by a volunteer service is based on insufficient evidence. The fact that the commercial service in East Cambria has a lower average response time than the volunteer service in West Cambria is insufficient evidence for the claim that this will be the case for all commercial services. Moreover, the author’s recommendation depends upon the assumption that response time to an accident is the only factor that influences patient care. Other pertinent factors—such as ambulance-crew proficiency and training, and emergency equipment—are not considered.
In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument the author would have to show that substantial revenue for the town could be raised by charging service fees for ambulance use. Additionally, the author would have to provide more evidence to support the claim that commercial ambulance services provide better patient care than volunteer services.