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本·拉登之死“市值”几何?

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小编摘要:按照金融市场的最初反应估算,本·拉登之死的“市值”接近750亿美元。

The official bounty for Osama bin Laden’s capture of $25m proved insufficient for associates to betray him during a decade as the world’s most wanted man. Perhaps the US government could have saved itself time and effort by offering something more akin to a market price, which is closer to $75bn judging by the financial world’s initial reaction to his death.


过去十年中,本·拉登(Osama bin Laden)一直是全球头号通缉犯,事实证明,2500万美元的官方悬赏未能诱惑手下背叛他。如果美国政府一开始就把赏金设定地更接近市场价值,或许早就省却了不少时间和精力。按照金融市场的最初反应估算,本·拉登之死的“市值”接近750亿美元。

 

拉登

 


Equity futures jumped and oil prices fell late on Sunday, moderating by morning. Even with the more restrained half a per cent opening gain in the S& 500, though, owners of US equities were about $70bn richer. And if the initial $1.75-a- barrel drop in crude futures could be sustained for just a month – WTI rebounded later – global energy consumers would be about $5bn better off.


周日晚间,股指期货大涨,油价下跌,早盘逐渐回稳。相比而言,标准普尔的开盘涨幅并不大,只有0.5%,但即使以这样的涨幅计算,美国股票的持有者也净赚了约700亿美元。原油期货开盘时下跌了每桶1.75美元,这个跌幅哪怕只维持一个月(西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格不久后回升),全球消费者就能节约大约50亿美元。


The fact that these dollar figures are nearly identical to those on 15 December 2003, the Monday morning after Saddam Hussein was captured, suggests that traders buy or sell on headlines and ask questions later. If killing the terrorist mastermind does as little to hamper al-Qaeda’s activities as Mr Hussein’s capture did to quell the Sunni insurgency, then the ultimate impact will be fleeting or even negative. Indeed, equities shed all of their gains by the end of the day after his capture.


上述数字与萨达姆?侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)被捕日(2003年12月15日,周一)的早盘变化几乎完全一样,这表明交易员通常是看着大新闻做交易,过一段时间才会提疑问。如果击毙这个恐怖分子头目对于遏制“基地”组织活动的效果,像当年抓获萨达姆对平息逊尼派骚乱的效果一样小的话,那么此消息对市场的影响就可能是转瞬即逝的,甚至可能最终是负面的。事实上,在抓获萨达姆之后的那个交易日,股市前日录得的所有涨幅到收市时已丧失殆尽。


But, leaving knee-jerk reactions aside, perhaps we give markets too little credit. Take the far larger impact of the September 2001 terrorist attacks, which wiped some $1,400bn off US equity markets once they reopened days later. The attacks caused insured losses of nearly $40bn, cost New York City alone about $95bn in economic activity, sapped $10bn in revenue from US airlines and spawned wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that have cost $1,290bn. In other words, the market got the economic cost almost exactly right.


不过,撇开那些条件反射式的反应不谈,或许我们低估了市场的估价能力。以2001年9月恐怖袭击的影响为例:几天之后,美国股市重新开盘时,损失了大约1.4万亿美元的市值。9·11恐怖袭击造成了将近400亿美元的保险损失;在经济活动方面,仅纽约市就蒙受了大约950亿美元的损失;美国航空业收入下降了100亿美元;由此引发的伊拉克和阿富汗战争花费了1.29万亿美元。换句话说,市场对9·11事件经济损失的估计几乎完全正确。


Even initial gains on a villain’s capture are real if quickly monetised. Perhaps victory in the war on terror might be swifter if informants were persuaded to accept payment in stock futures.


抓获一个恶棍的收益,即使只是初始收益,如果能迅速兑现为金钱的话,也是实实在在的。如果当初美国能说服线人以股指期货的形式领取赏金,或许反恐战争的胜利能来得早些。

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2011-05-05 09:50 编辑:kuaileyingyu
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