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中国外储飙升加剧通胀担忧

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小编摘要:本来就高居全球首位的中国外汇储备在今年第二季度再度飙升,这加大了通胀压力,并突显北京方面压低本币汇率政策的风险。

中国外储飙升加剧通胀担忧


本来就高居全球首位的中国外汇储备在今年第二季度再度飙升,这加大了通胀压力,并突显北京方面压低本币汇率政策的风险。
China’s foreign exchange reserves, already the world’s biggest, soared again in the second quarter, adding to inflationary pressure and highlighting the risks in Beijing’s policy of holding down the value of its currency.
外汇储备是衡量央行对汇市干预的一个关键指标,因为该数据反映出央行为了稳定人民币汇率而购买了多少外汇。
Reserves are a key indicator of central bank intervention in the currency market because they reflect how much foreign exchange it has purchased in order to stabilise the renminbi.
在首季大增1970亿美元后,中国外汇储备在第二季度又增加了1530亿美元。
After jumping $197bn in the first quarter, reserves were up another $153bn in the second quarter.
大量现金涌入,使中国的通胀难题更加复杂化。6月份,中国消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨6.4%,创下三年高点。尽管许多分析师预计通胀将在今年剩余时间内有所放缓,但外汇储备的累积为快速货币增长的延续奠定了基础,这将限制价格压力放缓的空间。
That influx of cash compounds China’s inflation troubles. Consumer prices were up 6.4 per cent in the year to June, the highest in three years. Although many analysts expect inflation to slow over the remainder of the year, the accumulation of reserves lays the groundwork for a continuation of fast money growth and so will limit the scope for any easing of price pressures.
“中国央行当前的干预累积了越来越多的外汇储备。这种情况是不可持续的,”澳新银行(ANZ Bank)大中华区经济研究总监刘利刚表示。
“The current intervention of the People’s Bank of China has been piling up more and more foreign exchange reserves. This is not sustainable,” said Li-Gang Liu, head of China economics at ANZ Bank.
6月份货币增长温和反弹,表明中国经济仍现金充沛——即便央行已连续几次加息,并采取其它举措限制银行放贷。6月份M2广义货币供应量同比增长15.9%,相比前一个月的15.1%有所提速。
A mild rebound in money growth in June illustrated that China remains flush with cash, even after a succession of interest rate increases and other moves by the central bank to restrict bank lending. The broad M2 measure of money growth was up 15.9 per cent year on year in June, accelerating from 15.1 per cent a month earlier.
上周,中国在8个月来第五次加息。经济学家们正在辩论的是:北京方面今年是否将再次加息以遏制通胀,或是在出现增长放缓迹象之际避免进一步收紧?
China raised interest rates last week for the fifth time in eight months. Economists are now debating whether Beijing will raise rates again this year to damp down inflation or desist from further tightening amid signs of a growth slowdown.
中国总理温家宝周二在主持召开经济形势座谈会、听取地方负责人和企业界人士意见后表示:“(我们)既要把物价涨幅降下来,又不使经济增速出现大的波动。”
Wen Jiabao, the premier, said on Tuesday: “We must slow price increase, but we also must avoid causing big fluctuations in growth,” he said after meeting officials and business leaders.
人民币走强在抑制通胀方面也可发挥关键作用,因为它将降低进口成本,并通过减少外汇储备增量来遏制货币增长。
A stronger renminbi also has a crucial role in easing inflation, as it would reduce the cost of imports and restrain money growth by adding less to foreign exchange reserves.
然而,尽管中国官方一再承诺提高汇率弹性,但今年人民币兑美元仅升值2%,相对于贸易伙伴的一篮子货币实际上还有所贬值。这种低迷的表现,加之对于中国经济放缓的担忧,已促使交易员们缩减对人民币升值的押注。
Nevertheless, despite repeated pledges by China to make its exchange rate more flexible, the renminbi has climbed just 2 per cent against the dollar this year and has actually fallen against a basket of currencies of its trading partners. That sluggish performance and concerns about China’s slowdown have led traders to scale back bets on renminbi appreciation.
中国的外汇储备总量已高达3.197万亿美元,相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的大约50%,比其它任何国家高出几乎三倍。
China’s total foreign exchange reserves stand at $3,197bn, equivalent to about 50 per cent of gross domestic product and almost three times more than any other nation’s.
在第二季度1530亿美元的增量中,近470亿美元来自中国的贸易顺差,其余大多是投资流入和利息收入。
Nearly $47bn of the $153bn second-quarter increase came from China’s trade surplus, with investment inflows and interest earnings accounting for much of the rest.
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2011-07-13 15:38 编辑:典典
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