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2025年:美元不再独霸?

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小编摘要:世界银行(World Bank)预期,美元将在2025年丧失单一统治地位,而欧元与人民币将在一个“多种货币并存”的新型货币体系中确立平起平坐的地位。

2025年:美元不再独霸?

        

世界银行(World Bank)预期,美元将在2025年丧失单一统治地位,而欧元与人民币将在一个“多种货币并存”的新型货币体系中确立平起平坐的地位。
The World Bank expects the US dollar to lose its solitary dominance in the global economy by 2025, as the euro and the renminbi establish themselves on an equal footing in a new “multi-currency” monetary system.
推动这种转变的将是新兴市场经济体日益增强的实力与优势,其中有6个国家——巴西、印度、中国、印尼、俄罗斯和韩国——将在2025年占据全球增长总量一半以上。
The shift will be driven by the increasing power and strength of emerging market economies, with six countries – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Korea – accounting for more than half of global growth in 14 years.
根据世行周二发布的一份报告,从现在起至2025年,新兴经济体将以每年4.7%的速度增长,远远快于同期发达经济体2.3%的年增速。
According to the World Bank report – released on Tuesday – emerging economies will grow at a rate of 4.7 per cent between now and 2025, a much faster pace than advanced economies which are expected to grow by 2.3 per cent over the same time-frame.
“全球增长与投资的天平将向发展中或新兴经济体倾斜,”报告主要作者曼苏尔•戴拉米(Mansoor Dailami)表示。
“The balance of global growth and investment will shift to developing or emerging economies,” said Mansoor Dailami, the lead author of the report.
这种转变意义深远。比如说,戴拉米称,这种实力转移将大力推动投资流入驱动全球增长的国家,跨境并购活动将显著增加,企业界的格局也将发生变化——“你会看到老牌跨国企业将不再占据统治地位”。
The implications are wide-ranging. For instance, Mr Dailami said this power shift would lead to big boosts in investment flows to the countries driving global growth, with a significant increase in cross-border mergers and acquisitions activity, and a changing corporate landscape in which “you’re not going to see the dominance of established multinationals”.
此外,一种不同的国际货币体系将逐渐形成,美元作为世界主要储备货币的地位将告终。
In addition, a different international monetary system will gradually evolve, wiping out the US dollar’s position as the world’s main reserve currency. “The current predominance of the US dollar would end sometime before 2025 and would be replaced by a monetary system in which the dollar, the euro and the renminbi would each serve as full-fledge international currencies,” the report said, highlighting what it considered the “most likely” of three scenarios for the currency markets in 15 years.
“美元当前的主导地位将在2025年前消失,被一种以美元、欧元和人民币为中心的货币体系所取代,这三种货币都将发挥成熟国际货币的作用,”报告指出。报告还介绍了15年后货币市场“最可能”出现的三种情形。
The report identified the euro as the most “credible” rival to the US dollar, with one caveat. “Its status is poised to expand, provided the euro can successfully overcome the sovereign debt crises currently faced by several of its member countries and can avoid the moral hazard problems associated with bail-outs of countries within the European Union,” the report said.
报告认为欧元是美元最“可信”的对手,但有一个需要留意的问题。“欧元的地位必将增强,只要欧元能够成功化解多个成员国目前面临的主权债务危机,并能够避免与纾困欧盟成员国相关的道德风险问题。”
On China, the report noted that authorities there had already started “internationalising” the renminbi by developing an offshore market in the currency and encouraging the use of the renminbi in settling and invoicing international trade transactions.
对于中国,报告指出,官方通过发展离岸人民币市场和鼓励人民币在国际贸易结算和计价中的使用,已经启动了人民币的“国际化”进程。
“A larger role for the renminbi would help resolve the disparity between China’s great economic strength on the global stage and its heavy reliance on foreign currencies,” the report said.
“人民币角色的提升,将有助于解决中国在全球舞台上的强大经济实力和中国仍严重依赖外国货币这两者之间的脱节。”
The scenario presented by the World Bank means that financial institutions will have to “adapt fast to keep up,” said Justin Yifu Lin, the group’s chief economist.
世行首席经济学家林毅夫表示,世行描绘出的情形意味着,金融机构必须“尽快适应,跟上形势”。
标签:美元 经济 货币
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2011-05-18 09:35 编辑:典典
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