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油价高涨原因何在?

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小编摘要:由于全球市场原油价格攀高,来自消费者、业界以及政治家的抱怨声也不绝于耳。油价高涨原因何在?

As the price of crude oil rises on world markets, complaints from consumers, industries and politicians are also on the rise. Some blame the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries, the cartel known as OPEC, while others blame unrest in the Middle East and North Africa and still others blame market speculators.

由于全球市场原油价格攀高,来自消费者、业界以及政治家的抱怨声也不绝于耳。一些人指责石油输出国组织欧佩克,一些人将此归咎于中东和北非的混乱局势,而另一些人则把矛头指向了投机商。

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder has formed a Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force Working Group to look into possible fraud in energy markets, but the price may be driven more by investment trends.

美国司法部长埃利克·霍德尔已组成金融欺诈执法工作组调查能源市场可能存在的欺诈行为。然而,专家认为,油价可能更多地是由投资趋势所驱动。

Energy analysts see some of the usual factors driving oil prices this year, including increased demand in rapidly developing nations like India and China, restrictions on drilling in some areas like the eastern coast of the United States and unrest in oil-producing countries like Libya. But petroleum has also become a favored asset for investors looking for future profits and their dollars sometimes distort the market.

能源分析师列出了今年油价上涨的一些常规因素,这包括印度和中国等快速发展中国家的需求增加,美国东海岸等一些地区的采油限制,以及利比亚等产油国的骚乱。但是,石油也已经成为寻求未来获利的投资者喜爱的投资资产,他们的资金有时对市场造成扭曲。

Most investment money these days, from individual investors as well as from institutions, charitable groups and even governments, is now in various types of managed funds. Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service says the managers of those funds can have a big impact on commodity prices, including the price of oil.

今时今日,来自个人和机构投资者以及来自慈善团体甚至政府的大多数投资资金,都是各式各样的管理基金。美国石油价格信息服务公司的汤姆·克洛萨指出,这些基金的经理能够对大宗商品价格造成巨大影响,包括油价。

"Probably no one is breaking any rules, but a couple of key strokes by a money manager can move millions and billions of dollars into a market, and affect the price of something which is a life blood for consumers and people on the margins of society all over the world," said Kloza.

克洛萨说:“也许无人能够打破规则,但基金经理的几个键盘操作能将数百万甚至数十亿美元的资金灌入市场,并对消费者赖以生存的商品价格和全世界处于社会边缘的人们造成影响。”

He says governments can't eliminate all speculation from the market, but that some kind of regulation is needed, especially outside the United States.

他说,政府无法消除所有的市场投机行为,但需要进行一些监管,特别是美国之外。

"I think unfettered is unforgivable and oil futures markets, particularly offshore, are largely unfettered," he said.

克洛萨说:“我认为放任不管是不能原谅的,石油期货市场,尤其是离岸市场,大体上是放任不管。”

Speaking at a meeting in Kuwait this week, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri said world oil prices are now being driven more by speculation than supply and demand. Kloza and other analysts do not believe speculation plays a large role in the price rise, but they are not putting all the blame on OPEC either.

石油输出国组织欧佩克秘书长巴德里最近在科威特举行的一个会议上发表讲话称,目前全球油价正更多地由投机而不是由供需基本面驱动。克洛萨和其他分析师并不认为投资是造成油价上涨的主要因素,但他们也没有将此完全归咎于欧佩克。

Saudi Arabia, the OPEC member nation with the world's largest reserves, has cut back on some of its production, thereby limiting supply and driving up prices, according to OPEC critics. But Tom Kloza believes OPEC leaders themselves are concerned about high prices.

据欧佩克的批评者所说,全球石油蕴藏量最大的国家、欧佩克成员沙特阿拉伯已经削减了一些石油产量,从而导致供应受限和油价攀升。但汤姆·克洛萨相信欧佩克领导人自己也对高油价感到担忧。

"I think that many of the moderates, the doves within OPEC, are very uncomfortable with where prices are heading, because if we keep heading at this pace, we will open the door for some alternative technologies that would otherwise need subsidies or some sort of government give outs," said Kloza.

克洛萨说:“我认为欧佩克内部的许多中间派对于油价走势感到非常不安,因为如果油价保持现在这种涨势,我们将为一些替代能源技术打开大门,那些技术将需要补贴或某种政府补助。”

Some non-OPEC countries, particularly China, may be playing a big role in driving up oil prices and not just through their demand, according to Peter Zeihan, Vice President of Analysis at the global intelligence company Stratfor in Austin, Texas. He agrees with Kloza that investment in oil is the key factor, but he says the increase in money available to invest is also important.

总部设在德克萨斯州奥斯汀市的Stratfor全球战略情报中心副总裁彼得·扎汉说,一些非欧佩克成员国,尤其是中国,可能对油价造成很大影响,而且不仅仅是因为它们的石油需求。他和克洛萨都认为投资是个主要因素,但他说可用于投资的资金增长也很重要。

"Back in the year 2000 the investing community as a whole made up about 10 percent of long positions in the oil market and now they are up to 40 percent," said Zeihan. "So you add that many new players and that much new money, but you do not add any more than a 10 percent increase in oil supply and, of course, you are going to have higher prices."

扎汉说:“2000年时,投资资金在石油市场多头头寸中所占的比例约为10%,而现在已经占到40%。因此,增加了这些新的市场参与者和大量新的投资资金,但石油供应的增加幅度不超过10%,当然油价就会上升。”

While that investment money comes from all over the world, Zeihan says one of the most significant contributors has been China, which takes in dollars from the United States and other nations that import its products. He says China has put much of that money into oil futures.

虽然投资资金来自全球各地,但是扎汉说,其中最主要的资金来源地之一是中国。他说,中国从进口其产品的美国和其它国家那里获得美元,并将那些钱中的大部分投资于石油期货。

But the Stratfor analyst says the fundamental laws of supply and demand always win out eventually and then, as happened in 1998, 2001, and, most recently and dramatically in 2008, the price drops.

但这位Stratfor公司的分析师说,供需的基本法则最终总是决定性因素,就像1998、2001和最近也是波动最大的一年2008年发生的那样,价格会下降。

"Sooner or later the fundamentals are going to overpower the investor fervor," he said. "It happens every few years. Eventually the fundamentals will overpower any exuberance on the market and you will have a sudden, rapid sustained price drop over the course of a few weeks.

扎汉说:“迟早供需基本面将盖过投资热。这种情况每几年就会出现。最终基本面将压倒市场繁荣,油价将在几个星期里突然地持续迅速下跌。”

Zeihan is not predicting when that will happen. In the meantime, he sees signs that higher prices are encouraging more conservation and driving sales of fuel-efficient cars, but he does not see the development of an alternative to oil any time soon.

扎汉没有预测油价将于何时下跌。与此同时,他看到有迹象显示油价升高正鼓励更多的保守消费模式和带动燃油经济型汽车的销售,但他并不认为石油替代品会很快发展。

"In the United States we have proven that high prices were certainly exactly what was necessary to make hybrids very popular, but in terms of any other energy source, there is really nothing on the horizon," he said.

扎汉说:“在美国我们已经证实高油价对于混合动力车受到青睐显然是必要的,但是谈到其它能源,还真没有什么可替代石油的。”

Zeihan says there is no other transportation fuel as dense in energy, as flexible and as easy to transport and use as petroleum. Natural gas from shale may help alleviate some of the U.S. demand, he says, but that will require a big investment in infrastructure. He says electric cars, recharged from power supplied by expanded nuclear plants, looked promising until the recent nuclear accident in Japan. For the foreseeable future, Zeihan says, the world depends on oil and consumers will have to put up with the frequent price fluctuations.

扎汉说,没有哪种其它交通燃料能像石油一样密集、灵活、易于运输和使用。他说,来自页岩中的天然气可能帮助美国缓解一些需求,但这将需要基础设施方面的大量投资。他说,在最近的日本核事故发生前,电动汽车的前景一度看好,这些电动汽车用扩增的核电厂供应的电力充电。对于可预见的未来,扎汉说,全球还得依赖石油,消费者将不得不忍受油价的频繁波动。

 

标签:油价 石油 经济
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2011-05-03 09:42 编辑:典典
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