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亚洲开发银行描绘“亚洲世纪”

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小编摘要:亚洲开发银行称,如果保持现在的经济增长速度并战胜许多挑战,到本世纪中期,亚洲将再有多达30亿人可能晋升富裕阶层。

亚洲开发银行描绘“亚洲世纪”


 
The Asian Development Bank says as many as three billion more people in Asia could be well off by the middle of the century if growth rates continue and a host of challenges are met.

亚洲开发银行称,如果保持现在的经济增长速度并战胜许多挑战,到本世纪中期,亚洲将再有多达30亿人可能晋升富裕阶层。

The Asian Development Bank says with global economic growth shifting to Asia, this could become an "Asian Century”"

亚洲开发银行说,随着全球经济增长中心转向亚洲,世界可能迎来一个崭新的“亚洲世纪”。

The non-profit development lender says if Asia’s fast growth rates continue and certain daunting challenges are met, the region by 2050 could account for half of all global production, trade and investment.

亚行这个非营利开发机构说,如果亚洲经济继续保持快速增长,并战胜某些艰巨的挑战,到2050年,该地区可能占全球产出、贸易和投资的一半份额。

In a draft report presented Wednesday at the ADB's annual meeting in Hanoi, the bank said under this scenario Asia’s gross domestic product would soar to $148 trillion, compared with just $16 trillion today.

亚行星期三在河内举行年会时发布的一份报告草案称,在这种情况下,届时亚洲的生产总值将高达148万亿美元,相比之下,目前仅为16万亿美元。

And, three billion more Asians would enjoy a prosperous standard of living.

另外,届时亚洲将再有30亿人过上富裕生活。

But that outcome is not assured. Rajat Nag, managing director general for the ADB, says economic growth must be inclusive or it could be compromised. He says corruption and a lack of enterprise also threaten Asia’s potential.

不过这种情况并不确定。亚行常务总干事纳格说,经济增长必须是广泛性的,否则结果将大打折扣。他说,腐败和缺乏冒险精神也威胁到亚洲的增长潜力。

"If Asia could address these, what we call the three 'I’s,' inequities, institutional deficiencies, and innovation, then Asia might be able to avoid the middle income trap and move onto this higher trajectory of the Asian Century," he said.

他说:“如果亚洲可以解决我们所说的三“I”问题,即不公平,缺陷机制和创新,那么亚洲或许可以避免陷入中等收入陷阱,并走向较高的亚洲世纪这一轨道。”

The ADB also lays out a "middle income trap" scenario under which Asia’s fastest growing economies - China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam - slow down over the next several years and income levels stagnate.

亚行还列出了所谓的“中等收入陷阱”,在这种情形中,亚洲增长最快的经济体 中国、印度、印尼和越南,今后几年经济增速减慢,收入停止增长。

Under this scenario, Asia’s GDP would reach only 32 percent of global production and per capita by 2050 - much less than under the best case scenario.

在这种情况下,到2050年亚洲的生产总值将仅占全球总产出的32%。人均产出将比最好的情形要低很多。

Nag says even if the Asian century becomes a reality, the region will still lag behind the industrialized Western nations.

纳格说,就算能够实现亚洲世纪,该地区将仍然落后于西方工业化国家。

"Asia has some major challenges. If those challenges are faced squarely now, Asia can be more prosperous," he said. "But, even then, Asia would be, as I said, at 38, [$38,000], $39,000 per capita in 2050 in purchasing power parity terms, still be just slightly over the global average but certainly far short of the American or the European average."

他说:“亚洲面临一些巨大挑战。如果现在正视那些挑战,亚洲将能够更加繁荣。但是,就算到2050年,根据购买力平价计算的亚洲人均产出将达到3万8000、3万9000美元,将仍只略高于全球平均值,但依然远低于美国或欧洲的平均值。”

The ADB says that at present, half of all Asians live without basic sanitation and 900 million of them lack access to electricity.

亚行表示,目前,亚洲一半的人没有基本的卫生条件,9亿人缺乏电力供应。

The report on Asian growth will be discussed at the ADB's annual meeting this week. Finance officials from 61 governments, including donor countries such as the United States and Australia, and developing nations throughout Asia, are at the conference.

这周举行的亚行年会将讨论这份亚洲增长报告。来自61个国家政府的财政官员,包括美国和澳大利亚以及整个亚洲的发展中国家,参加这次年会。 

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2011-05-06 12:06 编辑:典典
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