9. AA一个叫DD的音乐商店用newspaper advertising，然后business grow, 于是乎一个叫cc的衣服店说我们也要用这个方式增加收益
题库原题：No.124 The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo’s Clothing to the staff:
“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.”(124)
由于Disc Depot，相邻街区的音像店从去年开始新的电台广告，它的业务显著增长，从商店人流量的大量增加就可以看出。当Disc Depot的老板显然已经足够富有可以退休时，Carlo's服饰的利润3年来一直停滞不变。为了促进我们的销售和利润，我们应该像DiscDepot一样从报纸广告转向经常的电台广告
1. 错误类比。Depot Disc是music/entertainment industry而Carol’s Clothing是fashion，之类的。
2. 错误结论。increase of foot traffic可以说是有更多的顾客来或者是顾客在店里呆了更长时间，但是不一定是profit增加了。
3. Clothing store的profit少也许有别的原因，而不是marketing不够。
10. S镇公立学校S 什么high school开了200门选修课，街尾一个私立学校只开了80门，结果人家上大学率比公立的高。S校就说要效仿人家，减少选修课量，以让学生focus，也可以减少tax dollar。
No.99 or 101 The following appeared in an editorial from a newspaper serving the town of Saluda.
“The Saluda Consolidated High School offers over 200 different courses from which its students can choose. A much smaller private school down the street offers a basic curriculum of only 80 different courses, but it consistently sends a higher proportion of its graduating seniors on to college than Consolidated does. By eliminating at least half of the courses offered there and focusing on a basic curriculum, we could improve student performance at Consolidated and also save many tax dollars.”
典型的错误类比, 还攻击了错误因果, 和 不见得drop in number of courses will save tax.
1. causal oversimplification
2. false analogy
3. It is likely that the smaller private school is incapable of offering more courses, or else its students can have better performance.
In this editorial the author recommends that Saluda’s Consolidated High School eliminate half of its 200 courses and focus primarily on basic curriculum in order to improve student performance and save tax revenues. The author’s recommendation is problematic for several reasons.
To begin with, the author assumes that the only relevant difference between Consolidated and the private school is the number of courses offered by each. However, other relevant differences between the schools might account for the difference in the proportion of their graduates who go on to college. For example, the private school’s students might be selected from a pool of gifted or exceptional students, or might have to meet rigorous admission standards whereas Consolidated’s students might be drawn from the community at large with little or no qualification for admission.
Next, the author assumes that the proportion of students who go on to college is an overall measure of student performance. While this is a tempting assumption, its truth is by no means obvious. If student excellence is narrowly defined in terms of the student’s ability to gain access to college, this assumption is somewhat reasonable. However, given a broader conception of student excellence that takes into account student’s ability to learn and apply their knowledge to new situations, its is not obvious that college admission is reliable indicator of performance. For example, students in non-academic disciplines could conceivably perform at high levels within these disciplines but nevertheless be unable to meet college admission standards.
Finally, the author assumes that savings in tax revenues will result from the reduced costs of funding the paired-down curriculum. This is not necessarily true. For example, it could turn out that both programs serve the same number of students and require the same number of classrooms and teacher.
In conclusion, the author has not made a convincing case for the recommendation to eliminate courses at Consolidated and focus on a basic curriculum. To strengthen the conclusion the author would have to provide evidence that Consolidated and the private school were sufficiently similar to warrant the analogy between them. Moreover, the relationship between student performance and college admission and the mechanism whereby savings in tax revenues would be accomplished would have to be clarified.